Andy Richardson
The great thing about the first week of the playoffs is you get to watch four games between eight teams who might all be eliminated just one week later. And it's too early for predictions (and I was wrong on three of my week 18 guesses anyway), but I think there's at least a decent chance that that will be the case a week from now. But hey, let's get right to it....
Jets-Bengals: I heard a lot of talk last week saying the Jets wouldn't win this game because they had a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start, on the road. To me that take just missed the point. The Jets aren't a passing team; how can something a team has no intention (or need) to do be the critical element to losing? I don't know if "Defense Wins Championships" still applies these days, but it can definitely spell the difference between a pair of closely matched teams in a first-round playoff matchup. Don't get me wrong, Mark Sanchez played great. Should have had a long TD to Braylon Edwards, again; a bad end-zone drop, which is why the Browns were willing to get rid of him and why you have to wonder if the Jets will try to lock him up long-term anytime soon. A nice athletic play on the touchdown to Dustin Keller, too. Sanchez can play; we've felt that way since he was drafted. He threw 20 interceptions, but he played fairly well down the stretch and sure played well in his first playoff game. Watching it, I was wondering if Mike Holmgren considered firing Eric Mangini on that basis alone: "So, you traded the rights to draft Sanchez to the team that fired you. What were you thinking with that one? Goodbye."
Other fantasy stuff: nice to see the Jets dust off Dustin Keller. He'll probably be overdrafted again next season, with me one of the guilty parties. It's tricky, because if and when the Jets do pass the ball, he's at least the second-best option on the team. But there are a lot of weeks when they don't pass and don't have to pass; he's sort of like Todd Heap some years in that respect. Presuming teams do a little better against New York's running game, maybe it will be the year Keller was supposed to have this year. Cotchery should be a nice possession receiver if the passing game has to do a little more. Edwards, I'm done with him. Can't be counted on. Shonn Greene, well, he's why Thomas Jones won't get a raise; kid can play. For the Bengals, I think they need a few more receiving options there, because Coles and Caldwell aren't it. And maybe Carson Palmer needs an offseason to get healthier. Cedric Benson, though: borderline first-round pick next year.
Eagles-Cowboys: I thought the Eagles would be better in the rematch, but they really weren't. Their offense basically had a single good play before the game was over. I guess I understand why a lot of Eagles fans are ready to move on from Donovan McNabb. Because they've seen him, with all his good games and bad ones, and think it's time to see something else. I guess they feel the same way about Andy Reid. You sometimes hear people say, Eagles fans should appreciate how good they've been for years. And granted, they've won a bunch of first-round playoff games, and went to a Super Bowl. But I also can't blame them for saying, "We haven't actually won one. Why should we want another year that ends the same way?" Clearly, the Eagles need to change things up on offense so that they're slightly more of a running team. They can't expect to pass a team with a really good pass rush into oblivion. They've got a nice trio of pass catchers there, and in fairness, they really got hit by injuries this season -- at linebacker from Day 1, and then on the offensive line late. They need to be healthier, and better running the ball, and maybe things will be better. But it's hard to be optimistic after you lose a game like that.
For Dallas, kudos to Roy Williams for making a few catches, but boo to him for falling down without being touched on what should have been an easy touchdown. I'm sure many others noticed the Cowboys ran the exact same screen play when they were down near the goal line the next time, although with Miles Austin lined up where Williams had been, and he didn't trip over the painted hash mark on his way into the end zone. Interesting to see Marion Barber getting only a few carries before aggravating an injury or just being pushed aside by the clearly more explosive and dangerous Felix Jones, who will likely be drafted higher a year from now. Jason Witten, another game when he got stopped just short of the end zone after a reception, frustrating for those of us who have him.
Ravens-Patriots: I'm not going to pile on to the End of the Patriots Dynasty talk, beyond saying, well, the mystique is certainly gone right now. I heard a radio interview with Terrell Suggs after the game, where he used the phrase, "a good old humbling ___ whupping," and that was basically the case. If the Ravens simply used Ray Rice instead of wasting time giving the ball to Willis McGahee, it would have been even uglier for the Patriots. What a game for Rice; for the Ravens defense. Just impressive. I don't know if they can win in Indy, but they came very close to beating the Colts during the season. I'm not going to underestimate them again this week.
As for the Patriots, they've got some problems, but they're probably not "done." They've got some good young defensive players, and they'll add more. I wonder if they'll target a bona fide threat at tight end and running back, rather than the retreads they've brought in in recent years; clearly no one fears their running game. Julian Edelman is a good young player, maybe Brandon Tate emerges, and oh yeah they've got the Raiders' first-round pick a year from now.... they've got some issues, but I'm not counting them out just yet, in fantasy or otherwise.
Packers-Cardinals: Well, Wow. If you were in one of those playoff fantasy leagues, this was pretty much the game to have the quarterbacks and receivers from. (As expected.) Kurt Warner had 4 incompletions. Four! And almost lost, when everyone from the coaching staff (quick timeout, rather than a spike and run another play) to kicker (I knew he was going to miss) almost choked the game away at the end of regulation. But, the defense finally made a play, their first since early in the game. And the Cardinals advance. Into what figures to be another wild shootout at New Orleans next week. Can Arizona win two such games in a row? Well, they almost did it in last year's playoffs, so you never know.
I left the Packers behind a couple of years ago, but I'm not going to sit here and deny how good they are, either. Their defense is better than it showed Sunday (Arizona's, I'm not so sure about); when healthy, and maybe adding another player or two, they're far more competent. And their offense has playmaking receivers all over the place, a running back who I might slightly underrate, and a quarterback who, although yes he holds the ball too long, throws a pretty good pass. (He does not, however, know how to dress himself yet, judging by some of his post-game press conferences. Yesterday he appeared to be wearing David Byrne's suit.) Some great throws, and some amazing catches by Greg Jennings, who apparently was saving it up all season for this one game; small comfort to fantasy owners, but enough that he won't slip too far in drafts next year. ("You disappointed me all season, but man, heckuva game out there, dude.") Nor should he. And where will Jermichael Finley rank among tight ends on draft day next year? Fourth? Fifth? Not much lower, if at all.
It's too early to pick next week's game, but let's just say that whereas three of this week's games were one-sided, I expect things to be far different next week. There will be eight good teams playing four good games, featuring the NFL's faces of yesterday (Favre, Warner), today (Manning, Brees), and tomorrow (Austin, Rice, Rice, Greene). For one week at least, though, they'll all be today's stars.
It's a great game.
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