Ian Allan
You don’t see many quarterbacks having much success as rookies. By my count, only six ever have won 9-plus games in their first season.
But I am seeing a trend for those who have had some immediate success -- at least in terms of wins and losses. (And we’re in the middle of great run for rookie quarterbacks right now; three of those six big winners have come in the last two years – Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez). The recipe seems to be to have them throw the ball as little as possible.
Rookie quarterbacks who have been winners have been on teams that have emphasized the run. It’s not that they’ve been great players. Put any of them in a pass-heavy offense and they would have struggled. But by placing them in a ground-oriented system, they’ve been better able to hide their deficiencies while learning on the job.
The chart below shows the 10 teams in the last 15 years that have run the ball over 54 percent of the team. Of the top 6 teams (and this is from 469 possible teams), five were quarterbacked by rookies – and rookies who finished with winning records in their first year.
Because of space limitations, I don’t have the names of the quarterbacks listed. They are as follows: Pittsburgh (2004, 2005) had Ben Roethlisberger in his first two years. Sanchez, Flacco and Ryan, obviously, are there. For the 2003 Ravens, Kyle Boller started nine games, going 5-4. Tennessee in 1997 was quarterbacked by Steve McNair, in his 3rd year. The Steelers in 1997 and 2001 were quarterbacked by Kordell Stewart, in his 3rd and 7th years. And Michael Vick quarterbacked Atlanta in 2004.
Other quarterbacks who won 8-plus games as rookies include Kyle Orton (10-5 in 2005), Chris Chandler (9-4 in 1988) and Vince Young (8-5 in 2006).
When Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen come into the league next year, therefore, it looks like the best way to bring them along will be to not ask much of them right away. Better to protect them with the ground game, then slowly open things up in the second, third and fourth seasons.
TEAMS RUNNING THE BALL THE MOST, 1995-2009
Teams calling the highest percentage of running plays in the last 15 years:
Pass Run Pct Year Team
394 618 61.1% 2004 Pittsburgh (rookie QB)
423 607 58.9% 2009 NY Jets (rookie QB)
411 549 57.2% 2005 Pittsburgh
466 592 56.0% 2008 Baltimore (rookie QB)
451 560 55.4% 2008 Atlanta (rookie QB)
456 553 54.8% 2003 Baltimore (rookie QB)
452 541 54.5% 1997 Tennessee
485 580 54.5% 2001 Pittsburgh
445 524 54.1% 2004 Atlanta
486 572 54.1% 1997 Pittsburgh
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