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Tight ends: 2-point conversions declining

Posted Jan. 27 at 02:52 AM

As I'm sorting through the 2009 stats and merging them into the existing files we keep around here, I notice that tight ends (for reasons I can't explain) haven't scored many 2-point conversions lately. Dustin Keller, believe it or not, was the only tight end to catch a 2-point converison last year. The prev

The previous year, only two tight ends scored on those plays - Casey Fitzsimmons and Alex Smith.

What the heck is happening here? Back in the 2002 and 2003 season, tight ends caught 17 2-point conversions (8 in 2002 and 9 in 2003).

More than anything else, I think it's just chance. Luck.

According to my numbers, tight ends caught 194 touchdown passes last year - the most ever. And they caught over 27 percent of all touchdown passes; that's the highest number I've got on record, and my figures go back to 1988. So it makes no sense that they've caught only 3 of the league's 52 successful 2-point conversions in the last two years. Considering the number of talented tight ends out there and the roles they're being used in, about 5-7 of those plays is a more realistic estimate.

Also note that 2-point conversions have also fallen in popularity. There were 40 and 47 of these plays (successful scores, that is) in the 2001-2002 seasons. Now we've dipped down to 21, 30, 28 and 24 in the past four years.

So there you go. Not all that interesting (we're talking about just a handful of points), but I thought I'd pass it along.



PERCENTAGE OF 2-POINT CONVERSIONS SCORED BY TIGHT ENDS, 1999-2009

  Year  Tot  TD  Pct
  1999  31    5    16%
  2000  35    7    20%
  2001  40    5    13%
  2002  47    8    17%
  2003  29    9    31%
  2004  37    6    16%
  2005  27    5    19%
  2006  21    5    24%
  2007  30    4    13%
  2008  28    2      7%
  2009  24    1      4%

-Ian Allan


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