Andy Richardson
You hear a lot in fantasy circles about wide receivers breaking out in their third season in the league. There are a handful of examples of that from last season, including Sidney Rice, the Giants' Steve Smith, and Mike Sims-Walker. The idea has some merit.
But only some. Looking back over the past decade, more wide receivers have had their breakout seasons in year 1 or 2 than in year 3, by a nearly 60-40 margin.
The table below shows the 33 wide receivers drafted in a 10-year period from 1998 to 2007 who have had a "breakout" season at any point in their first three years. (For our purposes, we've defined breakout as any season with 1,000 receiving yards.)
Of those 33 wideouts who fit the criteria, four (Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, Michael Clayton, Marques Colston) excelled in their rookie seasons. Fifteen more broke out with 1,000-yard seasons in year 2. The remaining 14 (42 percent) put up 1,000-yard season in year 3.
With that in mind, there's no need to go overboard targeting wideouts drafted in 2008 -- players like Donnie Avery, Devin Thomas, Jordy Nelson and Malcolm Kelly -- as breakout candidates this season. The best receivers from that draft class are more likely to have already had their breakout seasons, like DeSean Jackson (1,156 in year 2) and to a lesser extent Eddie Royal (980 in year 1), as to hit those numbers in year 3. Most likely, the 2009 draft class will produce as many if not more 1,000-yarders this season than 2008's will.
The yardage totals over the first three seasons for those 33 wideouts, sorted by when they first broke 1,000 yards, are presented below. (Initial 1,000-yard seasons for each player in bold.)
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Player
1377 623 1402 Anquan Boldin
1313 1413 1437 Randy Moss
1038 1202 760 Marques Colston
1193 372 356 Michael Clayton
788 1635 1363 Torry Holt
780 1409 946 Larry Fitzgerald
464 1338 430 Germane Crowell
756 1331 984 Calvin Johnson
309 1325 1265 Brandon Marshall
536 1240 896 Koren Robinson
329 1166 1355 Chad Johnson
473 1156 1598 David Boston
976 1142 688 Andre Johnson
713 1081 877 Darrell Jackson
995 1022 589 Dwayne Bowe
273 1008 1325 Plaxico Burress
741 1006 600 Rod Gardner
455 1006 328 Nate Burleson
92 1006 712 Steve Breaston
632 920 1292 Greg Jennings
512 884 1289 Braylon Edwards
154 872 1110 Steve Smith (Car.)
370 868 1264 Laveranues Coles
843 743 1292 Lee Evans
319 716 1382 Javon Walker
817 687 1310 Roy Williams
986 669 1097 Kevin Johnson
525 628 1084 Ashley Lelie
63 574 1220 Steve Smith (NYG)
446 506 1202 Roddy White
219 490 1071 Marty Booker
40 433 1105 Santana Moss
396 141 1312 Sidney Rice
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