Factoid
Never trust a running back over 30. You hear that a lot from followers of the NFL.
And it’s an idea that’s been supported in recent weeks, with LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook getting kicked to the curb. Running back, it seems, is a young man’s position.
But is it actually true?
While we are not going to argue that the typical running back peaks when he is 30 or 31, there are certainly plenty of productive running backs at that age. In each of the last 12 seasons, in fact, there has been at least running back over 30 who’s run for over 1,000 yards.
So while maybe some running backs burn out around 30 (Clinton Portis comes to mind as a back who’s getting old in a hurry), we think it’s overly simplistic to simply downgrade everyone who’s 30-plus years old.
That makes about as much sense as looking the first-year production of Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Donald Brown and saying, “See, you should never draft a rookie running back.”
In the chart below, ages indicate the player’s age at the end of the season.
30-YEAR-OLDS WHO’VE RUN FOR 1,000-PLUS YARDS, 1998-2009
Yds Year Player, team (age)
1491 1998 Barry Sanders, Det. (30)
1397 1999 Emmitt Smith, Dall. (30)
1210 1999 Ricky Watters, Sea. (30)
1139 2000 Lamar Smith, Mia. (30)
1203 2000 Emmitt Smith, Dall. (31)
1242 2000 Ricky Watters, Sea. (31)
1206 2001 Garrison Hearst, S.F. (30)
1021 2001 Emmitt Smith, Dall. (32)
1021 2002 James Stewart, Det. (30)
1308 2003 Curtis Martin, NYJ (30)
1420 2003 Priest Holmes, K.C. (30)
1031 2003 Eddie George, Tenn. (30)
1635 2004 Corey Dillon, N.E. (30)
1697 2004 Curtis Martin, NYJ (31)
1860 2005 Tiki Barber, NYG (30)
1416 2005 Warrick Dunn, Atl. (30)
1014 2005 Mike Anderson, Den. (32)
1146 2006 Fred Taylor, Jac. (30)
1662 2006 Tiki Barber, NYG (31)
1140 2006 Warrick Dunn, Atl. (31)
1202 2007 Fred Taylor, Jac. (31)
1312 2008 Thomas Jones, NYJ (30)
1402 2009 Thomas Jones, NYJ (31)
1121 2009 Ricky Williams, Mia. (32)
—Ian Allan
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Posted by ADAM HOLTZ | Mar. 01 at 08:47 AM
Perhaps saying that the big 3-0 is a death knell is too much, but what about saying that a 32nd birthday is cause for concern? Three times in 12 years seems more an exception than a rule....
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Mar. 01 at 12:34 PM
Why do we pick the number 30? Purely because two numbers are changing rather than one. It isn't a significant number. The change from 29 to 30, in my opinion, isn't any more severe than from 27 to 28 or from 28 to 29. There are plenty of very good 30-year-old running backs. Looking at the numbers, it seems to me that backs are far more likely to wear out -- to hit the wall -- at 31 or 32. I think 31, not 30, is the age where it makes more sense to start getting concerned about a guy wearing out. And backs seem to be really beating the odds if they can still do it at 32-plus. A factor in this whole deal, I think, is conditioning and diet. Players do a better job nowadays of preparing and maintaining their bodies. In the last 12 seasons (as shown above), 25 backs who were 30-plus have run for 1,000 yards. In the previous 20 years, there were only 15 running backs who were 30-plus who went for 1,000 yards.