Andy Richardson

The NFL Draft is more than six weeks away, but if you're in a dynasty league, you're probably already thinking about the top rookies. I'm picking 11th in my own rookie draft, which closes me out of the biggest names -- but won't necessarily prevent me from getting a great player. The No. 11 picks the last two years have been Hakeem Nicks and Ray Rice.

We don't know where they'll end up yet, of course, but even that doesn't always matter as much as you'd think. The aforementioned Rice, Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee and Randy Moss spring to mind as players drafted into situations with high-quality starters ahead of them, but all were able to eventually make an impact in dynasty leagues. Brandon Jackson and James Hardy are among players drafted into ideal situations to become immediate starters; neither one did.

Based strictly on talent level, name recognition, and a lot of guess work, here's my early take on how the top 10 picks in my rookie draft could go.

1. C.J. Spiller. Not much doubt about this one. He's the top running back prospect, ran a solid 4.37 40 at the combine, and is frequently compared to Chris Johnson. He'll be a top-15 NFL Draft pick -- at least -- and probably an immediate starter.

2. Jahvid Best. Best was a step faster (4.35) than Spiller at the combine, and he's also likely to be a first-round pick; top 3 in most dynasty drafts. He missed some time due to injury as a senior, but might be more explosive than Spiller. He might be the kind of player teams look to pair with a bigger back, but that's what they said about Johnson coming out.

3. Dez Bryant. Depending on where he ends up, Bryant could go this high or a little bit later in most rookie drafts. He'll definitely be the first wideout drafted and as likely as any rookie to be an immediate starter. Not a slam-dunk given character concerns and some minor injuries, but those won't scare everyone away; only some.

4. Jonathan Dwyer. Dwyer's size (6-0, 235) and ability makes him as likely as any other rookie runner to be an immediate starter and feature back. Those of us picking at the end of the first round hope he's drafted by a team that appears set at the position, so he'll fall further than he should.

5.-6.-.7. Ryan Mathews, Joe McKnight, Ben Tate. Right now, these appear to be your next tier of running backs, selected in some order in rookie drafts based on where they end up. I'm intrigued by Mathews, wary of injury concerns with McKnight, and thinking Tate is a guy who could be available at the bottom of the round -- because he's not as well known.

8. Golden Tate. Notre Dame players tend to get overrated, but the versatile Tate possesses both the talent and intangibles -- he gets open and makes plays -- to contribute right away. I'm very curious as to where he'll end up; in the right offense, he could be this year's Percy Harvin.

9. Sam Bradford. Starting quarterbacks are precious commodities in my league, so Bradford will be a first-round pick -- perhaps even more so if he lands in Washington than if the Rams take him with the top pick. So many first-rounders have started immediately as rookies the last few years that Bradford might well be the next one.

10. Dexter McCluster. McCluster surprisingly ran only a 4.58 40 at the combine. He's also a little guy (5-9, 172) -- maybe too small to be any more than a return specialist and 3rd-down back (at best). If he ends up in the right situation, though, somebody will take a flier on him early in my draft. Other possibilities here include Toby Gerhart and Jimmy Clausen.

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