Andy Richardson

I'm looking at college quarterbacks a lot right now, trying to get a sense of which guys will turn into solid pros and which ones won't. It's not an exact science, as Bobby Beathard and others who backed Ryan Leaf some years back can readily agree.

There are two quarterbacks currently projected as first-round picks: Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen. Both are coming out after their junior seasons, which might be seen as a negative. The perception exists that four-year college starters are more prepared to take on the challenges of the pro game than underclassmen.

But is it accurate? Based on an unscientific overview of the 36 QBs drafted in the first round over the last 15 years (rating players as good, bad, or mediocre, including early judgments on some of the most recent picks), quarterbacks who came out after their junior seasons don't appear any less likely to be successful at the NFL level than those who were drafted after their senior year.

Here are the dozen underclassmen selected in the first round of the last 15 drafts, with those unscientific judgments. Granted, some of these guys, especially the 2009 rookies, could still go either way. And a lot of recent guys listed as "mediocre," in both groups (Alex Smith and Brady Quinn leap to mind), could easily wind up as "bad."

Good pro     Aaron Rodgers
Good pro     Ben Roethlisberger
Good pro     Matthew Stafford
Good pro     Mark Sanchez
Good pro     Vince Young
Mediocre pro     Alex Smith
Mediocre pro     Josh Freeman
Mediocre pro     Michael Vick
Bad pro     JaMarcus Russell
Bad pro     Tim Couch
Bad pro     Rex Grossman
Bad pro     Ryan Leaf

And here are the two dozen seniors selected, with those same estimations.

Good pro     Joe Flacco
Good pro     Donovan McNabb
Good pro     Philip Rivers
Good pro     Daunte Culpepper
Good pro     Kerry Collins
Good pro     Jay Cutler
Good pro     Carson Palmer
Good pro     Eli Manning
Good pro     Peyton Manning
Good pro     Chad Pennington
Good pro     Steve McNair
Good pro     Matt Ryan
Mediocre pro     Brady Quinn
Mediocre pro     Jason Campbell
Mediocre pro     Matt Leinart
Mediocre pro     Byron Leftwich
Bad pro     Joey Harrington
Bad pro     Jim Druckenmiller
Bad pro     David Carr
Bad pro     Akili Smith
Bad pro     Cade McNown
Bad pro     Kyle Boller
Bad pro     Patrick Ramsey
Bad pro     J.P. Losman

Underclassmen QBs, last 15 years: 5 Good, 3 Mediocre, 4 Bad

Senior QBs, last 15 years: 12 Good, 4 Mediocre, 8 Bad

In both cases, I've defined two-thirds of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round as either "good" or "mediocre"; one third are defined as "bad." Allowing that there's a lot of personal opinion at work -- perhaps if you have different opinions on players, the numbers will turn out differently -- it doesn't appear to be a major concern.

Perhaps that similar track record explains why more underclassmen are being drafted in the first round than in previous years. In the last five years, seven of the 12 quarterbacks drafted in the first round have been underclassmen. (Bradford and Clausen will no doubt join that list this year.) Compare that to the previous 10 years, when only five of 23 first-round quarterbacks were underclassmen. Maybe NFL GMs aren't any more wary of selecting underclassmen QBs than I would be.

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