Ian Allan
I notice, as I poke around with the numbers, that for the first time in NFL history (modern history, anyway), three rookie quarterbacks attempted over 250 passes. Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman all started more than half of the season.
In trying to put statistical projections to all of these guys, however, I also note that just because a quarterback plays as a rookie, that doesn’t mean that he’s necessarily going to be much better in his second year. If you get out the historical numbers and look at the past guys, in fact, the stat increases from year 1 to year 2 are generally pretty modest.
This is the way it played out last year, of course. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were better, but they didn’t light the league on fire. And it was the same way with Ben Roethlisberger a few years back – great rookie season, and pretty much the same guy in his second year.
Looking at the last 20 years, I see 23 quarterbacks who attempted over 200 passes in both their first year and their second year. For this group, they completed slighter more passes in their second year (their completion percentage rose from 55 to 58 percent) and did a much better job of avoiding dumb interceptions. But otherwise, they weren’t much difference. The average yards-per-attempt increased from 6.4 to 6.5. Big deal. And the touchdown percentage number actually dropped a little.
So when quarterbacks have tended to improve a little in those second seasons, it’s not been so much that they’re a lot better. They’ve just been allowed to throw a few more passes. That’s where the slight uptick in production has come from.
In the last 10 seasons, by my count, there have been 10 quarterbacks selected in the first round who have started at least half of their rookie season. Of that 10, three put up lesser numbers in year two (when the stats are adjusted to per-game). The other seven were all nominally improved.
The trends suggest, in other words, that Stafford, Sanchez and Freeman will not be breakout quarterbacks this season.
QUARTERBACKS / FIRST TWO YEARS, 1999-2009
Showing first-round quarterbacks who started at least eight games in their first season. Shown are their rookie Fantasy Points per Game numbers (FPG1), their second-year numbers, and the improvement. Scoring system is 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, 1 for every 20 passing yards, 6 points for TDs and 4 for TD passes.
FPG1 FPG2 Imp Year
15.5 15.2 -2% 1999 Tim Couch
13.5 14.5 +8% 2002 David Carr
13.4 14.0 +5% 2002 Joey Harrington
15.8 17.3 +9% 2003 Byron Leftwich
11.6 12.9 +11% 2003 Kyle Boller
15.6 17.7 +13% 2004 Ben Roethlisberger
18.8 14.7 -22% 2006 Vince Young
16.9 8.9 -47% 2006 Matt Leinart
14.8 16.9 +14% 2008 Joe Flacco
15.9 17.5 +10% 2008 Matt Ryan
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