Ian Allan

The Rams, Lions, Giants and Kansas City were all horrible on defense last year. Can we then assume that none of those defenses will be any good this season?

Obviously, all will make player additions in the offseason, trying to plug those holes. Some will go with new coaches and new schemes – or get players back from injuries. But when a team has a bunch of problems, it’s hard to go from awful to excellent.

See the chart below. It shows the 71 teams that have allowed at least 26 points per game since the league went to the 16-game season in 1978. The chart then shows how many teams points those teams allowed the next season.

Of the 71 teams, only one ranked in the top 5 in scoring defense. That would be the 1981 New York Giants, who climbed all the way up to No. 3 in scoring defense. As I recall, they were helped along by an outside linebacker they selected early in the draft that year.

Only four others ranked in the top 7. The ‘85 Falcons finished 6th in scoring defense, and three teams finished 7th – Jets (’96), Rams (’00) and Colts (’01). Only four other teams cracked the top 10, all finishing 9th or 10th.

So overall, of those 71 previous struggling defenses, the vast majority of them weren’t anything special the next year either. It takes time to turn things around.

On the chart below, I left out 1982 and 1987, since there were player strikes those seasons (though I did include the years feeding into those seasons).

Also, I didn’t go through and carefully document all of the ties in the standings, so some of the defense rankings are likely slightly off. A team ranking 18th, for example, could potentially instead finished in a two-way tie for 17th or a three-way tie for 16th. But the numbers are pretty accurate – accurate enough to illustrate the point.


HOW BAD DEFENSES FARED THE NEXT YEAR, 1978-
How defenses allowing 26 or more points per game (in a 16-game season) have fared in the following season:

   Pts   Rk   Year
   21.9   19   1979   Baltimore Colts
   19.5   14   1980   Cincinnati Bengals
   25.9   26   1980   San Francisco 49ers
   16.1     3   1981   New York Giants
   23.6   24   1981   New Orleans Saints
   26.2   26   1982   Baltimore Colts
   19.3   10   1984   Green Bay Packers
   21.6   17   1984   St. Louis Cardinals
   25.8   24   1984   San Diego Chargers
   27.3   26   1984   Houston Oilers
   22.4   17   1985   Minnesota Vikings
   23.8   20   1985   Buffalo Bills
   25.8   23   1985   Houston Oilers
   17.5     6   1986   Atlanta Falcons
   24.6   23   1986   Cincinnati Bengals
   24.8   24   1986   San Diego Chargers
   29.6   28   1986   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   20   11   1987   Green Bay Packers
   24   21   1987   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   20.4   15   1989   Pittsburgh Steelers
   22.8   21   1990   Atlanta Falcons
   22.9   22   1990   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
   18.6   14   1991   Cleveland Browns
   19.1   15   1991   New England Patriots
   22.8   24   1992   Cincinnati Bengals
   24.8   26   1996   Arizona Cardinals
   25.6   27   1996   St. Louis Rams
   17.9     7   1997   New York Jets
   21.6   18   1997   Baltimore Ravens
   22.6   21   1997   Atlanta Falcons
   21.4   18   1998   San Diego Chargers
   22.3   20   1998   Oakland Raiders
   23   23   1998   Chicago Bears
   20.8   17   1999   Indianapolis Colts
   23.6   24   1999   Washington Redskins
   28.8   30   1999   Cincinnati Bengals
   19.1   10   2000   New Orleans Saints
   22.4   21   2000   Cincinnati Bengals
   26.2   27   2000   Cleveland Browns
   26.4   28   2000   San Francisco 49ers
   17.1     7   2001   St. Louis Rams
   17.6     9   2001   San Francisco 49ers
   19.9   15   2001   Cleveland Browns
   20.1   17   2001   San Diego Chargers
   21.4   22   2001   Arizona Cardinals
   19.6     7   2002   Indianapolis Colts
   24.8   26   2002   Buffalo Bills
   28.2   30   2002   Detroit Lions
   22.1   23   2003   Minnesota Vikings
   23.7   26   2003   Detroit Lions
   24   28   2003   Cincinnati Bengals
   28.3   32   2003   Arizona Cardinals
   19.6   11   2004   San Diego Chargers
   20.1   12   2004   Arizona Cardinals
   21.1   14   2004   Atlanta Falcons
   20.3   16   2005   Kansas City Chiefs
   23.9   25   2005   Oakland Raiders
   26.3   29   2005   Tennessee Titans
   26.8   30   2005   San Francisco 49ers
   22.9   26   2006   Houston Texans
   23.8   28   2006   St. Louis Rams
   25   31   2006   Tennessee Titans
   25.8   32   2006   San Francisco 49ers
   19.8     9   2008   Miami Dolphins
   29.1   31   2008   St. Louis Rams
   32.3   32   2008   Detroit Lions
   20.1   12   2009   Arizona Cardinals
   20.3   14   2009   Denver Broncos
   26.5   29   2009   Kansas City
   27.3   31   2009   St. Louis Rams
   30.9   32   2009   Detroit Lions
   ----   --   2010   Kansas City
   ----   --   2010   New York Giants
   ----   --   2010   St. Louis Rams
   ----   --   2010   Detroit Lions


—Ian Allan

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