Factoid
It's not official, of course, but it would be a major surprise if Sam Bradford isn't the top pick in the NFL Draft, which begins on Thursday night. If that happens, history suggests it won't be long -- as in, a matter of just a few games -- before he's on the field taking his lumps.
Teams often talk about bringing rookie quarterbacks along slowly, but that appears to go out window when it comes to selecting those players with the first pick overall. Almost without exception, they've been hurried into the lineup.
Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, there have been 18 quarterbacks selected with the first overall pick. Only two of those players, Carson Palmer and JaMarcus Russell, have attempted fewer than 100 passes as rookies. Russell, recall, held out until mid-September; otherwise Palmer would likely be the only former top pick on the list.
The rookie stats of top-pick quarterbacks, sorted by pass attempts, are presented below. We can't promise Bradford will be any good as a rookie -- note how not one of those quarterbacks completed 60 percent of his passes, and only three threw more TDs than interceptions -- but odds are he'll be active.
Att Cmp % Yds TDs INTs Player, Team (Draft year)
575 326 56.7 3739 26 28 Peyton Manning, Colts (1998)
444 233 52.5 2592 9 15 David Carr, Texans (2002)
429 214 49.9 2494 15 15 Drew Bledsoe, Patriots (1993)
399 223 55.9 2447 15 13 Tim Couch, Browns (1999)
377 201 53.3 2267 13 20 Matthew Stafford, Lions (2009)
334 181 54.2 2152 16 13 Jeff George, Colts (1990)
328 158 48.2 2158 19 16 Jim Plunkett, Patriots (1971)
293 155 52.9 1749 9 18 Troy Aikman, Cowboys (1989)
259 123 47.5 1663 7 14 John Elway, Colts (1983)
255 115 45.1 1662 13 15 Steve Bartkowski, Falcons (1975)
219 110 50.2 1371 5 9 Steve Walsh, Cowboys (89 suppl)
218 83 38.1 1410 6 24 Terry Bradshaw, Steelers (1970)
197 95 48.2 1043 6 9 Eli Manning, Chargers (2004)
165 84 50.9 875 1 11 Alex Smith, 49ers (2005)
165 71 43.0 1081 5 6 Vinny Testaverde, Bucs (1987)
113 50 44.2 785 2 3 Michael Vick, Falcons (2001)
66 36 54.5 373 2 4 JaMarcus Russell, Raiders (2007)
0 0 0.0 0 0 0 Carson Palmer, Bengals (2003)
--Andy Richardson
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