Andy Richardson

At this point we've all seen a few too many mock drafts, and with the draft over we can happily move on. But then, the conclusion of the NFL draft ushers in the beginning of dynasty drafts. I've got one coming up next Saturday, and here's about how I think the top 20 picks will go.

1. Ryan Mathews, Chargers. I'm still debating whether Mathews or C.J. Spiller should be the top pick. Spiller's the more dynamic talent, but don't undersell Mathews -- watch the guy play, and he looks like a legitimate franchise runner. Unfortunately, my draft probably won't shed any light on which player will go first in other drafts, because the same owner has traded his way into the top two picks. He'll probably draft both of them.

2. C.J. Spiller, Bills. I'm not troubled by the fact that the Bills have other runners. Eventually they'll dump Marshawn Lynch, and Fred Jackson is 29 years old. He won't keep Spiller out of the lineup for long. What I am troubled by is that Buffalo's recent moves, and draft, suggest that the team has no idea what it's doing. I don't like the Chan Gailey hire. I don't like the fact that they couldn't trade Lynch before his value was totally shot. And I don't like their really horrible trio of quarterbacks and the fact that they didn't select an offensive tackle until the fifth round this weekend. Spiller can be a star even while the team is losing, but trusting Buffalo to give him every opportunity to succeed might be a mistake.

3. Jahvid Best, Lions. Remember, this is how I think the draft will go, not necessarily how it should go. If I'm in this spot I'm running to the podium to select Dez Bryant. I think Bryant's going to be a star, while Best worries me a little bit. May never be a full-time player; I think he might end up being used like Reggie Bush in New Orleans.

4. Dez Bryant, Cowboys. I've traded my way into the fifth pick in the draft, so I hope I'm wrong about this; I'd like to get Bryant. Odds are that I'll be disappointed. Bryant should zip past Roy Williams fairly quickly.

5. Ben Tate, Texans. This is my pick, and I'm hoping for Bryant. If the top 4 go as I'm expecting, though, I'll probably take Tate here. It's not just situation; I really liked the guy coming into the draft, and I think he'll be a good fit going to Houston's blocking scheme.

Note: My team has pretty good starters at running back (Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, MJD), so I'm going with a guy who could be a legit feature back rather than a "safe" choice of a guy ticketed for a committee situation. Which pretty much describes most of the rest of the rookie tailbacks, and explains why I dealt away picks 1.10 and 1.11 for 1.05 and a second-rounder. I want a top-5 guy, not a pair of top-11 guys.

6. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos. This is just a guess, but I think the guy drafted to replace Brandon Marshall will be viewed as the clear No. 2 wideout -- some will rank him over Bryant. A running back is a possibility here, but not a certainty.

7. Montario Hardesty, Browns. That "thunk" you hear is James Davis being dropped in dynasty leagues across the country. Hardesty has a shot to be the starter in Cleveland this season, and a guy I'd consider at 1.05.

8. Sam Bradford, Rams. I'm not sure he'll go this high, but starting quarterbacks can be hard to come by in this dynasty league, and I could see him going here.

9. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals. Just a guess. In this league tight ends get a point and a half per reception, as a way to increase their value. We have flex spots that enable people to start 2 TEs if they want (I typically start Jason Witten and Brent Celek). New England's Rob Gronkowski is another possibility to be the first tight end taken.

10. Dexter McCluster, Kansas City. Somebody will jump at this guy with the idea he'll pile up both receiving and rushing stats each week. I'd consider him at this spot myself, if I'd stayed put. I just question whether he'll get enough touches in the average week to be a reliable starter.

11. Golden Tate, Seahawks. Tate should quickly ascend to the top of the depth chart here, certainly as the downfield threat. If I had kept this pick, I'd also have considered....

12. Arrelious Benn, Buccaneers. Even more so than with Tate, no one in Tampa Bay figures to keep Benn off the field.

13. Joe McKnight, Jets. LT is done, Leon Washington has been traded, and Shonn Greene can't catch. McKnight should be in a committee with Greene no later than 2011, if not sooner.

14. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots. I'm picking near the end of the second round and could see myself trying to go up and get Gronkowski, potentially.

15. Tim Tebow, Broncos. There are a couple of Colorado guys in this league, so Tebow might go earlier. They'll have to be patient, and I'm definitely not sold on the guy as an NFL-caliber quarterback, but that hasn't stopped Kyle Orton from starting a bunch of games the last few years. Tebow has landed in a pretty good situation.

16. Toby Gerhart, Vikings. This might be too low for a pretty popular college back, but let's face it: he's a handcuff for Adrian Peterson, and that might be it for the next several years.

17. Jonathan Dwyer, Steelers. He might actually go a little higher than this, even as a sixth-rounder. I'll need to check to see who owns Mendenhall. If it were me, I'd probably take him as soon as 1.12 or so.

18. Jimmy Clausen, Panthers. This seems about right for him, although Mel Kiper would have drafted him higher.

19. Colt McCoy, Browns. It's remarkable how quickly you run out of quality fantasy options in what was considered an extremely deep NFL draft. I'm considering packaging 1.05 and 2.11 and seeing if I can get up to 1.03. Because by 2.11 I'm just going to be throwing picks at wide receivers who might have no chance of even making my final roster. Anyway, somebody will likely grab McCoy here; probably the Jake Delhomme owner.

20. Anthony Dixon, 49ers. As with Dwyer, above, the Frank Gore owner is going to want this guy, even as a sixth-round pick.

The rest of the first two rounds will probably feature wideouts: Carolina's Brandon LaFell, Tennessee's Damian Williams, Tampa Bay's Mike Williams, and New England's Taylor Price. Those players will be sprinkled throughout the latter part of the second round; I'd consider Price given New England's current lack of quality depth at the position, and the passing offense.

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