Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
David Digregorio posted a note earlier in the day, noting that he didn’t believe the schedules for Houston, Tennessee and Dallas were that tough. He is a fan, apparently, not of determining strength-of-schedule by wins and losses, but by stats for specific positions.
I will warn against trying to put too much weight in those kind of numbers. I have studied strength of schedule extensively. I have all of the numbers going back to the early ‘90s (both expected schedules, and how they then turned out). And when I last spent a few days examining this, I found that the the results were stronger when you stuck to wins and losses. When you start looking at yards and rushing-passing specific touchdowns and production, the numbers just don’t work very well – there’s little correlation between projecting to have a hard schedule and that actually happening.
Nevertheless, I do have those numbers. Below are the expected strength-of-schedule numbers for the 2010 season, using the system of 6 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards. I’ve got rushing first, with yards per game, touchdowns (in 16 games) and expected fantasy points per game. Then the same for passing.
My overall recommendation, however, is to not pay too much attention to strength of schedule this year. Relative to other years, there are no teams that project to play schedules that are extremely easy or difficult.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- RUSHING
Yds TDR FPG
125 16.0 18.5 Seattle
126 15.3 18.4 Kansas City
125 15.3 18.3 San Diego
124 15.4 18.2 San Francisco
123 15.3 18.0 Denver
121 15.1 17.8 Arizona
122 14.7 17.7 St. Louis
122 14.5 17.7 Jacksonville
119 14.6 17.3 Carolina
120 13.9 17.2 Pittsburgh
120 13.9 17.2 Oakland
118 14.0 17.0 Atlanta
118 13.3 16.7 Tennessee
118 13.0 16.7 Baltimore
115 13.8 16.7 Indianapolis
114 14.0 16.7 Tampa Bay
117 12.9 16.5 Houston
118 12.0 16.3 Cincinnati
115 12.6 16.2 New Orleans
112 13.4 16.2 Washington
113 12.9 16.1 Minnesota
115 12.3 16.1 Miami
116 12.1 16.1 NY Jets
111 13.3 16.1 Dallas
115 12.3 16.0 New England
114 12.3 16.0 Cleveland
111 12.3 15.8 Green Bay
112 11.8 15.6 Detroit
111 11.3 15.3 Buffalo
107 12.2 15.3 Philadelphia
108 11.8 15.2 Chicago
108 11.6 15.2 NY Giants
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- PASSING
Yds TDP FPG
223 26.3 32.2 Washington
223 25.4 31.8 Dallas
224 24.6 31.6 Philadelphia
222 24.2 31.3 NY Giants
226 22.5 31.0 Carolina
219 24.1 30.9 Green Bay
221 23.6 30.9 Indianapolis
217 24.3 30.8 Minnesota
223 22.4 30.7 Oakland
222 22.6 30.7 San Francisco
216 24.2 30.6 Chicago
225 21.5 30.6 St. Louis
227 20.4 30.3 Tampa Bay
223 20.9 30.2 Arizona
221 21.4 30.2 New Orleans
219 22.0 30.2 Jacksonville
217 22.4 30.1 Houston
221 21.4 30.1 San Diego
217 22.2 30.1 Tennessee
221 21.3 30.0 Seattle
214 22.7 29.9 Buffalo
209 24.0 29.9 Detroit
220 20.9 29.9 Denver
214 22.4 29.8 NY Jets
219 20.9 29.7 Atlanta
219 20.8 29.7 Kansas City
215 19.6 28.8 Pittsburgh
213 19.8 28.7 Cincinnati
208 21.2 28.7 Miami
211 19.9 28.6 Cleveland
208 20.6 28.6 New England
212 19.6 28.5 Baltimore
—Ian Allan
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Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | May. 01 at 09:58 AM
Ian, No! No! No! No! Big fan of FI! You know I've used your service for several years. And now that you mention it, I certainly remember your finding that wins are predictive. And I'm sure I would have relearned it when I found your magazine in my mailbox. The last two years receiving the magazine proved quite an adventure. Both years I was scheduled to go on vacation the same time your magazine was scheduled to arrive. Two years ago it arrived the same day that we departed. last year, it I didn't get it in the mail in time for our departure. But I went to the Post Office and my carrier found it for me. Great relief. I have a note book that I wright down a lot of things that you find. And, the funny thing is that, I do believe Romo, Bryant, (especially for a rookie), Felix Jones (especially in challenge games), Miles, Schaub, Andre Johnson, and, of course, Chris Johnson will all have years which more than justify where they ere acquired. In this case of the players above, I think talent prevails over both strength of schedule and record.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 01 at 03:21 PM
David: no offense taken. I just posted those numbers because you mentioned them.