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Andy Richardson

The games are fewer, but they're more important, so let's get right to it....

Washington-Seahawks: Everyone was picking plucky, inspired Washington to upset the No. 3 seed Seahawks last week, which is why you sort of knew Seattle would hold serve. One thing Mike Holmgren has always been good at -- first in Green Bay, now in Seattle -- is impressing upon his teams the importance of home-field advantage. It helped a so-so Seahawks team get to the Super Bowl two years ago, and it got them past Washington on Saturday. Seattle still can't run the ball; surely they'll look to upgrade that position in the offseason. They can pass, though, which is why they have a puncher's chance at Green Bay: spread out the Packers' secondary with three- and four-receiver sets and get some mismatches. Only thing is that good as Seattle has been at home, they've been decidedly subpar on the road, particularly on defense. That, and Green Bay's ability to run the ball and get pressure on Matt Hasselbeck, will probably be the difference next week.

As for Washington, it's been a while since the whole rule about not being able to advance a kickoff from the spot of recovery has played a critical role in a game. Washington was on the verge of going up 21-13 but for that rule; instead, the score remained at 14-13, they missed a short field goal that watching it, I knew he was going to miss, and the rest is history. Washington has some talent there, though; if Jason Campbell has the ability to take another step forward, they could be pretty good a year from now. And the Clinton Portis-Ladell Betts tandem turned out to be the Portis show when the games got bigger, too.

Jaguars-Steelers: Like most people I imagine, I was rooting for the Jaguars in this one. Not because I'm overly fond of them, and not because I've bought into the hype about how they're going to knock off the Patriots, but rather because there's at least the possibility of that happening -- because unlike Pittsburgh, they haven't shown, this season, that they can't do it. I've seen the Steelers take on the Patriots several times, including on their homefield and when they were probably the better team, and they couldn't win then, so why would I think they'd win now? The Steelers might say they think they can win, but I think the Jaguars actually believe it. Even if it turns out that they're wrong.

Six weeks into the season, I was sure regretting my decision to use a late first-rounder in my startup dynasty league on Maurice Jones-Drew. Not anymore. Any running back who ever got overlooked on draft day or in training camp because of his size should have a picture of 5-foot-7 (at best) MJD on his wall, because the guy made big plays all over the field against the Steelers, and in the latter half of the season. (Even while backing up Fred Taylor.) Is anyone going to be surprised if he has a big game against the Patriots as a rusher, receiver, and (perhaps most importantly) a kick returner? Bill Belichick usually works to take away an opponent's most dangerous player, and this week it will have to be Jones-Drew. Against a linebacking corps that's got some age to it, MJD could be key this week.

Giants-Bucs: Score one for playing starters in meaningless games versus resting guys for the playoffs. This game was a great sign for all those fantasy leagues that play meaningful games in week 17, as the Giants won fairly handily, on the road, after playing all their starters in an effort to beat the Patriots a week earlier, while the Bucs basically shut it down after week 15. Guess the extra rest didn't help, as the Bucs looked seriously overmatched and out of it for most of the afternoon. Granted, maybe the rest was meaningless and the better team simply won (which it did), but you know NFL coaches were paying attention and may think differently about tanking the last two games of the season in the future, just as they did when the Colts did so and were upset in the playoff by the Steelers a couple of years back. Jon Gruden certainly will.

As for the Giants, I have no particular fondness for the team or Eli Manning, but he sure gets a lot of heat for a guy who's been in the league for all of four seasons and has his team in the playoffs for the third time. Yes, he's had some horrible games, both this season (against the Vikings) and in the playoffs (against Carolina two years ago). But how many teams in the league wouldn't be pretty happy to have the younger Manning as their quarterback? Teams could do far, far worse, and most do. Considering the fortunes of other recent top pick quarterbacks -- Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Alex Smith -- well, Manning is a near Hall of Famer by comparison.

One more note on the Giants: This team can find running backs. Brandon Jacobs is pretty good. Ahmad Bradshaw looks like a good young change-of-pace guy as the No. 2 next season. And then there's the guy they dealt to the Packers before the season, an undrafted guy named Ryan Grant. Can they beat the Cowboys? If Terrell Owens is out, absolutely. Even if he plays, yes. You have to respect a team that wins eight straight on the road. (This, of course, is where Eli will make me look foolish by throwing 4 interceptions or something.)

Titans-Chargers: For a little while it looked like the Chargers were going to blow their third straight playoff game at home, and then the inexorable fact that they're pretty decent and the Titans were lucky to get this far came forward and it was over. I hope San Diego enjoys this one, however, because that was it. Every year there's one team that simply has no chance in the divisional round of the playoffs, and next week it will be the Chargers. They got their playoff win, that monkey is off their back, and now they're going to go into Indianapolis -- and yes, they've won there before and beat the Colts in San Diego this season -- and get absolutely rolled. On the bright side, they needn't worry about Peyton Manning doing Shawne Merriman's "lights out" sack dance or anything, so they've got that going for them.

I wonder how Jeff Fisher is feeling this morning. He's got the makings of a really good defense, but he has to wonder about his offense. Is Vince Young really going to develop into a great NFL quarterback? Is LenDale White really a quality NFL running back? (The fact that they drafted Chris Henry in the second round this season, who is the Titans back I'll be targeting on draft day next year, suggests they're not so sure themselves.) Do they have any good receivers? The Young question is the biggest one, because obviously they're committed to him, and need him to be their leader in the future. Running backs and receivers are a lot easier to replace. With Young, a second-year guy who's shown flashes of greatness but also flashes of total incompetence (granted, his largely stone-fingered receiving corps hasn't helped), it's still unclear. I wonder what Fisher, who's a really good NFL coach, thinks.

At the end of the day, I can see upsets occurring in Dallas, Green Bay, and New England next week, but I'm not expecting them anywhere. Not only should we get No. 1 vs. No. 2 in both conferences, but it's what most people want -- the best chance for a pair of great championship games that rematch a couple of hugely hyped and pretty good games during the regular season. Will we get them? All signs point to it -- which is why, in the usually surprising NFL playoffs, nobody should be surprised if they don't happen.

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