Factoid
I touched on this subject yesterday and wanted to come back to it. The NFL has changed a lot of rules, making things easier for quarterbacks. But have those rules actually made a difference on the field?
Yes, they have.
If you look at the last 20 years, sacks are down by about 2 per game. Teams are throwing about an interception less per season. Touchdown passes are up about one per year. Passing yards are up only slightly.
And as I mentioned yesterday, quarterbacks are tending to stay healthy.
Some of the numbers …
LEAGUE AVERAGES: TD PASSES (1990-2009)
1990 20.5
1991 18.3
1992 18.4
1993 18.5
1994 20.8
1995 22.1
1996 20.9
1997 20.6
1998 21.9
1999 21.5
2000 20.5
2001 20.5
2002 21.6
2003 21.6
2004 20.4
2005 22.9
2006 20.1
2007 20.3
2008 22.5
2009 20.2
LEAGUE AVERAGES: PASSING YARDS (1990-2009)
1990 228.7
1991 211.4
1992 205.4
1993 215.4
1994 227.4
1995 235.6
1996 222.2
1997 219.4
1998 221.0
1999 228.3
2000 222.0
2001 221.0
2002 227.0
2003 213.8
2004 225.3
2005 218.2
2006 219.3
2007 228.3
2008 224.2
2009 232.3
LEAGUE AVERAGES: INTERCEPTIONS (1990-2009)
1990 17.1
1991 17.4
1992 18.5
1993 16.8
1994 16.9
1995 17.1
1996 18.1
1997 16.0
1998 17.0
1999 18.1
2000 17.1
2001 17.6
2002 16.5
2003 16.8
2004 16.4
2005 15.8
2006 16.3
2007 16.7
2008 14.5
2009 16.4
LEAGUE AVERAGES: SACKS (1990-2009)
1990 38.1
1991 35.4
1992 40.8
1993 37.7
1994 33.8
1995 35.9
1996 36.8
1997 41.3
1998 40.2
1999 40.3
2000 39.8
2001 38.6
2002 36.8
2003 34.1
2004 37.4
2005 36.9
2006 36.3
2007 34.4
2008 32.4
2009 34.4
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Moishe Steigmann | May. 14 at 06:17 AM
Thanks for the stats, Ian. But, I read them much differently than you. "Touchdown passes are up about one per year." Really? '91-'93 presented very low TD numbers. But, from '94-'09, the three LOWEST number of TDs thrown per year happened in three of the last four years. Even including those '91-'93 three years, the past few years are below the average of the past twenty. Hmm... Moving on, "Passing yards are up only slightly." Again, really? Only slightly? Take out '90, and you see a HUGE jump from most years to '09. In fact, only seven of the years between '91 and '08 come within 10 yards as '09, and two of them were '07 and '08. So, it seems like the past three years -- especially '09 -- are well above the average. "sacks are down by about 2 per game." That's it? Again, from '90-'08, only seven years were within two per game, and two of them were in '07 and '08. Indeed, there were six years which were at least 4 per game! Interceptions, "about an interception less per season." No real gripe there. In short, some of these stats do seem to support your theory about there being a big difference, and I think that the sack one is the biggest: few sacks = fewer QB hits = fewer games missed (see your previous post). That, to me, is the biggest impact of the new rules. QBs, as you noted, are missing fewer games (or, more precisely, are starting all 16 games more frequently). Thoughts? Thanks as always for your hard work an insight. You should know that for the once or twice that I gripe about your analysis, there are dozens of times when I laud it. This is one of those "once or twice" times...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 14 at 06:30 AM
When I was throwing around conclusion-type numbers, I didn't want to focus on any one or two years. Those are the ballpark figures when you compare the '90s against the last decade.