Factoid
Ben Tate in Houston, Montario Hardesty in Cleveland. Both are getting a lot of preseason attention in their efforts to emerge from potential crowded committees to start as rookies this season.
Even if one does step forward, however, expectations in their first seasons should be tempered somewhat. Over the last decade there have been 20 running backs drafted in the second round, and only eight of those players have totaled even 600 rushing and receiving yards as rookies; only four went over 1,000. Only five of those players have scored more than 4 TDs.
The numbers improve in Year 2; of the 19 selected prior to LeSean McCoy last season, 11 put up at least 600 total yards, and twice as many (eight) went over 1,000. Eight also scored more than 5 TDs.
The first- and second-year numbers for those second-rounder running backs, sorted by total yards as rookies, are presented below.
Draft Yds1 TD1 Yds2 TD2 Player
2002 1872 17 1905 14 Clinton Portis
2008 1715 12 1400 4 Matt Forte
2006 1377 16 1175 10 Maurice Jones-Drew
2001 1361 7 884 6 Anthony Thomas
2009 945 4 ??? ??? LeSean McCoy
2004 926 7 1211 5 Julius Jones
2001 908 4 1747 14 Travis Henry
2008 727 0 2041 8 Ray Rice
2005 509 2 77 1 J.J. Arrington
2004 476 3 1025 8 Tatum Bell
2002 461 1 422 2 Ladell Betts
2007 397 1 433 1 Brandon Jackson
2001 336 2 476 3 LaMont Jordan
2006 304 0 1224 7 LenDale White
2002 178 1 271 1 Maurice Morris
2004 175 3 640 4 Greg Jones
2007 172 2 3 0 Chris Henry
2007 0 0 0 0 Kenny Irons
2005 0 0 29 0 Eric Shelton
2002 0 0 636 2 DeShaun Foster
--Andy Richardson
- Comments [5]
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Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Jun. 14 at 12:07 AM
Right, but the Offensive Rookie of The Year Award has been handed out 43 times since its inception in 1967. 30 times it has gone to a running back. Not sure of the break down in terms of in what round these players were drafted, but I bet non-first rounders make up a sizable portion.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 14 at 12:30 AM
I looked it up. The most recent history (Clinton Portis and Anthony Thomas) is in your favor, but actually a sizable majority of them (23 out of 31) were first-rounders. Here are the running backs who have won Offensive Rookie of the Year, including draft round: 2007 Adrian Peterson (1st), 2005 Cadillac Williams (1st), 2002 Portis (2nd), 2001 Thomas (2nd), 2000 Mike Anderson (6th), 1999 Edgerrin James (1st), 1997 Warrick Dunn (1st), 1996 Eddie George (1st), 1995 Curtis Martin (3rd), 1994 Marshall Faulk (1st), 1993 Jerome Bettis (1st), 1991 Leonard Russell (1st), 1990 Emmitt Smith (1st), 1989 Barry Sanders (1st), 1988 John Stephens (1st), 1987 Troy Stradford (4th), 1986 Rueben Mayes (3rd), 1983 Eric Dickerson (1st), 1982 Marcus Allen (1st), 1981 George Rogers (1st), 1980 Billy Sims (1st), 1979 Ottis Anderson (1st), 1978 Earl Cambpell (1st), 1977 Tony Dorsett (1st), 1975 Mike Thomas (5th). 1974 Don Woods (6th), 1973 Chuck Foreman (1st), 1972 Franco Harris (1st), 1971 John Brockington (1st), 1969 Calvin Hill (1st), 1967 Mel Farr (1st). Looks good for either C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews or Jahvid Best this year. (Not that Tate or Hardesty might not be good too, mind you.)
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jun. 14 at 12:59 AM
There ought to be a way to combine the interaction of round chosen with the team situation and come up with a more reliable prediction. Maybe yards per rushing attempt the team had the previous year would be an interesting thing to factor in. Anyway, I like Tate's chances this year.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 14 at 02:07 AM
I think it can generally be said -- at almost any position, really -- that the higher a guy is drafted, the better chance he has of starting right away. And that is what that list of the Offensive Rookies of the Year seems to suggest. Even though Tate and Hardesty don't have to beat out superstars, they are less likely to be immediate starters than the first-rounders. Had the Texans drafted Mathews in the first, I think we could say with more confidence that he'd be the week 1 starter. Anyway, my intent isn't to predict neither guy will start as rookies. Just that the percentage of second-rounders that have been immediately successful isn't high.
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Jun. 14 at 04:26 AM
Nice. Okay, there is some very useful information there, Andy. Should the NFL retroactively pull Anthony Thomas' ROY award and give it to Tomlinson (first rounder)? The numbers say that LT should have won that. Also, Portis came out of a very week draft for offensive players. I had to look it up to believe it but only 5 offensive players from that draft have ever made a Pro-Bowl: Portis, Westbrook, Shockey, Javon Walker, and David Garrard. Anyway, I think your numbers look good. 2nd round RBs have the deck stacked against them in terms of performing at a high level in their first year.