Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
I have never liked that typical strength-of-schedule data is based on what teams did last year. What’s the strength in factoring Washington as a 4-12 opponent, when it’s clear it will be much better this year?
So I like to toss out the 2009 numbers and instead use what everyone expects out of the teams this year – in 2010. Using those numbers should give us a better idea of which teams will actually play the easiest and hardest schedules.
One of the gambling websites, Sportsbook.com, has released its expected wins and losses for each team. Rather, the over-under win totals for each team . So I plugged those numbers into our scheduling computers (and that chart appears below). Not a lot of big movers, but there are some differences.
Arizona, which projected to play the easiest schedule, drops to 7th using the Sportsbook numbers. Kansas City moves up tying for 10th to tying for the 4th-easiest schedule. And Baltimore has the largest positive shift, moving up from 20th to 8th.
Buffalo and Philadelphia are hurt the most. The Eagles drop from 24th to 30th. The Bills and Raiders tie by 14th using official numbers, but they drop to 25th and 21st using the altered numbers. Three other teams drop from having top-10 schedules to being merely average – Carolina, Tampa Bay and Denver.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – ALTERED NUMBERS
The expected strength of schedule numbers for 2010, using not last year’s wins and losses, but the over-under win totals by the Sportsbook.com website. Following each team name is its rank using the more conventional system.
Win Loss Pct.
120.0 136.0 .469 San Diego (3T)
121.5 134.5 .475 San Francisco (5)
122.0 134.0 .477 Seattle (3T)
123.0 133.0 .480 St. Louis (2)
123.0 133.0 .480 Kansas City (10T)
123.5 132.5 .482 New Orleans (6)
124.5 131.5 .486 Arizona (1)
125.0 131.0 .488 Baltimore (20T)
125.5 130.5 .490 Atlanta (13)
126.0 130.0 .492 Pittsburgh (12)
126.5 129.5 .494 NY Jets (14T)
127.0 129.0 .496 Carolina (7)
127.0 129.0 .496 Tampa Bay (8)
127.5 128.5 .498 Miami (14T)
129.0 127.0 .504 Indianapolis (22T)
129.5 126.5 .506 Denver (9)
129.5 126.5 .506 Green Bay (10T)
130.0 126.0 .508 Chicago (18T)
130.0 126.0 .508 Minnesota (18T)
130.0 126.0 .508 Washington (25)
130.5 125.5 .510 Oakland (14T)
131.0 125.0 .512 Jacksonville (28)
131.5 124.5 .514 Detroit (20T)
132.0 124.0 .516 Cleveland (22T)
132.5 123.5 .518 Buffalo (14T)
132.5 123.5 .518 NY Giants (26)
133.0 123.0 .520 New England (27)
133.5 122.5 .521 Dallas (30)
134.5 121.5 .525 Tennessee (31T)
135.0 121.0 .527 Philadelphia (24)
136.5 119.5 .533 Cincinnati (29)
137.5 118.5 .537 Houston (31T)
EXPECTED WIN TOTALS, SPORTSBOOK.COM,
Below are the win-loss over-unders by Sportsbook.com. To me, teams that look a little high include the Chargers, Steelers, Titans, Bears, Seahawks and Rams. I believe the Bears, at 8-8, are the most overvalued. Teams that look a little undervalued include the Cowboys, Giants and 49ers.
Win Loss
11.0 5.0 Indianapolis
11.0 5.0 San Diego
10.5 5.5 New Orleans
10.0 6.0 Baltimore
9.5 6.5 Dallas
9.5 6.5 Green Bay
9.5 6.5 Minnesota
9.5 6.5 New England
9.5 6.5 NY Jets
9.0 7.0 Atlanta
9.0 7.0 Pittsburgh
8.5 7.5 Miami
8.5 7.5 NY Giants
8.5 7.5 Philadelphia
8.5 7.5 San Francisco
8.5 7.5 Tennessee
8.0 8.0 Chicago
8.0 8.0 Houston
7.5 8.5 Arizona
7.5 8.5 Carolina
7.5 8.5 Cincinnati
7.5 8.5 Denver
7.5 8.5 Seattle
7.5 8.5 Washington
7.0 9.0 Jacksonville
6.5 9.5 Kansas City
6.0 10.0 Oakland
5.5 10.5 Buffalo
5.5 10.5 Cleveland
5.5 10.5 Tampa Bay
5.0 11.0 Detroit
5.0 11.0 St. Louis
—Ian Allan
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