Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
Below is a bunch of strength-of-schedule, showing which teams have strong (and weak) schedules in the first and second halves of the season. I’ve done it with both wins and in points (points allowed by opposing teams).
All the charts based on winning percentage appear first.
Big picture: It looks like Miami, Minnesota and Jacksonville project to have schedules that get easier in November and December. Their schedules start off hard, then are noticeably easier later – just hope that it’s not too late for those teams.
San Diego and St. Louis appear to have the most front-loaded schedules. They’ll play a bunch of softer-type teams first; then their schedules get harder late in the year.
But see the charts below. I’ve got a few comments on each.
All numbers, by the way, are based on how teams played last year. These are built from 2009 win-loss records, and points allowed by teams last year.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- GAMES 1-8 (WINNING PERCENTAGE)
This chart shows that St. Louis, San Diego, Chicago and Green Bay project to play the easiest schedules in the first half of the season. Miami, Jacksonville, Minnesota and Houston project to play the hardest schedules. (For most teams, these numbers represent the first nine weeks of the season (since most teams have their byes in that span).
W L Pct.
50 78 .391 St. Louis
50 78 .391 San Diego
55 73 .430 Chicago
58 70 .453 Green Bay
60 68 .469 Cincinnati
60 68 .469 Indianapolis
60 68 .469 Seattle
61 67 .477 Arizona
62 66 .484 Oakland
63 65 .492 Detroit
63 65 .492 Philadelphia
63 65 .492 Carolina
63 65 .492 San Francisco
64 64 .500 Pittsburgh
64 64 .500 Baltimore
64 64 .500 New Orleans
64 64 .500 Buffalo
64 64 .500 NY Giants
65 63 .508 NY Jets
65 63 .508 Tampa Bay
65 63 .508 Denver
66 62 .516 Dallas
66 62 .516 Washington
67 61 .523 Cleveland
67 61 .523 Kansas City
69 59 .539 Atlanta
71 57 .555 New England
72 56 .563 Tennessee
73 55 .570 Houston
73 55 .570 Minnesota
75 53 .586 Jacksonville
76 52 .594 Miami
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- GAMES 9-16 (WINNING PERCENTAGE)
Here’s the second half of the season. Look at No. 1. It’s the Dolphins – who were at the opposite end of the spectrum for their first eight games. Another poor first-half team, Minnesota, also ties for 4th. Arizona and San Francisco are the others in the top 3. The hardest schedules (projected, anyway) belong to the Bengals, Bears, Cowboys and Colts.
W L Pct.
52 76 .406 Miami
53 75 .414 Arizona
54 74 .422 San Francisco
56 72 .438 New Orleans
56 72 .438 Minnesota
56 72 .438 Seattle
58 70 .453 Atlanta
58 70 .453 Tampa Bay
58 70 .453 Kansas City
59 69 .461 Denver
59 69 .461 Carolina
62 66 .484 Pittsburgh
62 66 .484 Jacksonville
63 65 .492 NY Jets
64 64 .500 Buffalo
65 63 .508 Cleveland
65 63 .508 New England
65 63 .508 St. Louis
66 62 .516 Baltimore
66 62 .516 San Diego
66 62 .516 Oakland
67 61 .523 Detroit
67 61 .523 Houston
67 61 .523 Green Bay
68 60 .531 Tennessee
68 60 .531 Washington
70 58 .547 Philadelphia
71 57 .555 NY Giants
72 56 .563 Indianapolis
73 55 .570 Dallas
74 54 .578 Chicago
78 50 .609 Cincinnati
TEAMS WITH SCHEDULES THAT GET EASIER -- WINNING PERCENTAGE (2nd half, relative to 1st)
Here’s a mixture of the first two, showing which teams project to have schedules that get easier in the second half of the year. No surprise that Miami and Minnesota are at the top. They’re followed by Jacksonville and Atlanta. Chicago, Cincinnati, San Diego and St. Louis are the opposite; they tend to play their easiest games early in the year.
Pct.
.188 Miami
.133 Minnesota
.102 Jacksonville
.086 Atlanta
.070 Kansas City
.070 San Francisco
.063 New Orleans
.063 Arizona
.055 Tampa Bay
.047 New England
.047 Houston
.047 Denver
.031 Tennessee
.031 Carolina
.031 Seattle
.016 Cleveland
.016 Pittsburgh
.016 NY Jets
.000 Buffalo
-.016 Baltimore
-.016 Washington
-.031 Detroit
-.031 Oakland
-.055 NY Giants
-.055 Philadelphia
-.055 Dallas
-.070 Green Bay
-.094 Indianapolis
-.117 St. Louis
-.125 San Diego
-.141 Cincinnati
-.148 Chicago
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- GAMES 1-8 (points)
In the first eight games of the season, five teams play opponents that on average project to allow over 22.5 per game – San Diego, St. Louis, Arizona, Indianapolis and Carolina. Four teams project to play opponents that are lower than 20.5 (or 10 percent lower). Miami, New England, Baltimore and Minnesota are all in that group. Note that Miami’s schedule, strictly off the numbers, projects to be far tougher than anybody elses during the first eight games at just 18.2 points per game (1.4 per game behind everyone else). The Dolphins could have seven really tough games in that stretch – Jets, Patriots, Steelers, Vikings, Ravens, Bengals and Packers.
Pts
23.6 San Diego
23.0 St. Louis
22.7 Arizona
22.6 Indianapolis
22.6 Carolina
22.4 Seattle
22.4 Dallas
22.3 NY Giants
22.1 Washington
22.1 Chicago
22.1 San Francisco
22.0 Philadelphia
21.9 Oakland
21.9 Green Bay
21.8 Pittsburgh
21.5 Detroit
21.5 Houston
21.4 Tennessee
21.3 Tampa Bay
21.1 Kansas City
21.0 Jacksonville
21.0 NY Jets
20.9 Atlanta
20.8 Cincinnati
20.7 Cleveland
20.7 New Orleans
20.7 Buffalo
20.6 Denver
20.4 Minnesota
19.9 Baltimore
19.6 New England
18.2 Miami
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- GAMES 9-16 (points)
Five teams with easy-looking schedules in the second half of the season: Minnesota, Denver, Washington, San Francisco and Dallas. At the other end of the spectrum, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland and the Giants all project to face really tough defenses (on average) in those final eight games.
Pts
23.2 Minnesota
23.1 Denver
22.9 Washington
22.8 San Francisco
22.7 Dallas
22.6 Kansas City
22.6 Oakland
22.6 Jacksonville
22.4 Miami
22.2 Seattle
22.0 Tennessee
21.5 Green Bay
21.5 New England
21.4 Atlanta
21.4 Tampa Bay
21.3 Carolina
21.2 Houston
21.2 Philadelphia
21.2 Indianapolis
21.1 Buffalo
21.1 NY Jets
21.1 Baltimore
21.0 Arizona
21.0 St. Louis
20.8 San Diego
20.8 New Orleans
20.8 Chicago
20.6 Detroit
20.2 NY Giants
19.6 Cleveland
19.4 Cincinnati
19.2 Pittsburgh
TEAMS WITH SCHEDULES THAT GET EASIER -- POINTS (2nd half, relative to 1st)
The biggest shifts occur with the Dolphins, Vikings, Broncos and Patriots. All tend to face hard defenses at the start of the year, but much softer opposition in those final eight games. The top 3 teams, according to these numbers, will all play schedules that are at least 2.5 points per game easier (over 10 percent). There are four teams that’s schedule project to be at least 2 points per game harder: Chargers, Steelers, Giants and Rams.
Pct.
4.2 Miami
2.8 Minnesota
2.5 Denver
1.9 New England
1.6 Jacksonville
1.5 Kansas City
1.2 Baltimore
.8 Washington
.7 San Francisco
.7 Oakland
.5 Atlanta
.5 Tennessee
.5 Buffalo
.3 Dallas
.1 New Orleans
.1 Tampa Bay
.1 NY Jets
-.2 Seattle
-.2 Houston
-.4 Green Bay
-.9 Philadelphia
-.9 Detroit
-1.1 Cleveland
-1.3 Chicago
-1.3 Carolina
-1.4 Cincinnati
-1.4 Indianapolis
-1.6 Arizona
-2.0 St. Louis
-2.1 NY Giants
-2.6 Pittsburgh
-2.8 San Diego
—Ian Allan
- Comments [3]
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Posted by Travis Billman | Jul. 13 at 11:04 AM
So would a proper use of this information be to pay attention to the success of guys who play an easy schedule at the beginning season (Jay Cutler, Ryan Matthews, S-Jax, Benson) and consider selling high if they get off to a good start? In the same way, perhaps consider buying low on Michael Turner, Sidney Rice, M. Sims-Walker and the like if they get off to a relatively slow start? I like getting this kind of information from you guys, but always want to know how to turn it into fantasy success. . .
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jul. 13 at 11:37 AM
I don't put a high value on SOS info. Teams change a bunch. I tend to use it more as a tiebreaker (if two players are similar in value, I might opt for a guy who projects to start the year strongly -- or target a guy who'll play well late in the year if I'm confident I'll be in the playoffs).
Posted by Travis Billman | Jul. 13 at 11:13 PM
I suppose you should be evaluating players midway through the season anyway, as you'll get a better idea of the strength of their 2nd half by the way the teams have played in the first half. Are you a fan of looking at schedules mid-year to evaluate whether to sell low/buy high? Or do you believe it's all about the talent? I remember thinking Kurt Warner had a cake schedule of poor pass defenses the second half of last year, and it kind of burned me when he was suprisingly inconsistent and average.