Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

Because there's a regular season game that counts in most challenges before we have to submit our rosters in most challenges, and because there's a whole preseason to come before then -- with all of the holdouts and injuries and jockeying for jobs that every preseason brings -- I'm going to wait a while before writing about roster construction. In the meantime, let's take a slow, thoughtful trip around the league.

This column and the next three will preview two NFL divisions each, starting with the NFC North and South (below) because I usually start with the AFC for whatever reason.

Please note that my analysis is intended only to augment, and not to substitute for, the far more thorough analysis provided in this year's Fantasy Football Index magazine. My perspective is different than the one that prevails there; challenges are fundamentally different than the fantasy formats the magazine is intended to help you conquer.

There's no such thing as a purely speculative pick in the challenges; you'll have the new player purchases you need to acquire players who emerge as fantasy stars when others slump or hurt themselves. Your initial rosters here have to aim higher than your draft or auction teams; here you need the highest possible percentage of useful players. My hope in finalizing my rosters is always that I will start every player I've rostered at least once. Sometimes one or more of my taxied players opens the season so cold that I never plug him in before dropping him, but understand that those players represent significant failures on my part. There are always players I could have used and thus should have carried instead.

Read the magazine for more and better information than I'm capable of giving you, then read the following (and the next few columns) to understand how I personally have interpreted the information that appears there. You'll occasionally find that I've written something that clashes with Ian Allan's advice; as I've suggested in the Atlanta section below, you're usually better off adopting Ian's opinions.

Still, this is the most sophisticated challenge-specific analysis I'm capable of providing, ignoring kickers and defenses for now because I just don't want to write about them more than once, and I'll do that when we move into our roster construction phase.

NFC NORTH

Chicago

As near as I can tell, a gunslinger is a quarterback who throws a lot of interceptions. Maybe the meaning of the term was different initially, and in any event it isn't all bad. Brett Favre is typically cited as the archetypal gunslinger; he's the career leader in INTs, yes, but also in TDs and everything else.

But if Favre is a gunslinger, and Jay Cutler is a gunslinger, really, what does the term mean? What do they have in common, aside from the mere fact of playing the same position? Big arms? A willingness to try to squeeze passes into tight spots? Anything else?

If we want to keep using the term, we're going to need to draw a distinction between smart gunslingers and dumb ones. Because Favre may be a few credits shy of his doctorate, but Cutler appears to be a turnip. Last year he gave gunslingers of all kinds a bad name.

Enter Mike Martz, and with him the fear that I will carry Cutler and hitch my fantasy fortunes to his empty wagon in 2010. I see no way to avoid it. Cutler is poised to become a star in the same way that the NBA's Joe Johnson is a star -- play nearly 40 minutes per night, or throw as many passes as Cutler will for Martz, and you're going to pile up some numbers.

So forget for now that Cutler spent several games last year looking like the kid who touches the burner with both hands just to be sure. Focus on Martz instead.

Ian has written about Martz's wacky playcalling tendencies many times in the past, and the magazine provides plenty of numbers to describe the likely Chicago offense. It appears that Martz cannot cobble together a running game without having a Marshall Faulk -- an obvious, multitalented Hall of Famer -- in his backfield, and the Bears know they don't have one. They added Chester Taylor this offseason to spell (or perhaps displace) starter Matt Forte, then picked Harvey Unga in this week's supplemental draft. This is not a team that will run the ball well, or often.

And Cutler may make Kurt Warner look like Richard Feynman, but remember that Warner was no Hall of Famer when Martz first worked with him. It was only a seemingly team-killing injury (to Trent Green) that made a starter of Warner in the first place. Cutler has the most impressive résumé coming into the relationship of any QB Martz has worked with.

OK, but this only goes so far. There's no Isaac Bruce or Torry Holt on the Bears' roster, and the offensive line is a mess. Cutler won't win any MVPs or Super Bowl MVPs in 2010. I'll hold my nose and roster him, and I'll watch the preseason closely to see which of the WRs might be worth a flyer. Promises made to Greg Olsen notwithstanding, Martz has never used his tight ends effectively. I'm hoping Devin Aromashodu or Johnny Knox emerges as the go-to option, as they're both considerably cheaper than Devin Hester.

Key words in that last paragraph?

Hold my nose.

Detroit

Matthew Stafford. Gunslinger. Possible turnip. But, note: Cutler was extremely productive in his second season as a starter (2008), and I suspect the perception that he wasn't particularly disciplined or bright had something to do with that. Defenses had to gear up for Mike Shanahan and his blocking scheme; they knew the quarterback had more arm than brain; they focused on the run in part because they believed it would be easier to stop the pass when push came to shove. And that opened the field for Cutler for much of the game, and he had the big season. Still threw 18 INTs, and defenses still came away with 8 wins, so there was little harm in letting him pile up yards and TDs.

I'm guessing that's what we'll see from Stafford this year. Jahvid Best strikes me as the sort of player who'll be extremely effective when fully healthy and perhaps wholly ineffective when dinged or nicked. His rookie year, then, coming off of a highlight-reel career at Cal, should be the year when he frightens defenses most. They gear up for Best and Stafford makes a season of throwing downfield.

For our purposes I think that means the following:

First, Calvin Johnson is back in play -- particularly given the hit his salaries took after last year's down season. It's crazy not to plan on rostering Megatron in categories games, where his receiving average (17.1 in 2008, 14.7 despite the down season in 2009) could be the most valuable number produced by any player at any position.

Second, Best is out. I just don't believe that a team that's finished in the bottom 10 in rushing for five straight years will produce a stud runner unless that runner is a true all-timer -- and while I believe there was one of those in this year's draft, Best wasn't it. He may look like a stud in Week 1, with the Lions opening at Chicago and playing ball-control until Cutler gives them the game, but I'd figure Best was in for a quick dropoff even if the schedule didn't turn so ugly so promptly. Week 2: vs. PHI. Week 3: at MIN. Week 4: at GB. Those teams finished 9th, 2nd and 1st against the run in 2009.

Third, Stafford is neither in nor out. He's there if we need him, and I'm sure he'll have some big games, but (a) there's another quarterback in his price range who's clearly a better option, and (b) there are several others who aren't much more expensive and may be even better than that.

Let's see how Stafford looks in the preseason.

Green Bay

At 27 years old, and after three years as a feature back, we know exactly what Ryan Grant is. Functional, not flashy. Better in categories games than points games, as he doesn't catch a lot of balls and thus won't kill your receiving average, but not really a play anywhere. Especially not coming off of a season in which he scored 11 times; he's more expensive than he is valuable.

The passing game is where the hay is made in Green Bay, and I want to own as many of its components as I can. Aaron Rodgers can do no wrong for me -- not after he's basically done no wrong in two years as a starter. I'll own him and start him as often as I can afford to, at least until he gives me some reason to reconsider.

I could also forgive Greg Jennings for last season and carry him, but he'll probably be squeezed off of my final rosters. There are two comparably priced WRs I like better in this column alone (Calvin Johnson, above, and Roddy White, below), and this only takes us through a quarter of the league.

The bigger intrigue is in the cheaper receiving options. The magazine may only have had Jermichael Finley as the league's top tight end because of a slight concern about one of Antonio Gates' feet, but given the salary differences between the two, I'm inclined to rate Finley as the bar-none best option at the position heading into the preseason.

The biggest question to be answered next month? If Donald Driver slips a notch or two this year (and I believe he will), which of the reserves might take over as the Packers' No. 2 receiver? I've been waiting on James Jones for years now; either he or Jordy Nelson could be in for a significant breakout with the right luck.

Minnesota

I won't write about what would happen if Brett Favre didn't return. That would of course change things, but for now I'm sure we all consider such speculation to be a waste of time.

Even with Favre back, however, it's reasonable to expect the Vikings' passing game to slip a bit. For one thing, whatever the NFL's retirement age may be, Favre is 40 years old. His statistical excellence last season was shocking. For two other things:

1. Adrian Peterson has much to prove after he took (and deserved) so much flack in 2009. I don't just expect him to cut the fumbles; I expect him to reclaim his spot atop the league's rushing leaders. Remember, A.D. plays the game like no one else. His long touchdown run in Week 1, when he slowed to bring a Cleveland defender into his body and then shoved him out of the way, was one for Canton.
2. I see the receiving corps in a kind of flux between last year's roles and wherever they'll wind up in 2011. Barring a worsening of his migraine troubles, Percy Harvin will have a much bigger role this year. I don't know exactly what that will mean for Sidney Rice's production, but I do believe we'll see the catches shifted around some. (Touchdowns, too. I can't see Visanthe Shiancoe quite reaching double digits in 2010.) The best way to read the situation may simply be to wait for the Kickoff Weekend cheat game, see what goes down, then adjust accordingly. Which means that the best way to write about the situation may be to stop doing so now.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta

The original Triplets hit full stride in their third season together. Emmitt Smith was the last of the three to join the Cowboys; his third year in the NFL, 1992, marked the first time he led the league in touchdowns. It also marked the first time Troy Aikman topped 3,000 passing yards, and the only time Aikman topped 20 touchdown passes. Michael Irvin had been slightly better the year before, but he settled for (a) 1,396 receiving yards at a sizzling 17.9 per reception, and (b) a Super Bowl ring.

I don't know that the Falcons are ready to win it all -- their defense is still under construction -- but I do expect their Triplets to hit stride this year. Long-term, rookie linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is exactly the kind of talent on which championships are founded. Short-term, I'll be stunned if Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White fail to lead the team back to the playoffs in 2010.

Why so confident?

The biggest reason is that even though I was right a year ago when I predicted a sophomore slump for Ryan (and, note: Ian and I were squarely at odds on that, which may be the only time I've been dead right to disagree with him), I was right in the right way. I never doubted Ryan himself, but I figured his first offseason would give opposing defensive coordinators the scouting ammunition they needed to be a crucial step ahead of him in his second season. There are reasons why quarterback is the hardest position in sports to learn. Same reasons why Ryan's rookie performance had been so incredibly impressive.

You may recall that I was especially nervous about Week 1, when the Falcons were opening at home against Miami -- Bill Parcells' people. Ryan turned out to be fine in that game: 229 yards passing, 2 TDs, 0 INTs. But because I'd been nervous, and because the Falcons had an early bye, I hadn't included him on my initial Football Challenge roster -- which was lucky, because he scuffled badly in the middle of the season, throwing too many picks and generally completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes.

And now?

Football, although not to the same extent as baseball, is a game of adjustments. Ryan happens to have filled in for Peter King in writing SI.com's Monday Morning QB column this week; read about the work he's done to adjust his game this offseason here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/matt_ryan/07/11/mmqb.matt.ryan/index.html.

I think Ryan will be outstanding in 2010, and I think that will benefit White more than pure extrapolation would anticipate, because pure extrapolation doesn't know that Tony Gonzalez is 34 years old. Gonzalez has to slow down eventually; when he does, even more of the Falcons' passing game will funnel through White, who's already turned in three straight seasons with 83 or more catches.

Which leaves Turner. Who missed five games last year after hurting himself just when he had gotten hot. I suspect he isn't thrilled about that. I suspect he's angry, even. And he's listed at 5'10" and 244 lbs., but still has the nickname "Burner." I wouldn't want to be standing in his way when he was angry.

And the best part is that the prices are right on all three of these guys. I'll certainly carry all of them in the Football Challenge. The call is closer on Turner in points games, where his lack of receiving production means he'll have to lead the league in rushing yards or touchdowns -- or come close to doing both -- to earn his pay. More on this in a few weeks.

Carolina

I know Jake Delhomme is terrible, and I'm sure his departure will prove to be a plus for the Panthers eventually. But.

The one thing Delhomme still has going for him is that opposing players remember his name. They know him as an NFL quarterback. He was functional as a game manager as recently as 2008. It may only be a modicum, but he still commands a modicum of respect.

Which means what, exactly, for our purposes?

In each of the first 11 games of last season, Delhomme led the Panthers in passing. Meanwhile they rushed for 4.8 yards per carry.

In each of the last 5 games of the season, Matt Moore led the Panthers in passing. And they rushed for 4.6 yards per carry -- but that isn't nearly the whole story. Two of those games came against teams that weren't trying to win. The Giants laid down in an embarrassing 41-9 blowout in Week 16 -- in their last-ever game in Giants Stadium, no less -- and the Saints rested their starters in Week 17. Eliminate only the Giants game and the Moore-led Panthers drop to 4.4 yards per carry. Eliminate both games and they drop to 4.2.

Not only will I not own any part of Carolina's passing game with Moore or rookie Jimmy Clausen at the helm in 2010, but I won't own any part of the team's vaunted running game, either. I see this as an offense in freefall this season. John Fox will finally be fired -- not fairly, mind you -- and then Bill Cowher will look as good or bad as Clausen turns out to be.

New Orleans

Sean Payton's offense is sports' sleekest vehicle at the moment (and will be until the first Miami Heat fast break, roughly halfway through the NFL's regular season). So I'll try to make room for Drew Brees on my challenge rosters, same as you and everyone else -- but doing so will be harder this year than ever before. Brees' salaries have gotten very nearly out of hand. Put it this way: There's no way to justify carrying him unless he will have the very best numbers among all QBs. And the reason I'll try to carry him is that I indeed expect him to have those numbers.

But one reason why Payton's offense functions as well as it does is that Brees is by far the most stable part of it. Everyone else stays fresh-legged by shuffling in and out of the game; among the Saints' skill-positioners, Brees is often the only player who's assured of being on the field for the next two snaps. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush share the backfield, and a third player -- this year probably Lynell Hamilton -- gets most of the short carries. Marques Colston, who by all appearances is an elite talent, shares the receiving duties with so many other guys that he barely topped 1,000 yards in 2009 despite playing in all 16 games.

Colston logged 23.9 percent of the Saints' 4,490 receiving yards. A total of 11 other teams compiled at least 4,000 yards; not only did every one of them have a receiver who grabbed more than 23.9 percent of their yards, but several had two. The 11 teams featured 16 players who topped Colston -- including two tight ends, Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates.

So while I like watching the Saints almost as much as the ESPY voters do, I can't see owning one other than Brees unless the preseason thins the depth chart considerably. Or unless the cheat game makes an unexpected hero of just about any cheapo. If Lance Moore ($700) scores a 70-yard touchdown that Thursday, sure, he can have a roster spot in the Football Challenge. Always nice to know which player to drop first.

Tampa Bay

I catch a break here, as do those of you who wish the column would end already. Not much to write about the Bucs, as the grudging respect Josh Freeman earned as a rookie only highlights the differences between challenges and more traditional fantasy formats. Yes, his jittery quarterbacking works in a lot of scoring systems; Freeman is athletic enough to turn broken plays into ground gains, and he has enough arm (and then some) to zip in the occasional long touchdown. He deserves to be drafted for depth in your office league.

But he's useless in categories games, where QBs really only help by throwing, and I doubt he'll be consistent enough to hold a roster spot in points games either. The Bucs let Antonio Bryant walk away from a paper-thin receiving corps, replacing him with two rookies. If Freeman was jittery before, imagine how he'll play when the pocket starts to collapse in 2010 and he has zero starting-caliber wide receivers. Tight end Kellen Winslow may lead the league in targets, but I suspect he'll also be the target of a league-leading number of incompletions. And if Freeman fails to develop as a passer, frenzied defenses will crush what was already a bottom 10 rushing game.

Good luck to the affable, refreshingly ill-prepared Raheem Morris. He'll need it.

The rest of the NFC next time.

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