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Like last year, the 2010 edition of the Speed Bump Polls starts at the RB position. For starters, we examine Ryan Grant versus Pierre Thomas, two backs on high-octane NFC offenses. New Orleans comes into 2010 after posting the #1 offense in the NFL last year at 403.8 yards per game and Green Bay (#6) at 379.1 per game. To add an added challenge we're including rookie Jahvid Best to the party, who joins the Lions and their 26th-ranked offense from last year at 299.0 yards per game.
At just age 27, Ryan Grant enters the season as the Packers' starting RB for the 3rd straight season. Going back two years, Grant started off awfully slowly in 2008. In the first six games Grant failed to score a single TD in those six games and was just the 53rd best fantasy RB over that timeframe. Grant rebounded however to finish the season as the 24th best RB, and trailed only Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner for the NFL lead in carries from week 4 on. Despite the heavy 333-carry workload that year Grant offered little in the scoring department. He scored a grand total of 4 TDs – tying Aaron Rodgers for the Packers 2008 team lead. In 2009, Grant increased his yardage total by 10% (from 1,319 to 1,450 total yards) but jacked his TDs up from 5 to 11. In the 2008 edition of the Speed Bumps we set Grant against Clinton Portis who took Grant down easily. Last year, Grant went against Derrick Ward who Grant in turn took down easily. Grant finished as the #10 RB last year.
Like Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas (25) has weighed in against Clinton Portis in the Speed Bump Polls. Last year, it was a near split between Portis and Thomas in voting although Pierre destroyed Portis 193.50 to 74.10 (Pierre was the #18 RB last year while Portis was the #58 RB). In 2008, Thomas absolutely exploded down the stretch. Over a seven-game span (weeks 10-16) Thomas was the 2nd-best scoring RB in all of fantasy football. His full season projection over that timeframe is 1,685 yards, 55 receptions & 20 TDs. The undrafted back has certainly trumped teammate Reggie Bush. Over the last three seasons, Pierre averages 5.1 yards per carry; Bush averages 4.1 behind the same offensive line. In the passing game, Thomas averages 8.5 yards per reception, Bush averages 6.9 yards; lastly, fumbles: Bush has coughed up the ball 15 balls over the past three seasons; Thomas just 3 times (just one fumble per season is noteworthy). Thomas is off a career-best 5.4 YPC average but has yet to be a 1,000-yard rusher in the NFL.
And with the 30th pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Jahvid Best. This time last year Kevin Smith was the 17th ranked running back (ironically sandwiched between Ryan Grant and Pierre Thomas). Fast forward a year later, Grant and Thomas are again slotted 16th and 18th although the new Lions starter drops down to the #23 rated running back according to MFL.com data. Likewise, according to the top magazines on the market this one isn't close. Grant and Thomas each trump Best in 7 of 7 of the magazines we've examined. Coming into the 2010 NFL Draft we slotted Best as the #2 RB on the board. Best entered the NFL after rushing for 2,668 yards (7.3 YPC) and 29 TDs during his career at California. His sophomore season landed him exposure at the national level and placed him in the hunt for the Heisman Trophy when he rushed for 1,580 yards and 15 TDs. He had the best speed of any running back in the 2010 draft (his 4.35 40 at the Combine was best among RBs). The biggest concern is durability. Best had a hip injury at the beginning of the 2008 season and wore a cast for a third of the season due to a dislocated elbow. Best had surgery this past offseason on his right foot and elbow (the foot surgery was to relieve irritation of an extra bone on the right side of his foot; the elbow surgery was to tighten a ligament). Also, Best missed the last four games of the 2009 season after he suffered a freak neck and back injury.
The 2010 Speed Bumps have begun - who will have the more productive fantasy season: Jahvid Best, Ryan Grant or Pierre Thomas?
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Posted by Jason Turner | Aug. 01 at 04:20 PM
Give me Ryan Grant. He will be hurt less by Brandon Jackson than Pierre Thomas will by Reggie Bush. Jhavid Best's run will be determined by how healthy Kevin Smith is as the season gets closer. With the passing juggernaut that Green Bay has developed, Ryan Grant isn't exactly the player that opposing D's will be concentrating on. My rankings would be... 1.) Ryan Grant 2.) Pierre Thomas 4.) Jhavid Best