Fantasy News
There were several WRs that significantly broke out in 2009, including Austin Miles (#6), Steve Smith (#8), Sidney Rice (#10) and Robert Meachem (#27) on the NFC side (Austin, Rice and Meachem each made our 2009 "The Sleeper WR Poll"). Likewise, in the AFC, Mike Sims-Walker (#23), Mike Wallace (#36) and Pierre Garcon (#38) each had breakout seasons and has relatively comparable draft prices here in July 2010. All three of these receivers were hardly on the map this time last year. According to 2009 MFL average draft data, Sims-Walker was the #74 WR prospect this time last year, Garcon was #90 and Wallace didn't make the cut (MFL data went 92 WRs deep last year).
Mike Sims-Walker was the proverbial "3rd-year breakout" last year. After collecting just 217 yards and zero scores in his first two NFL seasons (MSW missed his rookie season), Sims-Walker laid down a 63-869-7 TD campaign last year on 111 targets. It was truly a tale of two seasons however. Sims-Walker started the season playing at Pro Bowl levels. In the first eight games of the season he started, Sims-Walker was at a 94-1,388-12 TD pace. However, over the final six games Jacksonville went 1-5 and Sims-Walker's results collapsed as well. His targets dropped only marginally (from 8.5 to 7.0 per game) but he averaged a dismal 29 yards per game and had just one score. Is Sims-Walker the elite prospect we saw in the first half of the season or did teams catch up to his talent level? Most think the answer to that question is the former. Sims-Walker is the highest ranked of the three WRs in this poll based on magazine rankings with Sims-Walker at #20 (just ahead of Hakeem Nicks and Percy Harvin) while Mike Wallace is #27 and Pierre Garcon is #28. Likewise, MSW has the highest ADP ranking (MFL.Com) where he is the #21 WR, Garcon is #26 and Wallace is #27. On the plus-side, Sims-Walker is the clear #1 WR for the Jaguars and should be able to improve on his consistency as a 2nd-year starter. On the down-side, he is a player with a history of knee issues and plays on a rushing-oriented team (Jacksonville rushed on 46.3% of plays last year, 9th-highest in the NFL last year and they have passed for only 30 total TDs over the past two years, 5th-worst in the league).
Mike Wallace joins the NFL in what will likely be one the better receiver classes in NFL Draft history with as many as 12 rookie WRs last year significantly on the fantasy radar, including Percy Harvin (#24 WR last year), Austin Collie (#29), Hakeem Nicks (#32), Jeremy Maclin (#35), Mike Wallace (#36), plus Kenny Britt (#54), Johnny Knox (#57), Michael Crabtree (#60), Louis Murphy (#64), Mohamed Massaquoi (#65), Brian Hartline (#66) and Mike Thomas (#70). Wallace quickly surpassed Limas Sweed and Shaun McDonald last year to be Pittsburgh's #3 WR. Heading into 2010 Wallace slides into the starting position with the team having traded Santonio Holmes. Wallace is both bigger (he's an inch taller and a little heavier) and faster than Holmes. Wallace's 4.33 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine last year was the 2nd-fastest of any player in attendance, while his 40" vertical jump was 4th-best among receivers and his 10'9" broad jump tied for best among wideouts. With that elite speed Wallace led the SEC in yards per catch at 18.8 in 2007 and 20.1 in 2008. His big-play ability immediately transferred to the NFL (Wallace averaged 19.4 YPC last year, the best in the NFL among receivers with at least 13 catches). His average TD distance was a DeSean-Jackson-like 40.8 yards per score (on 6 TDs). Perhaps the one question with Wallace is whether he can be a 70+ reception-type of a receiver. At Ole Miss, Wallace only had reception seasons of 24, 38 and 39 although he had 39 receptions last year in a complementary role. The other negative of course is QB Ben Roethlisberger is slated to miss 4-6 games due to suspension.
The Colts looked to have landed a keeper in the 6th round of the 2008 NFL Draft. Pierre Garcon put up huge numbers at the Division-III college level including 54 TDs over his sophomore thru senior seasons while helping lead Mount Union College to two consecutive Div-III National Championships, and fell just short of a third. After a quiet 23-yard rookie season, Garcon was given an opportunity last season with the injury to 1st-rounder Anthony Gonzalez and certainly made the most of it, particularly down the stretch and during the Colts playoff Super Bowl run where Garcon became the team's #1 receiving option. Excluding two meaningless games for the Colts in weeks 16 and 17, Garcon averaged 8.8 targets from weeks 10 thru the Super Bowl (and 74 yards per game), versus 8.4 targets for Reggie Wayne (69 yards per game) and 7.8 targets for Dallas Clark (53 yards per game). Garcon was particularly busy in the playoffs where he led the team with 21 catches, 251 yards and 2 TDs in three playoff games, including a record-setting 11-catch game in the AFC Championship. Garcon's full-season average over his last nine games projects to an 80-1179-7 TD season. Heading into 2010 Garcon likely has locked down the starting role opposite Reggie Wayne and should be the team's best deep-ball threat. Garcon is both bigger and faster than the other WRs on the team and he easily led the Colts with a 16.3 YPC average last season (versus 11.9 for Austin Collie and 12.3 for Reggie Wayne). In addition to confirming how the ball will be spread around with the return of Anthony Gonzalez, the one area for concern for Garcon is improved efficiency with his targets. Garcon successfully caught 55% of the passes Peyton Manning threw his way versus 66% for both Collie and Wayne (then again Garcon got more lower-percentage deep balls as well). Assuming Garcon gets the same looks in the passing game, if he were to get his target-to-reception conversion ratio to 66% like Wayne and Collie that season projection from week 10 on last year jumps to 96-1414-9 TDs.
Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://dynastyrogues.com/headline/?id=215
- Comments [1]
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Posted by KEVIN WEAKLAND | Jul. 30 at 02:19 PM
I think Nicks might out produce Smith in NY. I like Wallace too. With Rice hurt Harvins value has to go up.