Viva Murillo!
In my first few columns, I've tried to provide some general common sense tips on how to improve your fantasy football season, since making specific drafting decisions are impractical this early in the year. Major contract disputes haven't been settled, most first-round draft picks remain unsigned, pre-season injuries are still on the horizon and training camp battles haven't even been fought, much less won. The league we know in late July looks nothing like the league you'll be studying in September. To be honest, I think too much daft or auction preparation is a waste of time right now. I'd prefer to let Ian Allan send me his thoughts, rankings and weekly updates so I can get a feel for how things are shaping up early, and save the heavy lifting for later next month.
Okay, so maybe you've taken some of my advice to heart about not delaying league business until later, and getting a jump on things early. But it's still July. What now? Well, now we reverse course and try to delay an important part of league business: Your draft or auction.
Before the date and time is set in stone, lobby for a later date. If three dates are presented, say you can only make the latest one. I'm authorizing you to lie if you must, but the later your draft, the better off your league will be. Ideally, you'd draft after all the pretend games (some call them preseason games) have been played, all rosters have been finalized and all skill position starters have been named. If a draft or auction represents a snapshot of how the NFL is perceived on a particular moment in time, make that moment as close to kickoff as possible.
Now, I understand you'll be fighting against some strong forces. First of all, I'm asking you to delay what might be the most fun you'll have all year. A draft or auction is often a time for friends to gather and enjoy the camaraderie of the league in person. If it's not in person, it's still the day you'll finally get your team on paper, and prepare for the upcoming season. But really, those are arguments for delaying that day. If it's that much fun, do it when you have more to talk about and week 1 is so close you can almost taste it. And if it's that important to your team's fortunes, schedule it when you won't get blind sided by injuries, late cuts or depth chart changes. You'll never eliminate change, of course, but do the best you can.
And that's the other objection you'll hear: You'll always face unknown injuries and other elements that can change how you would draft, so why wait? You're not going to wait until week five to draft, are you? If everyone is in the same boat, it's fair. So get it over with, already. But that stance makes no sense to me. If that's the case, why not draft for 2014 right now? Everyone is in the same boat, right? Well, drafting four years ahead for no reason would be silly, and drafting four weeks ahead for no reason is also silly to a lesser degree. You don't have to be a psychic Octopus to see that the closer to the start of the season you draft, the closer you'll be to drafting based on what the NFL will actually look like on week 1. You'll never get it just right, but if you care about the league you should get as close as you can.
So, with that in mind, I suggest you lobby for the following dates, in this order:
1. Sept. 10 or 11. Hey, wait a minute. Isn't there a game being played the previous Thursday? Who in their right mind would draft after the first game, especially since it's Minnesota and New Orleans? Well, the World Championship of Fantasy Football does it. I'm not saying it's perfect, but I think the benefit of drafting right before the first weekend is worth knowing the results of one game. You'll know everything you could possibly know about week 1, including injury reports. If you really hate drafting before the first kickoff, shoot for the previous Tuesday or Wednesday.
2. Sept. 3, 4 or 5. If you draft on this day, you'll have the benefit of all the pretend games being played. You'll even know about some final cuts or semi-important signings and depth chart changes. Plus, it's the weekend before Labor Day so you should be able to enjoy each other's company well into the evening.
3. Anything after Aug. 29. As far as pretend football games go, we all know that the really important week is the third one. That's when the starters play the most, so if you're concerned about injured players coming back or need to check out a certain skill position, that's the week to watch. I don't think you should draft before this game, because it can determine depth charts, alleviate (or exacerbate) injury concerns and give you a clearer picture of how teams are coming together. I'm not a big fan of pretend football, but if you're going to give them weight, this is the big one. Hold your draft or auction after this game.
Right now, pushing for a later draft or auction date is the best thing you can do to help your fantasy fortunes this season. The more information you have, the better you'll do. Your league-mates will be in the same position, which will make for a better league overall. The later the better, I say.
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@hotmail.com.
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Posted by DAVID GARRICK | Jul. 27 at 08:10 AM
This article makes no sense to me. If we all have better info, then no one's "fantasy fortunes" improve relative to any other owner. A better article might have advised owners who follow things closely during the offseason to help their chances by lobbying for an earlier draft, and then advising owners who don't follow things closely to lobby for a later draft.
Posted by Duane Stay | Jul. 27 at 09:49 AM
I got to go with Michael on this one. We just don't know who's knee is going to blow in an exibition game. Later is better for me.
Posted by MICHAEL MURILLO | Jul. 27 at 02:19 PM
David, I see what you're saying but I still think a knowledgeable owner still wants a later draft. In a perfect world with no variables, the people who follow it closely will have a better chance at success. That person would rather draft as close to the beginning of the season as possible and have as few variables occur from the time they draft until the time the season starts, thereby validating their perceptions on draft day. The more incidents that can creep in and upset things, the better an owner with little knowledge will be. They have more chances to luck into a better position. In any case, I think it's better for a league to draft with as much knowledge of how the NFL will actually shake out (to the extent possible). That way it better reflects the actual league we use to keep score. Random luck plays enough of a role already. I'd prefer not to invite more of it in with a huge gap in time between draft day and kickoff.
Posted by Tru Livaudais | Jul. 28 at 07:34 AM
In my experience, if you are determined to have the draft in person (which is always a lot more fun than a conference call or computer-aided draft), you are almost have to have it earlier in the year if you have out of town managers. The end of summer signals busy weekends for the parents in the league and fewer opportunities to travel. Our draft is Aug 14 (!) this year and we will have no idea who the real diamonds in the rough are until a month later, leading to a ridiculous free agent feeding frenzy between pre-and regular season. It's the tax we have to pay when we have a guy from Baltimore, a guy from Alabama, and another guy with a pregnant spouse traveling in to New Orleans for our draft. But the fun and comradarie of the draft outweigh any strategic benefits that would be gained from waiting a few extra weeks. Murillo's arguments are perfectly valid, but in a world where many families have two working parents and where you have to buy plane tickets months in advance, we have accepted it as a necessary evil. No one wants to be "Cell Phone Guy," especially when the other 13 managers are drinking pitchers and mercilessly busting each other's balls on the other end of the line - in person.
Posted by MICHAEL MURILLO | Jul. 28 at 02:57 PM
Hey Tru, I'm a big believer in having everyone present to draft as well. You just can't have the same experience if you're the one missing the fun of everyone being together. It might be the only time all year when you can get together, and those are the experiences you remember years later; even moreso than who won or lost. In your case, Aug. 14 might be "as late as possible." It's not ideal, but if it gets everyone there in person, it's a necessary evil like you said. All things being equal, you want it close to the regular season. Unfortunately, all things aren't equal in that case. The camaraderie is more important to you, and that's perfectly fine.