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Speed Bump: Running Back Value Pile

Posted Jul. 31 at 05:11 AM

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2010 Speed Bump 6 – Running Back Value Pile

Justin Forsett, Montario Hardesty, Laurence Maroney and Cadillac Williams each enter the 2010 season likely as their team's number one running back, or will vie for significant touches to varying degrees in a "1A/1B" type of role perhaps in the case of Forsett (Julius Jones) and Hardesty (Jerome Harrison). If you're willing to wait on a number two running back these won't cost you a ton with the players in this poll currently yielding anywhere from a 9th-12th round price tag (mid-July). In magazine ranking averages this foursome rank between the #39-#47 running back prospects.

After being drafted by the Seahawks in the 7th round of 2008 NFL Draft, Justin Forsett was waived by the team in early September. Indianapolis signed him a few days later but they too released Forsett soon thereafter. Seattle waited one day to get him back to the team for the second time as a practice squad player. After not playing in 2008, Forsett finally got his NFL opportunity last year with two starts and two games with significant carries. All told, Forsett made the most of his opportunities. In the two games he had 15+ carries, Forsett tee'd off for 100+ yard games (17-123-1 TD at Arizona in week 10 and 22-130-2 TDs in week 12 at St. Louis). Over his 114 attempts on the season Forsett averaged 5.4 yards per carry - 4th best in the NFL (for RBs with at 100 attempts), trailing only Felix Jones, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson. Forsett will compete with Julius Jones, but Jones averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt last year. Forsett started off slow last year but then was used more by the team (he had 20 attempts in his first 8 eight games compared to 94 in the second 8 games); despite getting worked into the offense over the course of the season, Forsett was a relative beast in the passing game. He finished 2009 with 57 targets, the 12th-most of any running back in the NFL last season. Forsett was a reserve to Marshawn Lynch while at Cal; but he was a starter in his senior year with 1,546 rushing yards on 305 carries and 15 TDs.

There is no doubt many of you out there will hear the name Laurence Maroney and simply say "no way, not me, not a chance!" We hear where you're coming from. Maroney has left a bad taste in many-a-fantasy GM's-mouth. In particular, Maroney spiked to the 2.04 pick of fantasy drafts on average in 2007 when he became the Patriots' starting back with the release of Correy Dillon. Maroney disappointed but still chipped in 850 yards and 6 TDs. In 2008, Maroney got the benefit of the doubt again as a 4th round fantasy pick on average. He was a true draft killer that year. Maroney hurt his shoulder (eventually going on IR) and ended the season with just 93 yards. Last year, Maroney weighed in as the #49 back on average in ADP rankings and turned in his best overall season with 850 yards and 9 TDs. Despite that, Maroney gets no love this year as the #43 RB on average. We know he's Laurence Maroney but who else does New England have? It's perhaps the strangest RBBC in NFL history - his competition is Kevin Faulk (34), Fred Taylor (34) and Sammy Morris (33) - who add up to an even 100 years of age! We dare say the NFL has never seen such an old set of backs on one team. The Washington Redskins catch flak for their Geritol set of Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis and Willie Parker - but it will be 2015 before they can make the same collective 100-year claim. Maroney may never be a bread-and-butter back (even in college he shared carries with Marion Barber) but he's still just 25 years old and seems to be a lock to finally get 200 carries in a season. Maroney will also take some knocks as the team iced him out down the stretch last year, only gaving him 1-carry in their playoff game against Baltimore. However, in 2007, Maroney was a key cog in getting the team to the Super Bowl with 61 carries, 280 yards and 3 TDs in three playoff games. Despite having TWELVE picks in the draft this year, and Maroney, Taylor, Faulk and Morris at running back, the team didn't add a single back to the roster.

Like Laurence Maroney, Cadillac Williams has had an up, down and back up again flow to his NFL career. After having then-Tampa HC Jon Gruden become utterly smitten with Williams in the Senior Bowl and then put his money where his mouth was by making Williams the 5th pick of the 2005 NFL Draft, Williams responded by taking home the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2005. At his highest in 2006, Williams spiked to the 13th overall pick on average in fantasy drafts. His career looked over after Williams tore the patellar tendon to his right knee in 2007 and then tore the left patellar tendon in 2008. However, Cadillac made his successful return to the NFL last year with 1,040 total yards, finishing 2nd to Tom Brady for the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award.

With the strong play of Jerome Harrison last year (who rushed for 570 yards over the final four weeks) Montario Hardesty may have the most competition of the four backs in this poll at becoming his team's starter week one. However, Harrison gives up a full 20 pounds to Hardesty and Harrison only averaged 2 carries per game over his first three NFL seasons. Conversely, Hardesty is built to be a 20+ carry per week type of a back - if he can stay healthy. Hardesty's career at the University of Tennessee was riddled with injuries before having a breakout senior season last year posting 1,345 yards and 13 TDs on 282 carries. Hardesty tore the ACL in his right knee in 2005, as a sophomore he missed three games with an ankle injury; as a junior he missed time with a stress fracture in his leg. The other major concern is going to be getting overly invested in Cleveland Browns on your fantasy teams. However, Cleveland cracked 2,000 yards rushing last year and quietly had the NFL's 8th-best ground attack. The Browns traded the 71st, 134th and 146th to the Eagles to move up to the 59th pick to select Hardesty.

Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://dynastyrogues.com/headline/?id=221

Test your fantasy knowledge in prior Speed Bump Polls:

Speed Bump 1 - Best vs Grant vs Thomas

Speed Bump 2 - 2009 AFC Breakout WR Battle

Speed Bump 3 – NY Giant vs. Oakland RBs

Speed Bump 4 – The Eli Manning Poll

Speed Bump 5 – Santana Mosstrap

Readers' Comments

Posted by KEVIN WEAKLAND | Aug. 01 at 07:05 AM

I don't think Cleveland is going to run the ball much. They'll be playing from behind a lot. Williams is a mess he's always hurt and has never lived up to his billing. Plus Williams is on one of the worst 5 teams in the league and they wont be running the ball much either. If something happens to bring Leach to Seattle Forsette will be riding the bench. So I think Maroney is the best option out of all these guys.

Posted by Jason Turner | Aug. 01 at 04:05 PM

I play in a PPR league so I'm taking Justin Forsett in this situation. All of these guys are second or third backs on your squad, so you have to go for the gamble and try to land the difference maker. A back catching passes every game is the consistant points scorer you need to get points week in and week out. I'd stay away from any running back in a Pats uniform this year, and Caddillac is just too injury prone to count on. Hardesty will need to score TD's in CLEVELAND to be consistant, unless he catches way more passes than I have him projected for. Forsett may not get all of the run, but he will get a big chunk of it in Seattle this year. I had him last year, and his play down the stretch helped me get a first round bye in the playoffs.

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