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In a Speed Bump first we face a litter of receivers from the same team. On the Dynasty Rogues private forum boards opinions have ranged greatly all "off-season" on which Bears' receiver is the one to have this year. What's likely not a source of great contention is the impact Mike Martz can have on an offense. Martz is entering his 3rd NFL team in the last 4 years as an offensive coordinator. While he didn't have a major impact at San Francisco in 2008 he did work wonders in Detroit. In 2006, his first season with the Lions, Martz suddenly turned 34-year-old Jon Kitna into a 4,000-yard quarterback for a season at age 34. With Chicago, Martz inherits Jay Cutler who has a 4,500 yard season on his resume. Per the Chicago Tribune, in 10 years of calling the plays as an offensive coordinator or head coach, No. 1 WRs under Martz have averaged 89 receptions and 1,256 yards while the team's No. 2 WRs have averaged 69 receptions and 1,037 yards. We'll go four WRs deep here (including giving Earl Bennett a shot) along with TE Greg Olsen (this is also the first poll to ever mix-and-match WRs and TEs as we go Chicago free-for-all style).
Billed as a prime sleeper prospect on many a-drat list this year, Devin Aromashodu weighs in first of the WRs on both average draft position rankings (MFL) and average magazine rankings as well. In quite the meteoric rise, Aromashodu wasn't high on the radar as late as week 13 last year (he had 9 career receptions at that point in four NFL seasons and two receptions through week 13 last year). Fast forward four NFL games later and Aromashodu suddenly finds himself as the #34 ranked fantasy WR (MFL ADP data). Aromashodu finished the season as just the #81 WR in PPR rankings last year. However, he was en fuego to close out the season. Over weeks 14-17 Aromashodu caught 22 balls for 282 yards and 4 TDs - he was the #4 WR in all of fantasy football over that time frame (trailing Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall and Miles Austin). You have to wonder how he slipped thru the cracks for so long - years actually. Miami drafted Aromashodu in the 7th round in 2006 but he didn't make the roster. He then signed on with Indianapolis, Houston and Washington, only to eventually be cut each time or relegated to the practice squad teams. At 6'2", he's the team's tallest of the Bears' wide receivers (both Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox are listed at 6'0" while Devin Hester is 5'11").
Next up and just five spots lower in average draft position is 2nd-year WR Johnny Knox It looks like the Bears got a steal with Knox slipping to 5th round in last year's draft (after a 4.34 40-yard dash at the 2009 NFL Combine - 3rd-best among receivers - and a 10'2 broad jump, which tied for 6th best among WRs). Despite not starting a game last year, Knox collected 5 receiving TDs (Devin Hester had 3 and Earl Bennett had 2). Knox was also 2nd in the NFL last year with a 29.0-yard kickoff return average (and made the NFC Pro Bowl roster in place of Percy Harvin who had to sit with migraine issues).
Despite finishing 2009 as the Bears top fantasy receiver and a career-best 757 receiving yards last season (including missing three games), Devin Hester is the third Bears wide receiver in both average draft position and average position in magazines. Now at age 27, with 20 career starts under his belt, a 2nd season with QB Jay Cutler and a new offensive coordinator in Mike Martz, on paper Hester looks positioned to have a strong season (albeit in competition with the other options in this poll vying for Cutler's attention). Hester was at his busiest last year in weeks 6-11 when he averaged slightly over 10 targets and 70 yards receiving per game. Of the five options listed in this poll, Hester successfully caught 63% of his targets versus 61% for Earl Bennett, and 56% for Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu and Greg Olsen. Despite that, in the nine magazines we examined, Hester was the top Bears receiver listed in just one of them (Beckett) and ranks as low as #76 according to the Athlon magazine.
Despite playing for Jay Cutler in college, increasing his yardage total from zero as a rookie to 717 last season as a 1st-year NFL starter (starting 15 games), Earl Bennett is likely an afterthought in this poll. Regardless of where you look Bennett is likely listed in the mid-to-late 60s in terms of fantasy WR prospects for the 2010 season, 20-25+ spots or so lower than the other receivers listed in this poll. In three seasons at Vanderbilt Bennett caught an SEC-record 236 passes for 2,952 yards.
History shows that tight ends and OC Mike Martz just don't mix well. The stats bear it out. There were a lot of reasons 49ers TE Vernon Davis broke out for an NFL record-tying 13 TDs in a season last year but it wouldn't have happened if Martz were still there (Davis' targets fell 40% from 85 in 2007 to 49 in 2008 when Martz came to town). Conventional wisdom therefore would suggest TE Greg Olsen's stock has to be down coming into 2010. That said, Olsen is the would-be reigning champion of this poll with last year's fantasy stats. Olsen totaled 169 PPR fantasy points last year with Devin Hester in 2nd (147) then Earl Bennett (138), Johnny Knox (125) and Devin Aromashodu with 78 down the stretch. Back to Olsen - if he's on the field (and not blocking will be the key) isn't Jay Cutler still going to look his way? He's easily Cutler's largest target at 6-5. Olsen was exceptional in the red zone last year. No one in the NFL last year had more targets inside the 10-yard than Olsen (17) - not Reggie Wayne (2nd with 14), Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson. Olsen scored 6 of his 8 TDs inside the 10 last year.
Which short and speedy WR are you taking here? Through seven polls, the odds of getting all seven correct (randomly guessing, or the number of mathematical combinations) has reached 1 in 9,216.
Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://dynastyrogues.com/headline/?id=223
Speed Bump 1 - Best vs Grant vs Thomas
Speed Bump 2 - 2009 AFC Breakout WR Battle
Speed Bump 3 – NY Giant vs. Oakland RBs
Speed Bump 4 – The Eli Manning Poll
Speed Bump 5 – Santana Mosstrap
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Posted by MATT SHEDOR | Aug. 02 at 05:34 AM
as a Bears fan, and someone who thought Aromashodu should've been a starter off of his impressive preseason last year, i'll take my chances with him over the other Bears.. good size, good hands, decent speed, ran good routes...has some chemistry with Cutler. compare and contrast to the 'other' Devin, Hester. Hester can blow by d-backs. Cutler can throw the ball a mile. Hester cannot track down long passes, consistently.. this should be a perfect match, but it's not.
Posted by KEVIN WEAKLAND | Aug. 02 at 09:46 AM
I like cutler and the talent he has around him but I think there is a good reason we have never seen a first or even second tier QB in Chicago. Its the wind. Although I will say this Cutler will be better this year.