Fantasy News
While Shonn Greene is generally the highest-ranked fantasy prospect of the 2nd-year running backs, last season saw three rookie RBs make a significant impact from a fantasy perspective: Knowshon Moreno (19th best PPR-based fantasy RB last year), LeSean McCoy (#31) and Chris "Beanie" Wells (#39). We'll pit those three against each other as we round out the first third of the 2010 polls. It's time to hop on the Zamboni and clear off the ice after this one – 10 polls down, 20 remain.
Each of these three running backs ranks near one other regardless where you look - average draft data, magazine rankings or expert sites. Knowshon Moreno gets the nod in actual draft results weighing in as the #13 RB prospect (up from #24 this time last year). Moreno has his share of critics after yielding a less-than-impressive 3.8 yards per carry as a rookie and failing to register a single 100-yard rushing game despite starting 9 games and logging 247 carries. However the Broncos were committed to making Moreno a key part of their offense last year. Despite getting outplayed by Correll Buckhalter (Moreno averaged 3.8 YPC versus 5.4 YPC for Buckhalter last year) Denver nonetheless expanded Moreno's role as the 2009 season wore on and his yards per game increased 37% from 64 yards per game in the first half of the season to 87 yards per game in the second half of the season. Moreno will continue to compete with Buckhalter (who turns 32 in October) for carries although Moreno should be one of the team's centerpieces on offense. On a related note, and one of the more surprising statistics heading into 2010, over the last three seasons Buckhalter has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. Per Fantasy Index, the only other RBs who have carried the ball as much as Buckhalter (86 carries per season) and averaged more yards per carry over that time frame is Chris Johnson and DeAngelo Williams. In magazine rankings Moreno is the #17 back on average ranked as high as #8 by Fantasy Index and as low as #34 by Sports Illustrated. UPDATE 08/01: Moreno suffered a "minor fraying" to his right hamstring and what was initially feared as a much serious injury. By all accounts there is no significant risk here unless he were to re-injure his hamstring.
If Knowshon Moreno is 1A in this poll, Beanie Wells is right on his tail as the 1B prospect. In ADP rankings, Wells is precisely one spot lower as the #14 running back prospect. In magazine rankings however Wells is the top pick to have here. As with the his ADP ranking, Wells is the #14 RB prospect on average in magazines and with remarkable consistency – Wells ranks between the #11 and #18 RB in each and every one of the main magazines on the market we examined - this despite failing to start a single game last season (Tim Hightower started all 16 games for the Cardinals last year). Despite no starts, much like Knowshon Moreno did, Wells saw his role grow significantly down the stretch. Over the first half of the season Wells averaged 44 yards per game and scored 1 TD. Over the final 8 games Wells production increased 76% from 44 yards to 78 yards rushing per game and he scored 6 TDs in those games. Despite not starting a game last year, Wells still led Hightower with a 55/45 split of carries - however that was a 53/47 split in favor of Hightower in the first half of the season which flipped to a 62/38 split in favor of Wells over the second half. Hightower is likely to eat into Wells' production to some extent no matter who starts (and he'll certainly be involved in the passing game; Hightower was 2nd in the NFL last year amongst RBs with receptions with 63). The key ultimately will likely be how much the Cardinals run the ball this year. Conventional wisdom suggested the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt as the team's head coach in 2007 (from Pittsburgh) would generate more of a rushing focus for the offense. However, with Kurt Warner in tow that didn't happen. In fact, over the last three seasons Arizona averaged 23 rushing attempts per game (31st in the NFL) and 86 rushing yards per game (dead last in the NFL over that time frame).
Drafted with 21st pick in the 2nd round of last year's NFL Draft, LeSean McCoy'sunderstudy to Brian Westbrook wasn't a long one. Westbrook (who turned 30 at the start of the 2009 season) started out as the team's opening day starter last year, missed week 3 (ankle) but returned two weeks later to make three more starts. However, a set of concussions essentially ended Westbrook's season opening the door for McCoy. Although McCoy only started four games last year he led the team with 637 yards rushing on 155 attempts. It wasn't a particularly overwhelmingly performance however by McCoy. From week 8 on the Eagles only gave McCoy 9 carries per game on average (despite a sidelined Brian Westbrook) where he averaged 40 yards per game on the ground (McCoy closed out 2009 with just 21 carries in the final four games including the team's playoff loss to Dallas). McCoy averaged a fair 4.1 YPC on the ground but only netted one run of 20+ yards on the season (McCoy has fairly ordinary speed having run a 4.52 in the 40-yard dash the 2009 NFL Combine). Where McCoy gets a sizeable bump is in the passing game. Despite the inconsistent workload last year McCoy had 55 targets (17th best in NFL among RBs) with 40 receptions so it's certainly possible McCoy will be one of the leading running backs on receptions and could collect 60+ balls. On the other plus side, Philadelphia easily projects to being the team with the best offense of the three running backs featured in this poll. Philadelphia was 5th in scoring last year (compared to 11th for Arizona– with Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin, and 20th for Denver). On the downside, Philadelphia is not a strong rushing team. Per Fantasy Index, last year Philadelphia running backs toted the rock 301 times – the lowest amount of any team in the NFL.
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