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Speed Bump 11 – The Donovan McNabb Poll

Posted Aug. 06 at 02:24 AM

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2010 Speed Bump 12 – The Donovan McNabb Poll

The 2010 off-season produced several high-profile trades and free agent acquisitions, including Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins, Santana Holmes to the Jets, Julius Peppers to the Bears and Donovan McNabb to the Redskins. Potential future Hall-of-Fame QBs traded within the division are indeed rare but such was the case for McNabb when Philadelphia shipped him to Washington for a 2nd-round (37th overall) pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and a conditional 3rd or 4th-round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. McNabb (33) will square off here against a trio of a lower-ranked younger QBs on average Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford and Chad Henne.

Last season saw the NFL usher-in a record ten QBs with 4,000 passing yards in a season pushing the total of QBs in NFL history to make that claim at 44. The list includes greats of the game of course like Brett Favre and Peyton Manning who have done the feat multiple times and a host of QBs who have done it once, including Scott Mitchell and Elvis Grbac. However, one person who doesn't make that list is Donovan McNabb. After becoming the Eagles' starting QB midway thru his rookie season in 1999, McNabb has averaged just under 3,200 passing yards per season from 2000-2009, including 3,916 and 3,875 yard seasons but McNabb never hit the 4K mark. That's not to say he hasn't had a relatively illustrious career. Selected with the 2nd pick in the 1999 NFL Draft (after Tim Couch who went 1st overall) McNabb took the Eagles to five NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. With a 2.1% INT ratio (100 career interceptions on 4,746 passing attempts) McNabb is the least-intercepted quarterback per pass attempt in NFL history (minimum 1,000 attempts). Coming into the 2010 season, McNabb is ranked #24 in passing yards. If he can hit his 3,193 average (2000-2009) he'll move up to #16 in the passing annals sliding past such notables as Troy Aikman and Steve Young. New Redskins' HC Mike Shanahan led John Elway to his first and only 4,000-yard passing season when he was 33-years-old so perhaps the opportunity still remains for McNabb who is 33 this season. On paper however McNabb takes a big hit on surrounding talent going from DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin at WR in Philadelphia to Santana Moss and Devin Thomas with Washington. Perhaps even more challenging will be his options at running back with Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. McNabb leads each of these QBs however in both average draft position (McNabb is the #13 QB, with Matthew Stafford, Chad Henne and Alex Smith slotted in the 14-20 range) with similar rankings in magazine averages.

While he wouldn't have taken the prize, as late mid-October last year Alex Smith was at least in the general discussion as one of the worst overall #1 overall picks in NFL Draft history. Selecting a quarterback with the #1 overall pick has been particularly hit or miss starting in 1999 with Tim Couch (who lasted five unmemorable seasons in the NFL). While he had more starts and is still in the NFL, David Carr joins Couch as a flop as a NFL starter (and the two share the same NFL QB rating at 75.1). Then there's Jamarcus Russell - taken just three years ago, Russell posted a career 65.2 QB rating and is already out of the league. However heading into last season, the Niners' Alex Smith actually ranked lower than any of them with a career 63.5 QB rating. Maybe it was the one year stint with OC Mike Martz in 2008 (although Martz never let Smith never take a snap, the one year in the NFL Smith registered no starts), maybe it was just gaining some maturity, or maybe it was surrounding the team with play-makers, or maybe it was just a fluke, but the lights seemed to turn for Smith last year. Coming off the bench in week 7, Smith immediately threw for 3 TDs and would then go on to start the remaining ten games and post an 81.5 QB rating with a positive 18 to 12 TD/INT ratio on the season. Inside the red zone Smith posted an even 100.0 QB rating with 10 TDs and zero INTs on 43 passing attempts. Smith definitely finds himself surrounded by a nice of playmakers in RB Frank Gore, TE Vernon Davis (who Smith helped to set tie the NFL record for TDs in a season by a TE) and WRs Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan.

After being the first pick of the 2009 NFL Draft it didn't take any time for the team to turn the reigns over to Matthew Stafford. Stafford signed a 6-year, $72M contract (his $41.8M in guaranteed money is the most guaranteed to any player in NFL history at the time) and he was anointed to be the team's starting QB heading into week one of his rookie season. As you would expect with a rookie QB, and one playing for a team coming off a first-ever 0-16 season, Stafford had his growing pains. He passed for more INTs (20) than TDs (13) taking his lumps with a 61.0 QB rating, missing weeks 5 and 6 with a knee injury, and eventually having his season end on Injured Reserve after week 13 with a separated shoulder. However, Stafford also displayed the possibility for some serious fantasy potential. In the ten games he started Stafford averaged nearly 38 passing attempts per game – projected over a 16-week season Stafford would have thrown 603 passes last year, more than Matt Schaub, more than Peyton Manning, more than any other QB in the NFL last year. Stafford's stats were also quite significant in terms of NFL history for rookies. Per Fantasy Index, his 227 passing yards per game were the most by a rookie since Peyton Manning in 1998 as was his 1.5 TDs per game. Detroit gets solid marks this off-season for surrounding Stafford with better skill-position talent including adding RB Jahvid Best in the 1st round of the draft, trading for TE Tony Scheffler and signing WR Nate Burleson via free agency.

Entering his 3rd NFL season, Chad Henne comes into Dolphins' camp for the first time in his NFL career as the team's starting QB (he took over for Chad Pennington in week 3 last year). All told Henne also had his growing pains as a first-year starter throwing for more INTs than TDs (14 to 12) with a 75.2 QB rating. However, Henne clearly improved as the season went on and Miami gave him a chance to open up the offense at the end of the season. During weeks 3-12 (his first nine starts) Henne averaged 28 passing attempts and 168 passing yards per game. However, over the next four games (weeks 13-16) Henne averaged 46 attempts per game and over 300 yards passing yards per game – we're excluding week 17 as Henne had to leave the game early with an eye injury. Henne was a top 10 fantasy QB over those four games. Conventional wisdom is that Miami will continue to be a rushing-based team - they had the 7th highest run to pass ratio in the NFL last year at 48.3% of their playing being runs. However, over those four weeks from 13-16 they passed on over 61.9% of their plays. Henne was also impressive in the red zone. Inside the opponents 20 last year Henne had 11 TDs to 1 INT posting a 94.8 QB rating. We're not expecting Miami to necessarily turn into the New Orleans Saints east but newly-signed Brandon Marshall is easily the team's best weapon while their running back talent remains static from last year with oft-injured Ronnie Brown and a now 33-year-old Ricky Williams. Additionally, in HC Tony Sparno's first year with the team in 2008 the Dolphins had a Top 10 passing offense with Chad Pennington under center and Ted Ginn Jr. as the team's leading receiver.

Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://www.dynastyrogues.com/roguebits/detail?id=4030

Test your fantasy knowledge in prior Speed Bump Polls:

Speed Bump 1 - Best vs Grant vs Thomas

Speed Bump 2 - 2009 AFC Breakout WR Battle

Speed Bump 3 – NY Giant vs. Oakland RBs

Speed Bump 4 – The Eli Manning Poll

Speed Bump 5 – Santana Mosstrap

Speed Bump 6 - Running Back Value Pile

Speed Bump 7 - Short and Speedy WRs

Speed Bump 8 - Pick Your Favorite Bears WR/TE

Speed Bump 9 - Steven Jackson vs the Panthers RBs

Speed Bump 10 - Beanie vs Knowshon vs LeSean

Speed Bump 11 - The Steve Smith Poll

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