Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

Finally -- not a month too soon -- this is the last of four columns about how each NFL team's skill-position players should fare in this year's national challenge games. I dedicate this one to the fast-fading memory of JaMarcus Russell. WebMD says DXM (the chemical ingredient that has rappers in Texas and suburban kids everywhere drinking cough syrup) causes sweating, rapid breathing and an elevated heart rate -- which begs the question of how Russell, who never deigned to break a sweat after leaving LSU, managed to get himself arrested.

AFC EAST

Buffalo

New coach Chan Gailey has an impressive history of making lemonade out of lemon quarterbacks, with Tyler Thigpen in 2008 perhaps the best example. But if Gailey coaxes challenge-worthy numbers out of Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2010, he ought to be fast-tracked to Canton.

Fitzpatrick played at Harvard and seems to have convinced his previous coaches that he's smart enough to overcome his other limitations, but I'm not convinced he should start even one game this season. He's terrible. Of course, Trent Edwards has not much more arm and probably less brain. There is no percentage in buying into the Bills' passing game.

On the other hand, and please read this sentence closely, I believe C.J. Spiller is one of the best running backs now playing in the NFL. He's the best one to enter the league since Chris Johnson, and he was better in college than Johnson was, so it may not be fair to limit him with the comparison.

Johnson runs behind a much better offensive line and works with more of a passing game (even with Vince Young at quarterback). Spiller can still be a star. Barry Sanders was a superstar in Detroit but would have been the best running back in history -- perhaps by a generous margin -- had Dallas drafted him instead. Same story here: Spiller is a must-own in Buffalo who would have been a bigger star with any other team in the division. If you doubt him, I can only say that there are four preseason games coming. Watch.

Miami

Ian Allan writes in this year's Fantasy Football Index magazine that the Wildcat may be all but dead in its first NFL home, Miami. I think that might be slightly overstated, but I don't disagree that the Dolphins are transitioning to pass-first. As much as anything else, their rushing personnel makes the transition necessary.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are less exciting as a tandem in 2010 than ever before. Brown, never an ironman, lasted only half of last season. Williams, seemingly never a young man, is now 33. The reason I think the Wildcat (or some modified version thereof) will stick around is that I don't see this team running well without mixing in some gadgets or gimmicks. Not that this matters much for challenge purposes; if I didn't want Brown or Williams a year ago, I surely don't want them now.

At the same time, however, we're probably a year away from having to consider quarterback Chad Henne as a challenge option. He's cheap now, but 2010 may be the worst season ever to be a cheap QB -- there are plenty of guys I like much better who cost slightly less or not terribly much more. I can see Henne as a play in 2011, but I can't see carrying him to start this season no matter what happens between now and Kickoff Weekend.

And since Henne isn't known for his arm strength, I don't see new Dolphin Brandon Marshall's situation as much different this year than last: salaries too high for what he does unless he has his very best season; very best season not likely under the circumstances. In the Football Challenge I have Marshall behind a cluster of comparably-priced receivers I'll own or consider owning (Miles Austin, Calvin Johnson, Roddy White). Same as Henne, come to think of it, who's clearly behind the cluster of Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan and even Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford.

New England

Strange to say, but the Patriots' offense may have reached a point at which none of its players is worth owning. Tom Brady no longer benefits from working with an unparalleled group of receiving weapons. Randy Moss isn't finished -- look at his numbers again and tell me how lousy he was last year -- but he isn't worth paying for, either. Wes Welker's injury came too late in the year to lower his salaries, but he healed too quickly to make a play of Julian Edelman or anyone else who might have replaced him in the slot. And the running game has long been built around depth and division of labor; even with a season-ending injury or two, it seems unlikely that any player who remained healthy would inherit enough work to be worth owning.

The only position at which a should-own player could emerge is tight end, and even there -- in true Bill Belichick fashion -- the Patriots drafted their way to depth. Rob Gronkowski came aboard in the second round; Aaron Hernandez, a pass-catching specialist in Urban Meyer's spread option, came aboard in the fourth.

Own Brady if you think New England's depth is superior to what other QBs will work with, I guess, but otherwise 2010 is not the year to buy Pats.

New York

Two weeks in a row I've complained of not being able to own running backs we relied on in last year's Football Challenge. Ray Rice is too expensive to let him ruin your receiving average; Ahmad Bradshaw and Felix Jones are too expensive unless they graduate to something like full-time work. But if we can't own X or Y or Z, we'll have to own A and B and maybe C instead. Can't do without cost-efficient RBs.

In coming weeks I'll be going through the league again, this time one position at a time, focusing in part on head-to-head comparisons. Do we own Chris Johnson or do we own Adrian Peterson -- like that. I'll try to identify all of A and B and C in my column on running backs, but suffice to say for now that Shonn Greene is the only gift we're getting in this year's Football Challenge. The calculus is different in points games, but where receiving average counts as a category, Greene is a most-weeks must. Because he can't catch. At all.

As I noted a year ago, Greene ran the ball 307 times in his last year in college, while catching only 8 (!) passes. With most of a job in 2010 he's the new cheapo Michael Turner -- not as good as Turner proved to be in 2008, but every bit as essential to your plans and mine. Any player who projects to add 1,200 rushing yards to your team total (provided he stays healthy) without moving your receiving average down a tick is automatic. Any player who projects to do that for $1160 is automatic and then some. Granted, the J-E-T-S open the season with a tough Monday nighter vs. BAL, so I'd prefer to find an alternative to Greene in Week 1, but otherwise he's as certain to contribute to my categories teams as any player could be.

The passing game here is iffier. Mark Sanchez may be a star on Madison Avenue, but on the field he's just another guy. He looks a lot more likely to develop into Troy Aikman than Brett Favre, and while there's hardly any shame in that, only one of the two was ever a fantasy stud. In 2010, Sanchez can be mediocre without killing his team's season. I try not to own quarterbacks like that.

Nor is there a receiver on the roster who seems especially crucial to the team's prospects. Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes -- Sanchez won't throw often enough to get both guys their numbers, unless you mean the numbers they've put up as fantasy disappointments in recent years.

Only Dustin Keller seems like a possible play, but he may get squeezed along with everyone else. Too few passes to begin with, going to too many competent targets. If the numbers Keller posted in the playoffs (181 yards and 3 touchdowns in 3 games) mean a great deal to you, does that mean that the numbers he posted before the playoffs (522 yards and 2 touchdowns in 16 games) mean nothing?

AFC WEST

Denver

Few people in this world strike me as dumber than the sportswriters who both (a) complain that head coaches make writing about the NFL more difficult by being so bland and utterly predictable in their speech and usual behavior; and (b) mock Josh McDaniels for things he has said and done since becoming head coach of the Broncos. Either you want these people to have personalities or you don't. Complaining about both makes you a nitwit. It probably means your parents were stupid people. It probably means your children are stupid people.

Me, I like McDaniels. I think his determination to win in his own way or get himself fired is one of the best things the NFL has going for it. Here's an entire franchise that has made itself an experiment; either McDaniels can develop Tim Tebow into an NFL quarterback, and can win games without any hypersensitive (Jay Cutler) or entitled (Brandon Marshall) stars, or McDaniels will be the one former coach who never gets another interview, let alone a job.

Disclosure: As I've written here previously, I am a graduate of the University of Florida (Levin College of Law, 2005). I owe a handful of solid memories to Tebow. I root for him to a point.

But these days I'm rooting for Tebow much more because I'm rooting for McDaniels than because he was a Gator. And frankly I think he has a long, long way to go to be the player McDaniels must envision.

In 2010, Kyle Orton is still the starter, but Tebow may replace him in some goal-line packages, and Orton will no longer work with Marshall between the twenties. Knowshon Moreno, who disappointed me as a rookie, now has less of a buffer in the passing game and may lose numbers to Tebow himself. Also: Moreno hurt himself this week, and though his hamstring turned out not to be torn, any leg injury can hamper a running back long-term.

All in all, not McDaniels' year. I'm curious to see how this team will look heading into next season, but we may not have to check in again before then.

Kansas City

Matt Cassel is even easier to dismiss from challenge consideration than Chad Henne. He's at the bottom of the bottom of the heap of cheap to mid-priced QBs -- and Brandon Marshall is in Miami, not Kansas City. I can see owning Dexter McCluster if he proves to be DeSean Jackson Lite (more likely than the difference in their clocked speed would suggest), but that's a wait-and-see kind of thing.

The whole question for now is whether Jamaal Charles should make our teams. I lean to no.

This is no rejection of Charles himself, mind you. He was ridiculously good late last season, rushing for more than 1,000 yards after the team's Week 8 bye. (Think about that.)

But ridiculously good may have been a little too good. The $1200 salary that would have made Charles a solid play in the Football Challenge is $1600 instead. The $2400 salary that would have made him a solid play in the points games is $3030 instead. He isn't expensive enough to be excluded from consideration altogether -- his salaries are fair, approximately, and his schedule is favorable. But I'm hopeful of finding enough playable RBs at lower salaries that we can put our money to work at other positions. More on this in the running backs column, soon.

Oakland

A year ago I was the only Jason Campbell apologist left on this here Internet. Now that I've given up, chances are he'll have a solid season in Oakland -- and of course he'll look great replacing JaMarcus Russell.

But having a solid season and looking great after JaCarcass are not the same as being challenge-worthy, and -- again -- this is not a season in which we'll be left wanting for QB bargains. Nor is the rest of the passing game especially alluring. Zach Miller West (as distinguished from Jacksonville's Zach Miller East) has played his way past the salaries I'm comfortable paying him, but even if a truly cheap wide receiver becomes the Raiders' go-to option, Campbell favors his tight ends near the goal line to such an extent that "go-to" might not mean enough in this context.

At running back, Darren McFadden's speed continues to be worthless in the NFL, but I can't see Michael Bush being a play either. Bush is more cheapish than cheap in the Football Challenge (better in the points games), and his lack of top-end speed makes him less than exciting in any format. Besides, word is McFadden may yet be Oakland's lead back, the recent effectiveness of the two players notwithstanding.

It couldn't have been much easier to ignore the Raiders when picking challenge players the last couple of years. It isn't much harder in 2010.

San Diego

The other quarterback I like best, along with Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo (and Matt Schaub in the points games) below the highest tier of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, is Philip Rivers. He may be the third-best pure passer in the league. Two years from now he may be the very best.

Vincent Jackson's holdout is annoying, but I'm sure Jackson has been made by Rivers more than the other way around. Malcom Floyd isn't far behind Jackson in terms of raw potential, and Legedu Naanee ...

I've just always wanted to own Legedu Naanee. Seeing his name makes me happy. Seeing it on one of my rosters would make me extra happy.

For one more season I'll like Antonio Gates best among the highest-priced tight ends, but without a really dirt-cheap running back like Ray Rice in 2009 I doubt I'll be able to afford him. So Rivers may make one or more of my rosters, Floyd and possibly Naanee become attractive if Jackson's holdout lasts, and that's the extent of what I can do with this passing game.

I understand the argument that Ryan Mathews will be the best of the rookie runners, but I disagree. This comes back to C.J. Spiller. I see Spiller as an all-timer, Mathews as an ordinary back. That can work (Matt Forte was brilliant as a rookie in 2008; Mathews is comparable physically and could be comparable numberswise), and I'm certainly open to owning both, but I will not own Mathews ahead of Spiller. When in doubt, own the best players. When in doubt at running back, you seldom go wrong by owning the fastest players. Best. Fastest. Spiller.

I haven't decided how to start the position-by-position columns -- maybe kickers and defenses first? -- but in any event we'll start them next week. We're into actual roster construction now. Time to get to work.

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