Fantasy News

In our second poll this year pitting one team's set of RBs versus another team's set we're going Super Bowl V style in Colts versus Cowboys. The first question here is whether Felix Jones can overtake Marion Barber as the top fantasy RB prospect in Dallas. The team's reported starter has been a news bit going back and forth all off-season. Secondly, can then Felix or MBIII overtake the Colts' top running back? Back to Super Bowl V for a second – the 1971 match-up saw the first time a non-offensive player win the game's MVP Award. Dallas' LB Chuck Howley won the award after intercepting two passes and recovering a fumble. However, the then-Baltimore Colts won on a last second FG and Howley became the first player to win the Super Bowl MVP on the losing team. All told, the award has gone to defensive players 8 times (Howley and Ray Lewis are the only two LBs to have won it); the remaining Super Bowl MVPs went QBs 23 times, 7 times to running backs, 6 times to WRs and one time to a kick/punt returner in Desmond Howard. Now onto Speed Bump 13!

At his peak draft ranking in 2008 after the Cowboys let Julius Jones walk via free agency Marion Barber slid into the 1st round of fantasy drafts as the 6th overall pick on average (he hadn't started a single game the season prior but totaled 12 TDs). He underperformed that season finishing as the #13 overall running back and after five NFL seasons Barber has yet to add a 1,000-yard rushing season to his resume. Barber has been close though each of the last three years and has been consistent, averaging 931 yards rushing and 1,237 total yards with receiving yardage. Most folks however have tired on the promise and likely in watching both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice outperform Barber (Jones' averaged 5.9 YPC last year, Choice averaged 5.5 while Barber averaged 4.4). Barber is at his lowest draft price in years ranking as a mid-8th round pick on average this season. All off-season, reports have gone back and forth as to whether Barber would be the team's starter or if they would turn that title over to Jones, letting Barber go back to a closer role as he had in 2006 and 2007, averaging a career best 4.8 yards per carry and totaling 28 TDs over those two seasons. It remains to be seen how Dallas will approach the 2010 season between the two although reports have been glowing on Barber's off-season conditioning – in fact, Barber showed up to camp actually lighter than Jones, as Barber is officially listed at 218 lbs (but reportedly down to 214 lbs), while Jones continues to bulk up and is officially listed at 220 lbs. At the end of the day it might not matter much. Over the last three seasons Barber has averaged 218 carries and both he and Jones will almost certainly split the workload. Dallas paid Barber his $4M roster bonus in March and will be paying him $3.9M in salary this season versus $780K for Jones.

After a breakout 178-yard performance in the playoff victory against Philadelphia last year all indications were that Felix Jones would move into the starting lineup for the Cowboys in 2010. Jones' bulked up for the role (he came into the NFL in the 200 lb range but as mentioned is now listed at 220 lbs) while Barber again fizzled down the stretch last year (he had just 18 yards rushing on 11 rushing attempts in the teams tow playoff games). As we posted in a January Rogue Bit, Cowboys owner-general manager Jerry Jones admitted Barber's string of injuries the last two years could cause a change in how the offense divides carries among the running backs. "We have had an injury issue there at the end of each of the last two seasons," Jones said, "that may have something to do with the amount of time we can give the other backs." In early spring the Cowboys officially listed Jones atop the depth chart for some period of time. However by May Jerry Jones was commenting how "He looks quicker," speaking of Barber, "He's just in great shape. He looks as good out here just in these initial practices as I've seen him look in his career" and reports continue to be mixed on who will start. Again, it might not matter. Both are going to play and certainly there are points to be had on a Cowboys team loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. It's also possible that Felix is just not built to be an every-down starter in the NFL. He didn't carry the load in college and he's been be-set by injuries on limited carries in the NFL. As a rookie Jones missed 5 weeks with a hamstring injury and then the remainder of the season with a toe injury. Last year he missed two games with a knee strain. However, his workload increased substantially down the stretch averaging 14 carries per game over the team's final five games including the playoffs and he averaged over 100 yards per contest. Among RBs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season, Jones tied with Jamaal Charles for the NFL lead at 5.9 yards per attempt and he averages 6.5 yards per carry in his 2-year NFL career. While Jones has been absolutely explosive in his 146 career NFL carries, Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones has to be lamenting passing on Chris Johnson taken two spots later in the 2008 NFL Draft.

Despite the addition of Donald Brown in the 1st-round of last year's NFL Draft, Joseph Addai finished fantasy football as the 6th best running back last year. Most aren't buying it however. Addai ranks as the 20th back in magazine rankings on average (with his highest slotting at #13 in the Sporting News), the 20th best back per the Fantasy Index Experts Rankings, and drops to #23 RB in actual draft averages. Many are likely wary of both the role 2nd-year backup Donald Brown could have, the train-wreck season Addai had in 2008 (when he was the 6th overall pick on average but posted just 750 yards and 7 TDs in 12 games) and the fact that Addai's performance and skill set is nothing overly impressive. Despite defenses keying in to have to slow down the Peyton Manning express, Addai averages just 3.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons. If that's all he can muster with the Colts, imagine if he played for Detroit, Cleveland or St. Louis. Addai hasn't had a 40-yard run now in three seasons and had just three 20+ yard plays last year on 270 attempts. With Addai at the helm the Colts are dead last in the NFL in rushing production over the last two seasons – including a Detroit Lions team that has gone 2-30. Despite his warts however Addai still plays for the Colts who have finished in the top 10 in scoring for seven straight seasons. Addai also helps his cause in the passing game. He had 51 receptions and per Fantasy Index, Addai caught 51 of the 63 passes thrown his way last year (81%), the highest rate of any player in the NFL.

Based on magazine rankings and average draft data we're just being cute even adding Donald Brown to the party here. He's no more than a nice flier in your average magazine as the 41st best RB to have on average, ranking no higher than the #36 RB and in the 50s in a few magazines. However, it's not really that far-fetched to imagine after fast-forwarding 16 NFL games that Brown pulls the upset here. The Colts' brass has a long-history of success with their 1st round picks. On the offensive side of the ball alone they have a laundry list of skill-position players that reads Peyton Manning, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark; the GM grade just doesn't get much better than that. There's one glaring hiccup in that list however - Joseph Addai. As mentioned above, the bottom line is Addai is simply not that special. In the last 36 games Joseph Addai has reached 100 yards rushing a grand total of one time. When drafted, the Colts likened Brown to Thurman Thomas. They didn't spend a 1st round pick on a RB because Addai was nearing the end of the road (he was just 26 years old and had 640 career carries). They also aren't necessarily a RBBC-team per se either. Prior to Addai, Edgerrin James had five straight 300+ carry seasons from 2003-2007, plus 369 as a rookie and 387 in his second season. It's not a change in philosophy. It's Joseph Addai. He didn't command a full workload in college either. Brown could be that workhorse. He led the NCAA in rushing yards in 2008 and was just the 14th player in Div I NCAA history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. Brown's skill-set was in full-form at the 2008 NFL Combine where he posted a 4.51 40-yard dash (5th among RBs), a 41.5-inch vertical jump (the best among RBs) and a 10'5" broad jump (tied for 2nd-best among RBs). We're foreshadowing our 2010 Lifevest Team here with some of this analysis but winning fantasy football is about taking calculated risks. Lady luck loves the bold. Who's in!?

Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://dynastyrogues.com/headline/?id=229

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