Andy Richardson
Differing opinions on one player can change an entire draft. That's where I'm at now in an Experts Draft I'm participating in. Picking 12th, I grabbed Drew Brees (6-point TD passes) and Brandon Marshall (PPR scoring) with my top two picks. It was only with my next picks that I drifted off the board, and it's Steve Smith's fault.
The Giants' Steve Smith was the last of our top pass catchers when the draft came back to me -- well, aside from Wes Welker and Jermichael Finley, both of whom I think might be there when my next two picks come up. But I don't like Smith as much as Ian; I think Hakeem Nicks (who was already off the board) will be better, and the Giants have other guys who will be factors. So although I'd have liked to take a wideout at either 3.12 or 4.01, I grabbed a pair of running backs: Cedric Benson and Beanie Wells.
Neither of those guys will catch many passes, but that's OK. Their rushing and touchdown production still makes them more valuable starters, I think, than a tailback who will catch a ton of passes, but not rush for 1,000 yards or score 10 TDs (as both of these guys could do).
When the draft comes back to me, I think I should be able to grab a wideout or two -- maybe one of the second-year guys like Jeremy Maclin or Percy Harvin, maybe Welker. Finley, if he's there, will also be a possibility. I could also snag one of the two pass-catching rookie running backs, if I want more options there.
The league is sponsored by Junkyard Jake. You can see the entire draft as it happens at this link.
Here's how the draft has gone so far:
1.01 Chris Johnson (FantasyFootballNerd.com)
1.02 Adrian Peterson (WalterFootball.Com)
1.03 Maurice Jones-Drew (JunkyardJake.Com)
1.04 Ray Rice (FantasySportsCentral.Com)
1.05 Andre Johnson (FFToolbox.com)
1.06 Frank Gore (FFJungle.Com)
1.07 Michael Turner (FantasyFootballWhiz.Com)
1.08 Steven Jackson (FootballJabber.Com)
1.09 Jamaal Charles (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
1.10 Larry Fitzgerald (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
1.11 Randy Moss (FantasyStrategies.Com)
1.12 Drew Brees (FantasyIndex.Com)
2.01 Brandon Marshall (FantasyIndex.Com)
2.02 Reggie Wayne (FantasyStrategies.Com)
2.03 Aaron Rodgers (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
2.04 DeAngelo Williams (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
2.05 Peyton Manning (FootballJabber.Com)
2.06 Miles Austin (FantasyFootballWhiz.Com)
2.07 Roddy White (FFJungle.Com)
2.08 Calvin Johnson (FFToolbox.com)
2.09 Rashard Mendenhall (FantasySportsCentral.Com)
2.10 Ryan Mathews (JunkyardJake.Com)
2.11 Shonn Greene (WalterFootball.Com)
2.12 Ryan Grant (FantasyFootballNerd.Com)
3.01 Tony Romo (FantasyFootballNerd.com)
3.02 Steve Smith, Car. (WalterFootball.Com)
3.03 Anquan Boldin (JunkyardJake.Com)
3.04 Greg Jennings (FantasySportsCentral.Com)
3.05 Tom Brady (FFToolbox.com)
3.06 Sidney Rice (FFJungle.Com)
3.07 DeSean Jackson (FantasyFootballWhiz.Com)
3.08 Marques Colston (FootballJabber.Com)
3.09 Hakeem Nicks (Fantasy Sharks Radio)
3.10 LeSean McCoy (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
3.11 Pierre Thomas (FantasyStrategies.Com)
3.12 Cedric Benson (FantasyIndex.Com)
4.01 Beanie Wells (FantasyIndex.Com)
4.02 Steve Smith (FantasyStrategies.Com)
4.03 Jonathan Stewart (FantasyFootballXtreme.Com)
- Comments [9]
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Posted by JOHN ORDUNO | Aug. 09 at 04:42 AM
why would yu pick Qb so quick even though it was bress you could have picked up Marshall and Wayne and had Wells and Benson and you still can pick up a good Quarback in the fifth or the start of the six you have a great chance to get a top TE
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 09 at 05:01 AM
Straight off the numbers, all the top QBs should have gone earlier than they did. The 6-point TD passes are pretty significant. Regardless, if I hadn't taken Brees, then by the time my next pick came up, Brees, Brady, Manning, Romo and Rodgers would all have been off the board. I actually think Schaub would have been an OK option, but the difference between Brees and Schaub, to me, is greater than it would have been between Wayne (I would have maybe taken Austin or White) and the WR I could have taken at pick 36.
Posted by David Kennedy | Aug. 09 at 08:21 AM
Where do these experts come from? They draft in a ppr like that. Please let them draft in my leagues. No way R. white, B. marshall, Calvin j., and Jennings last past middle second round. Most should go late first round. Also much too high for Charles with TJ on bench waiting to ball hawk TD's. These experts graduated from comm. college of FANTASY FOOTBALL. SHOW ME YOUR CREDENTIALS I'M NOT IMPRESSED. Jennings in third is obsurd.
Posted by BILL REHOR | Aug. 09 at 10:03 AM
Don't knock community colleges. They teach people how to spell.
Posted by David Zendano | Aug. 09 at 10:15 AM
How about Charles in the first rd? Even in a PPR that is a reach!
Posted by Brian Barrett | Aug. 09 at 10:48 AM
I think people have a tendancy to get nervous if they haven't picked at least one RB in the first two rounds. Then you get to the 3rd round and the best available is a WR? Takes some balls to go first 3 rounds without a RB. A few yrs back I went QB, WR, WR, TE in a non-ppr league. Ended up drafting RB the next 5 rounds. I won the league that yr and my first rounder was Brady who was sidelined for the season in game 1. One thing to consider is that if you zig while the others are zagging you can find some decent value. Not many RB's were being selected when I peeled off 5 in a row so I ended up with some great value at RB and top talent with my early round WR and TE picks. I think you should have stuck with your board.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 09 at 11:48 AM
Brian - Like I said, Ian likes the Giants' Smith more than I do. I don't like Smith much more than the WRs I'll probably end up taking with my next two picks. Regrettably, Finley went last pick, so I won't get the top TE I was hoping for.
Posted by Lee Johnson | Aug. 10 at 10:42 AM
I can back Andy up on the QB thing. I (Football Jabber) won the regular season points title the last two years. Two years ago I lost my first rounder (Tom Brady) and still came 7 points from winning the whole thing. Reason, I took Aaron Rodgers later. Last year I took Brees with my second pick and led the league in scoring at 6 pts a TD. With that, if I knew I would still be able to get Matt Schaub in the 4th round I would have waited...but I didn't know and it was safer to make a pick like Manning in the second.
Posted by Lee Johnson | Aug. 10 at 10:50 AM
David Kennedy...I guess my credentials are in experience in this league. I could go into explaining how you need to score more points to win and value based drafting so you know where the dropoffs are but I would have to see that you have been accepted into the FF Community College this time around. I almost went Fitz in the first round but didn't want to be stuck at RB later. I was happy to get Colston and Ochocinco as my top two WRs and more than confident I can WRBC the third starting spot. I have done it the last two years. Jason Witten was not my first, second, or third choice for TE but I'm happy to put him with the rest of my starters to this point. (To David Zendano) I thought that Charles was a big time reach there myself but I was happy that was one guy I wasn't going to pick before my 2nd rounder so I looked at it as a freebee