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Let us start by prefacing we can't and aren't predicting off-the-chart success for this set like last year's Sleeper WR Poll. Last year we saved this the Sleeper WR Poll in dramatic fashion to the next to last poll, our 29th out of 30th Speed Bumps for the year as were called out a suite of receivers. We nailed each one of them. The worst of the lot was Earl Bennett. He went from zero catches as a rookie to a 54-717-2 TD season as the #46 WR. Then there was Robert Meachem. He was the #68 WR last year in ADP rankings but finished as the #27 WR with over 700 yards and 9 TDs (up from 3 TDs the year prior). Next, Sidney Rice - this time last year Rice was the #64 ranked WR in ADP rankings and the #61 WR in magazine averages (crazy) and finished as the 10th best fantasy WR. Lastly, Miles Austin, or as we like to say – Go Miles! Another gem flying under radar by most, Austin was the #59 WR in ADP averages and the #54 WR prospect on average in last year's magazines. Austin as we know exploded for 1,300+ yards and 11 TDs finishing as the 6th best WR in all of fantasy football last year. So again, don't think of this set anywhere near that class. Each year is a different animal. Last year's level of success is not there to be had. However, each of these four WRs has the opportunity to break out and could or should have career seasons. Saddle up Rogues – who you taking here? The probability of getting all 16 polls right has reached one in 3.2 billion (the number of possible voting combinations).
Ranked as the #65 in average draft data and the #68 WR in magazines on average, Early Doucet comes into 2010 with 300 total yards and 1 TD in two NFL seasons. As we said last year in our dynasty rankings, don't let Doucet's 14-catch season in 2008 detract from his longer-term prospects. He had another quiet season in 2009 (17 catches) but really turned it on in the playoffs, collecting 14 balls for 145 yards and 2 TDs in the Cardinals two post-season games. With Anquan Boldin traded away, Doucet makes for a 3rd-year WR breakout candidate in 2010, albeit with Matt Leinart under center. Doucet is in the final year of his rookie contract but would be a Restricted Free Agent heading into 2011.
Ranked one spot ahead of Early Doucet as the #64 WR in average draft data and just the 80th best WR prospect by your average magazine this season, James Jones is flying under the radar as his average 33-catch, 460-yard, 3-TD season would suggest after three NFL seasons. There are a couple points of uncertainty to consider here. The first is whether Donald Driver (35) can continue to perform at his age. Driver had arthroscopic surgery on both knees in January. The second is the role Jones and Jordy Nelson would play if Driver were to get injured or if one of the younger receivers cut into his reps (plus who will be on the field in 3-WR sets). One thing we aren't concerned with is Jones' ability. He averages a solid 14.0 yards per catch in his NFL career and he is built like Anquan Boldin or Sterling Sharpe (Jones is listed at 6'1", 218 lbs). The other thing we are certain of is getting extra pieces of the Green Bay passing attack. Aaron Rodgers is the first QB in the history of the NFL to have 4,000 yard passing seasons as a first and second year starting NFL QB. Jones quietly scored 5 TDs last year. Jones is in the final year of his rookie contract and playing for coin as he is slated to be an Unrestricted Free Agent heading into 2011.
Ranked one spot ahead of James Jones and two spots ahead of Early Doucet as the #63 WR in average draft data and just the 69th best WR prospect by your average magazine this season, Jacoby Jones is also flying under the radar as his average 15-catch, 220-yard, 2-TD season would suggest after three NFL seasons. Jones' talent and speed has primarily been used on punt returns prior to 2009 but he displayed his big-play potential last year with a 16.2 YPC average and quietly collected 6 TDs. The team re-signed WR Kevin Walter but HC Gary Kubiak has praised Jones all off-season for improved maturity and preparation and has stated he'll give Jones a chance to compete with Walter for the starting job. Like James Jones, getting extra pieces of an elite passing attack is a good thing (Houston led the NFL in passing yardage last year). Also like James Jones, Jacoby Jones is in the final year of his rookie contract and playing for coin as he is slated to be an Unrestricted Free Agent heading into 2011.
The highest ranked WR on this list in ADP (#54 WR) and in magazine averages (#55 WR) is Washington's Devin Thomas. He enters his 3rd year in the NFL with all the inputs there for a breakout season. Through two NFL seasons his receptions are trending up from 15 to 25, his yards are up 120 to 325, his YPC average up from 8.0 as a rookie to 13.0 last year, TDs up from 0 to 3. He certainly looks the part. Thomas is a physical WR with great run-after-the catch abilities and massive upper body muscle tone with the strength to power through arm tackles. He also is very quick for a man his size. He also gets a new quarterback and leader in Donovan McNabb and a legendary coach in Mike Shanahan. However, Thomas has reportedly had poor work habits since entering the NFL. Recent Washington Post blogs on training camp have talked about how Joey Galloway and Roydell Williams have been getting first-team snaps and even so much as to say Thomas needs to work to make the team. Hmm, ok. That is smoke and mirrors to us and a coach motivating young players. Williams is a scrub receiver who hasn't had a catch in an NFL game in two seasons and Galloway turns 39 years-old around Thanksgiving and has 20 receptions over the last three years. Those guys aren't starting. Digging deeper in camp reports - "They will get their chances," Shanahan said of the third-year players (speaking on Thomas and Malcolm Kelly). "This is where we start. It's a starting point. It's surely not where we're gonna finish. It could be. There's gonna be competition."
Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://dynastyrogues.com/headline/?id=232
Speed Bump 1 - Best vs Grant vs Thomas
Speed Bump 2 - 2009 AFC Breakout WR Battle
Speed Bump 3 – NY Giant vs. Oakland RBs
Speed Bump 4 – The Eli Manning Poll
Speed Bump 5 – Santana Mosstrap
Speed Bump 6 - Running Back Value Pile
Speed Bump 7 - Short and Speedy WRs
Speed Bump 8 - Pick Your Favorite Bears WR/TE
Speed Bump 9 - Steven Jackson vs the Panthers RBs
Speed Bump 10 - Beanie vs Knowshon vs LeSean
Speed Bump 11 - The Steve Smith Poll
Speed Bump 12 - The Donavon McNabb Poll
Speed Bump 13 - Dallas vs Indy RBs
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