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With poll 17 we'll take a few down from the upper shelves with three young backs in the Chiefs' Jamaal Charles, Jets' Shonn Greene, and San Diego rookie Ryan Matthews. These three line up in succession as lower-end #1 RBs or high-end #2 RBs as the 10th-12th RBs selected in drafts this year on average (in the order listed above) – in magazine rankings, Charles drops to 3rd on this list with Greene as the lead dog. Either way, this is a draft-day question that many will face this year and you likely will only get only one of these three. Ironically, these three are also linked – Ryan Matthews gets the starters' role in San Diego with the team allowing LaDainian Tomlison to move on to the Jets to backup Shonn Greene, while 2009 Jets' starter Thomas Jones goes to the Chiefs to backup Jamaal Charles. On to our 2010 drafting Speed Bump boot camp we continue.
If he went undrafted last year or some owner gave up on him too early, Jamaal Charles was likely a waiver wire pickup last year in your league that may well have put some team over the top. In 2009, the Chiefs were still holding out hope on Larry Johnson who started the first seven weeks of the season while Charles saw little work. Through week nine Charles had just 150 yards rushing and hadn't scored a TD. Kansas City then suddenly flat-out released Johnson from the team, unleashing their secret weapon Jamaal Charles on the NFL - Charles went on to become the first player in NFL history to rush for 1,120 yards on less than 200 carries. As we highlighted in our inaugural rookie rankings in 2008 (the year Dynasty Rogues was launched) Charles has the type of speed you rarely find. A back with sub-4.4 speed in the 40, Charles was also a track star at Texas (including have won the Big 12 Conference Title in the 100-meter dash). Some questioned whether Charles could be an every-down back at the next level despite rushing for 1,619 yards and 18 TDs on 258 carries his junior year at Texas (he came out after his junior season). For half a season anyway, Charles answered that question with a resounding yes. From Weeks 10-17, only Chris Johnson had more yards than Jamaal Charles. If Charles' second-half stats were projected over 16 games, he would have had 322 carries, 1,936 yards rushing, 46 receptions for 316 yards and 16 TDs. Including in this were five 40+ runs – the only back to have more last year was Chris Johnson, who had just two more than Charles – on 168 more carries. Charles is part of a classic running back 2008 draft class that included Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, Felix Jones, Darren McFadden, Justin Forsett, plus Tim Hightower, Tashard Choice, Kevin Smith and Steve Slaton.
After a fairly quiet rookie season during the regular season (540 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 108 carries), Shonn Greene exploded in the Jets three-game playoff run with 300+ yards and 2 TDs, including back-to-back 100-yard games with over 20 carries in their victories at Cincinnati and at San Diego (Greene got knocked out of their next game at Indianapolis). The Jets traded up to land Greene with the 1st pick of the 3rd round in 2009 and it looks like they got a steal. A powerful runner with great size and strength, Greene came out of nowhere in 2008 to win the Doak Walker Award as the nation's top running back (as well as being named the Big Ten Conference's Offensive Player of the Year) running for 1,850 yards and 20 TDs, including rushing for 100 yards or more in every single game that season. Greene comes into his sophomore season positioned to be a workhorse back on a team that projects to be one of the best in the NFL, with all the ingredients that would suggest a massive workload – an elite defense (the Jets project almost unanimously to be the top-rated unit for 2010), stout offensive line (including 2009 Pro Bowlers' LT D'Brickshaw Ferguson and C Nick Mangold) and a run-first approach. Greene likely will not get a ton of passes (he didn't get a single catch last year) but the Jets led the NFL with 607 rushing attempts last year – 37% more than the average NFL team (who had 444 last year). The Jets also scored 64% of their offensive TDs last year via the ground. Greene came to the NFL with only 300 college carries on the odometer.
The first running back selected in the 2010 NFL Draft, San Diego gave up their 2nd and 4th round picks plus LB Tim Dobbins to move up 16 spots in the 1st round to select Ryan Matthews with the 1.12 pick. Matthews has mighty big shoes to fill. LaDainian Tomlinson moves on after nine seasons and 12,490 rushing yards (LT is #9 on the NFL's all-time rushing list) and 153 TDs (only Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith have more), including an NFL-record 31 TDs in 2006. Mathews burst onto the national scene last year at Fresno State where he led the country in rushing with 1,808 yards and 19 TDs on 276 carries (6.6 YPC average). It's not often that your typical magazine gets on board so strongly with a rookie but Matthews on average ranks #14 in magazines so he isn't going to last long in fantasy drafts. There also will be no rookie holdout to worry about here. Matthews is locked and loaded with Matthews having agreed to a 5-year deal worth up $25.7M with $15.1M guaranteed. Chargers GM A.J. Smith recently went on record that he didn't attempt to trade for an established running back in the offseason because he was targeting Mathews in the all draft all along. "There were some intriguing things out there," Smith said. "But I had my guy." Smith also said the trade they made prior to the draft sending Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle was specifically designed to get additional ammunition to trade up for Mathews in the draft. Store this juicy nugget away – per Fantasy Index, the Chargers gave Tomlinson 28 carries inside the 5-yard line year, 7 more than any running back in the NFL last year (except Adrian Peterson). Matthews however didn't get used much in the passing game in college with just 11 receptions last year so his skill set there remain somewhat cloudy and the Chargers have Darren Sproles who had 45 receptions last year (11th most of any RB) and they have $7.3M invested in Sproles for the 2010 season so he's likely has to do something to earn his keep as well.
Vote in the official Dynasty Rogues Speed Bump Challenge: http://www.dynastyrogues.com/headline/?id=233
Speed Bump 1 - Best vs Grant vs Thomas
Speed Bump 2 - 2009 AFC Breakout WR Battle
Speed Bump 3 – NY Giant vs. Oakland RBs
Speed Bump 4 – The Eli Manning Poll
Speed Bump 5 – Santana Mosstrap
Speed Bump 6 - Running Back Value Pile
Speed Bump 7 - Short and Speedy WRs
Speed Bump 8 - Pick Your Favorite Bears WR/TE
Speed Bump 9 - Steven Jackson vs the Panthers RBs
Speed Bump 10 - Beanie vs Knowshon vs LeSean
Speed Bump 11 - The Steve Smith Poll
Speed Bump 12 - The Donavon McNabb Poll
Speed Bump 13 - Dallas vs Indy RBs
Speed Bump 14 - Who is the #1 Tight End?"
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