Viva Murillo!
I spent the first few weeks talking about things that, while important, don't really affect your draft or auction analysis. But it's time to talk about players, isn't it? Dez Bryant and Knowshon Moreno are hurt, Darrelle Revis is holding out and a few rookies look to have already secured spots as opening-day starters. So what about actual players that can help win fantasy championships?
Fine; I hear you. Let's talk about kickers.
Wait, where are you going? Don't hit that back button yet. Kickers are players, aren't they? You have to start them, don't you? Well, then, they do matter. Now, I know that kickers are about as popular as MySpace, except MySpace used to be relevant. But kickers have always been a joke and fantasy owners regard them as a draft-day punchline, relegating them until the end of the evening when everyone dutifully picks them in order as a ceremonial end to your draft. In an auction they're the glassware at the dollar store: Plentiful and available for a buck. What's the point of bothering with kickers anyway?
Well, here's the point: You're going to have a couple of nail-biters this year. I mean games where a couple of points (or fractions of a single point) will mean the difference between winning and losing. And in most leagues, some team will make the playoffs by a single game, or maybe a tie-breaker. When games are that close, and playoff spots are determined by those games, why not give yourself a better chance to win? Even if it's just a small edge ... why not have it on your side? I understand that luck plays a role in how kickers perform from week to week, but I think it makes sense to stack the proverbial deck in your favor as much as possible.
I'm getting off-track here. I'm not trying to make you care about kickers. I know that's a battle that cannot be won. You hate them and will continue to hate them. But, to the extent that you're interested in some, peripheral way about kickers, let's consider a nice tandem for you. How about that?
For example, suppose there was a tandem of kickers who have job security, play for high powered offenses in domes and guarantee you a weather-free option almost every week? Isn't that worth something? Well, Ryan Longwell and Garrett Hartley would not only provide you with kicking options for the Vikings and Saints, but they'll also give you 15 out of 16 games in domes-- and 12 of those weeks you'll have at least one home dome game. That includes the run-up to the playoffs, the playoffs and Super Bowl (assuming you finish in week 16). Aside from week 7, your reliable kicker will be in a dome. How about that?
It'll cost you, though. You can forget that awesome sixth running back or wide receiver. I mean, you might not have Sammie Stroughter on your team. So if Josh Freeman becomes an awesome quarterback in his second year, and the Buccaneers become a pass-happy club, and one of their starting receivers gets hurt, and when that guy gets hurt they don't plug in Arrelious Benn ... you might miss out on a spot start from Stroughter.
Oh, you'll also be subject to ridicule from your league. You'll probably be the first owner to take a kicker (and definitely the first one to take two), which invites all kinds of scrutiny. You'll be expected to make the choice almost apologetically, as if you know what you're doing is wrong.
Well, don't worry about any of that. Make your choice and be proud of it. Conventional wisdom is against you, but as I've said many times, in every 12-team league you have 11 owners who are losers at the end of the year. You don't have to take a kicker before your starting tight end, but you can make sure that you have a kicker from a good team with no weather issues. That won't guarantee you anything, but it will give you an advantage. And when other owners whine and complain that they missed the playoffs by one game after losing their last contest by one point, you'll know you made the right decision.
By the way, if you only need to draft one, you could go with the Cowboys kicker. They have 12 dome games, including weeks 11-16. Of course, we're not 100 percent sure who that will be right now, which makes Longwell and Hartley look even more appealing.
Or, you could just laugh at the owner who takes kickers a little early and grab that extra receiver you'll never start instead. Just don't go crying to them when you lose a game by two points that could have put you in the playoffs. Kickers aren't cool or interesting. But they're a position you have to start every week and they score points for you. I suggest that if you're analyzing players anyway, you make sure you get a good one -- even if it means taking them before you're "supposed" to take them.
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@hotmail.com.
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