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The Big Gryzbowski / more on Jay Cutler

Posted Aug. 31 at 03:00 AM

I posted the deal on Jay Cutler yesterday, and Brian Grzybowski followed that up by digging up some individual numbers. Most notably, Grzybowski wondered whether Cutler might challenge George Blanda’s record for turnovers in a season.

Below are some team numbers. They show teams that have given up the most sacks and interceptions since the NFL went to the 16-game schedule in 1978.


MOST SACKS IN A SEASON, 1978-2009
Teams allowing at least 64 sacks (4 per game) since the move to the 16-game schedule.

  Sacks  Year
    104    1986   Philadelphia Eagles
    78    1997   Arizona Cardinals
    76    2002   Houston Texans
    72    1987   Philadelphia Eagles
    72    2006   Oakland Raiders
    69    1985   Atlanta Falcons
    69    2000   Carolina Panthers
    68    2005   Houston Texans
    67    1984   Atlanta Falcons
    67    1992   Seattle Seahawks
    67    1998   Oakland Raiders
    66    1984   New England Patriots
    66    1987   New York Jets
    66    2001   Atlanta Falcons
    66    2001   Detroit Lions
    66    2004   Chicago Bears
    65    1985   St. Louis Cardinals
    65    1992   New England Patriots
    65    1994   Houston Oilers
    64    1984   Minnesota Vikings
    64    1986   Los Angeles Raiders
    64    1992   Philadelphia Eagles
    64    1997   Philadelphia Eagles
    64    1999   Detroit Lions


MOST INTERCEPTIONS IN A SEASON, 1978-2009
Teams throwing at least 25 interceptions since the move to the 16-game schedule.

   INT   Year
    36    1988   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    36    1978   San Francisco 49ers
    34    1981   New England Patriots
    34    1998   San Diego Chargers
    34    1978   Minnesota Vikings
    33    1997   New Orleans Saints
    33    1986   San Diego Chargers
    33    1983   San Diego Chargers
    32    1981   Los Angeles Rams
    32    1987   Atlanta Falcons
    32    2009   Detroit Lions
    32    1983   Green Bay Packers
    31    1983   New York Giants
    31    1986   Houston Oilers
    31    1985   Buffalo Bills
    31    1978   Oakland Raiders
    30    1984   Buffalo Bills
    30    1989   Phoenix Cardinals
    30    2000   San Diego Chargers
    30    1978   Baltimore Colts
    30    1999   Arizona Cardinals
    30    1980   New York Jets
    30    1984   Green Bay Packers
    30    1996   Atlanta Falcons
    30    1996   New York Jets
    30    1999   New Orleans Saints
    30    1985   San Diego Chargers
    30    1978   Cincinnati Bengals
    30    1978   San Diego Chargers
    30    2005   Green Bay Packers
    29    1991   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    29    1992   Denver Broncos
    29    1983   Houston Oilers
    29    1985   Minnesota Vikings
    29    1980   Green Bay Packers
    29    1979   Los Angeles Rams
    29    2009   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    29    1981   Minnesota Vikings
    29    2000   New York Jets
    28    1985   Philadelphia Eagles
    28    1984   Los Angeles Raiders
    28    1981   Oakland Raiders
    28    2007   St. Louis Rams
    28    1984   New Orleans Saints
    28    1978   New York Jets
    28    1983   New York Jets
    28    1989   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    28    1983   Buffalo Bills
    28    1978   Chicago Bears
    28    1983   Cleveland Browns
    28    1980   Houston Oilers
    28    1988   New England Patriots
    28    1998   Indianapolis Colts
    27    1979   Detroit Lions
    27    1985   Green Bay Packers
    27    2002   St. Louis Rams
    27    1991   Philadelphia Eagles
    27    1979   Cleveland Browns
    27    1981   New Orleans Saints
    27    1981   Cleveland Browns
    27    1978   New York Giants
    27    1986   Green Bay Packers
    27    1988   Dallas Cowboys
    27    2009   Chicago Bears
    27    1989   New England Patriots
    27    1985   Pittsburgh Steelers
    27    1989   Dallas Cowboys
    27    1980   New England Patriots
    27    1994   New England Patriots
    27    1994   Washington Redskins
    26    2004   Miami Dolphins
    26    1980   San Francisco 49ers
    26    1984   Dallas Cowboys
    26    1992   Indianapolis Colts
    26    1984   Seattle Seahawks
    26    1991   Seattle Seahawks
    26    1985   Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    26    1980   San Diego Chargers
    26    1980   Miami Dolphins
    26    2001   Cincinnati Bengals
    26    1979   Pittsburgh Steelers
    26    1987   Detroit Lions
    26    1979   Tampa Bay Buccaneers


—Ian Allan


Readers' Comments

Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Aug. 31 at 03:05 AM

At quick glance -- please correct me if I am wrong -- it looks like none of Martz's teams are on either of these lists. Sorry, Brian.

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 31 at 03:31 AM

I think the 2002 Rams were a Martz team. Surprising that Martz's Lions and Niners aren't there.

Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Aug. 31 at 03:32 AM

Moishe: I see the '02 Rams on the bottom list with 27 INTs, but otherwise your point is well-taken. On the other hand, I also see the '09 Bears on the same list, also with 27 INTs - which might be even more important. Does Martz x Cutler = a good thing in terms of avoiding turnovers?

Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 31 at 04:45 AM

Teams don't throw as many interceptions or allow as many sacks as they used to. Note that you just don't see many teams from recent years on these lists. (So maybe I just shouldn't have even posted the deal). But I can assure you that the Bears are the clear frontrunner to lead the league in both sacks and interceptions. I will dig it out later, but I believe that Martz's last five teams (Rams, Lions, Lions, 49ers, 49ers) rank last in sacks, interceptions, fumbles and rushing -- last in all four categories over that five-year period, versus the other 32 teams.

Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Aug. 31 at 05:24 AM

Right, so the original point I was driving at was the statistical hole a QB can be placed in when you add sacks + interceptions + fumbles (you can also consider negative yardage caused by sacks). Most of my leagues deduct one point per sack and 2 points for any kind of turnover. Both of these lists above contain mostly journeyman type QBs, rookies, and Brett Favre's 607 attempt season from 2005. Unlike the Jay Cutler/Mike Martz combo, the vast majority of these QBs would not have been selected in a Fantasy draft. Chuck Long? David Woodley? And the overwhelming majority of the teams on both these lists finished dead last in their divisions. Again, the idea is that when you combine all the negatives you are looking at a player that is doing your fantasy team more harm than good. But you must combine all of them. Peyton Manning's rookie season (1998) is a good example. It is on this list due to his 28 interceptions that season. But Manning was sacked only 22 times and lost 1 fumble. That would equal 80 negative points. Last year, in his 4th season in the league, Jay Cutler threw 26 interceptions, lost 1 fumble (although he put the ball on the ground 9 times) and was sacked 35 times for a negative point total of 89 points (additionally, he lost 204 yards to sacks). If you combine Cutler's propensity for throwing interceptions with Martz's system and a very shaky O-line then it seems to be a recipe for disaster. For whatever reason, when people hear the name Mike Martz they conjure up images of Kurt Warner's 2001 season. But let's keep in mind that Warner is a HOFer and he played on a team with a bunch of future HOFers. Left tackle, the running back, both starting WRs (and Ricky Proehl was pretty good in the slot). And still he had 38 sacks, 22 Ints., 4 fumbs. (-94 ponts. Not including 233 yards lost). Marc Bulger in 2003 (15 games): 37 sacks, 22 and 8 (-89. -288 yards). Jon Kitna 2006: 63/22/9 (-125. -388 yards). J.T. O'Sullivan 2008 (9 games): 32/11/6 (-66. -197 yards). I know everyone thinks that Cutler is Chicago's football savior but the stats don't indicate that. By any measure ment he is closer to being in the Kitna/Bulger group than in the Manning/Warner group. And I know he switched teams last year and that has a lot to do with his regression...but Brett Favre switched teams last year also.

Posted by Todd Weigel | Aug. 31 at 07:56 AM

I didn't follow football in the mid-80's. Do you have any explanation for the 1986 Philadelphia Eagles? That's 33% more sacks than the next team on the list! 6.5 sacks/game, when no one else has allowed more than 5!

Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Aug. 31 at 08:18 AM

Todd: That was Randall Cunningham's first season with extensive playing time. Cunningham always took a lot of "sacks" - 72 that year, as many as 60 later on - but he was the signature running QB of the day. When a running back is tackled behind the line of scrimmage, it's just a play for negative yardage. When a QB is - and Cunningham did gain 540 yards on the ground that season - it's a sack. Not the same, in many cases, as when Tom Brady takes one. Or, in the case of that team, when Ron Jaworski did.

Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 31 at 08:56 AM

Clarifying Justin's answer: When any player (quarterback or running back) is tackled behind the line of scrimmage, the game's statistician must decide whether the player intended to run or pass. It's a judgement call. That's why you'll sometimes see adjustments on those stats. A negative run by a running back will be changed to a sack after closer examination, or a designed-type run by a quarterback will be changed from a sack to a negative run. Maybe some of those Cunningham sacks were actually designed (and failed) runs, but he liked to run around back there. Michael Vick is another mobile quarterback who gets sacked a lot.

Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Aug. 31 at 02:27 PM

Ian's right; I should have written more about the way Cunningham played. I didn't mean to suggest that EVERY play on which the QB is tackled behind the line is scored as a sack; when it's clear the QB means to run, the scorers usually get it right and count it as a run for negative yardage. But Cunningham was less like the young Mike Vick, who I remember getting nervous and bolting on a lot of plays, and more like Ben Roethlisberger or the young Donovan McNabb. He seemed to believe he could make a play out of any circumstance, so he'd use his speed to keep things alive for what sometimes seemed an impossibly long time. By the time you knew he was running and not just rolling around, he'd have found a lane for 12 yards. But sometimes he just wouldn't give up, and he'd roll into a sack whether he'd made up his mind to run already or not. Notice that he threw for 3,808 yards in '88, and wasn't far off that pace in 12 games in '87. One of my all-time favorites to watch, but I sure wouldn't have wanted to coach him OR coach against him. Just gut-wrenching either way.

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