Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
Just in time for your draft, here’s another Strength of Schedule chart. Instead of being based on last year’s win-loss records, this one is based on how people feel the teams will do this year.
That makes sense. It’s pointless to call Arizona a 10-6 team, when it really looks more like a 7-9 or 8-8 club (at best) after losing Kurt Warner, Karlos Dansby and Antrel Rolle.
I used the projected win totals (the over-unders for each team) from bodog.com. No particular reason. Other casinos, I’m sure, have similar numbers. A couple of the numbers looked out of whack. No way, for example, should the over-under figure for the Rams be 5 wins. No way they’re getting over that figure.
And the total didn’t quite add up right (they had the league at 256.5 wins and 255.5 losses), so I rolled down the Bears from 8 wins (also way too high) to 7.5.
When you use those gambling line figures, the Strength of Schedule works out as below.
The Texans, Eagles, Titans and Bengals project to play the hardest schedules. The Chargers, 49ers and Seahawks project to play the easiest.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – BASED ON OVER-UNDER WIN TOTALS
Win Loss Tie Pct
128 144 0 .471 San Diego
128 144 0 .471 San Francisco
128 144 0 .471 Seattle
129 143 0 .474 Kansas City
129 142 1 .476 St. Louis
130 141 1 .480 New Orleans
131 140 1 .483 Arizona
132 140 0 .485 Atlanta
132 140 0 .485 Baltimore
133 139 0 .489 NY Jets
133 138 1 .491 Miami
133 138 1 .491 Pittsburgh
133 138 1 .491 Tampa Bay
134 138 0 .493 Carolina
136 136 0 .500 Denver
136 136 0 .500 Green Bay
136 135 1 .502 Minnesota
136 135 1 .502 Oakland
137 135 0 .504 Chicago
138 134 0 .507 Detroit
138 134 0 .507 Indianapolis
138 134 0 .507 Jacksonville
138 134 0 .507 New England
138 134 0 .507 Washington
138 133 1 .509 Cleveland
139 132 1 .513 Buffalo
140 132 0 .515 NY Giants
140 131 1 .517 Dallas
141 131 0 .518 Cincinnati
141 130 1 .520 Tennessee
143 129 0 .526 Philadelphia
144 128 0 .529 Houston
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Sep. 02 at 03:11 AM
I recall, Ian, that you had made note often over the past couple of years of a projected strength of schedule that was either unusually favorable (i.e., New England a couple of years ago) or unfavorable. When a team hit that SOS number, then you suggested (I believe) a possible 10% increase or decrease in projected stats. Otherwise, they were all middle-of-the-road enough not to make a big adjustment. Am I remembering correctly? If so, what are those numbers? I want to see if any of the teams projected SOS fits into that extreme (I don't think so) for this year. Thanks!