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Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

There were two ways I could have gone with this column. I chose the one that wasn't completely nuts.

Unlike with quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, I won't write about each of today's positions twice -- once for categories games and once for points games. Instead I'll tell you which players you should consider owning -- they're mostly the same players in both formats; categories games don't generally require us to own defenses -- and when I think a particular choice makes more sense in one format or the other, I'll say so. I've been averaging roughly 3,000 words per column, and that's running down one position at a time. Combining the formats was the only way to keep this from getting out of hand.

Before we talk about other challenges, though, let's talk quickly about a new one.

FANTASY INDEX SUPER LEAGUE

Fantasy Index is running our own challenge contest this year -- and it's 100 percent free to play.

How it works:

You choose any mix of players (with no salary restrictions), putting together a weekly dream team of 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 2 TEs and 2 Ks.

Scoring is 1 point per 20 passing yards; 4 points per passing touchdown; 1 point per 10 rushing or receiving yards; 6 points per rushing, receiving or return touchdown; and 1 point per kicking point.

You'll all be competing against each other -- and me (team name: FantasyIndexJE), and Fantasy Index publisher Ian Allan. Highest points total each week wins a prize; highest total for the season wins a prize package including a Fantasy Index SuperFanatic subscription, a championship trophy and the honor of participating in the mock draft featured in next year's magazine.

And I mentioned this was free?

Go here -- http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2010/FantasyIndex -- to register and pick your initial lineup. I'll post my picks in this column each week.

Beat this in Week 1:

QB1 -- Drew Brees

QB2 -- Peyton Manning

RB1 -- Chris Johnson

RB2 -- Adrian Peterson

WR1 -- Larry Fitzgerald

WR2 -- Andre Johnson

WR3 -- Randy Moss

TE1 -- Dallas Clark

TE2 -- Antonio Gates

K1 -- Rob Bironas

K2 -- Nate Kaeding

Back to it.

TIGHT ENDS

Elite

Jermichael Finley is supremely gifted and seems to be on the same line of the same page as Aaron Rodgers. Extrapolate from Finley's last seven games of last season -- not even counting his 6-for-159 eruption in the playoff loss to Arizona -- and you get 951 yards (10.9 per reception) and 9 touchdowns. I bet he beats those numbers in 2010, and since he isn't nearly the highest-priced tight end, you own him everywhere.

Antonio Gates is the only other player I'll group with Finley, and Gates' numbers could be even better. His full-season numbers from 2009: 1,157 yards (14.6 per reception) and 8 touchdowns. In other words, what I now expect from Finley you could have had from Gates a year ago -- and Gates may have turned 30 in the meantime, but that concern is offset by Vincent Jackson's absence. Someone has to work the deep part of the field in San Diego. Malcom Floyd will be one such someone; Gates will be another, at least part-time. I'm curious to see how the Chargers use Legedu Naanee, who's previously been mostly a slot option. If Gates gets to go long a good part of the time, he's just as good a play as Finley in categories games -- albeit at a higher price.

Not Quite Elite

This looks like something of a golden age for tight ends, what with Dallas Clark coming off of 1,106 yards (11.1 per reception) and 10 touchdowns, V.D. coming off of 965 yards (12.4 per reception) and 13 touchdowns, and neither making my shortlist of elite. Own either if you feel strongly about him -- and the same goes for Brent Celek, Tony Gonzalez and possibly Jason Witten.

Me, I think all of these guys are good, but not essential at this year's prices. In Fanball's Football Challenge, for instance, Finley costs $650; the next-lowest salary among players I've named above is Celek's $830. It's not that I don't want to own two top TEs, or even that I couldn't. But I think there are better ways to spend the extra salary at other positions, and I do like at least one of my options farther down the salary lists.

Not Quite Not Quite Elite

This really should be its own category, for a reason distinct to my column as opposed to any other fantasy writer's. Last year I wrote the following just before the season started -- in context of a rundown that named all of five tight ends I was considering in the categories games: "Categories dark horse: Vernon Davis." And yet was V.D. one of the three tight ends I actually carried -- three-fifths of my candidates, 60 percent?

Of course not.

So, then, a new category: Not Quite Not Quite Elite, meant to finger the one player I won't own who will no doubt help you beat me badly. This year I say it's Dustin Keller, who isn't much less gifted than V.D. but continues to face massive quarterbacking and system issues. I don't love Mark Sanchez yet, and I don't buy that the Jets will throw enough to make any of Sanchez's targets viable, and even if they do I'm not sure the viable target will be Keller. Considering how Rex Ryan prefers to play, there's a disproportionate amount of receiving talent on the roster.

Granted, Keller is a beast, and his playoff performance (per game: 60 yards (15.1 per reception) and 1 touchdown) certainly served notice of bigger possibilities. But I lean away from taking the shot, and toward carrying a higher-salaried player as the backup to Finley and my other guy.

That other guy being:

What I Know

Athletically, there's Keller, then there's V.D., then there's Jermaine Gresham. Dude tore his ACL late in his senior season in high school, and you saw him at Oklahoma. Then he missed last season at Oklahoma with torn cartilage in his knee, and if you didn't see him in the preseason just close your eyes and remember how he looked at Oklahoma. He's indestructible. He's just incredible. Minus both injuries he might have been the second-greatest athlete in NFL history (after Bo Jackson, of course). Bodies that stand 6'5" and weigh 261 lbs. should not move like Gresham's does. He's on my teams.

What Do I Know?

That's about all I see at this position this year. I suspect Finley and Gresham will play for me most weeks, with Gates perhaps getting my taxi slot -- at least in categories games; my likelier backup in points games is Celek -- while I wait for salary room to be cleared by emerging cheapos.

But the fact that I don't see a thing doesn't necessarily mean that the thing is nowhere to be seen. I like Zach Miller East but don't see him getting enough playing time to be challenge-worthy early in the season -- and I'm not sure which of the following players I like best, but it wouldn't surprise me to see one or more of them beat one or more of the players I've named above: Chris Cooley, Heath Miller, Zach Miller West, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kellen Winslow (points only), either but not both of New England rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

KICKERS

I pick my kickers by formula, more or less.

In CATEGORIES GAMES, own the cheapest players from the best offenses, rostering at least one backup and trying hard not to roster multiple players who could lose their jobs in midseason -- which does occasionally mean favoring a better kicker over a kicker in a better situation. The Ravens could have a very good offense in 2010, but their mid-2009 jettisoning of Steven Hauschka should not be ignored. If you own Billy Cundiff, you'll have to be ready to replace him, because you have to figure the Ravens themselves won't hesitate to replace him if he struggles. And since I prefer another player who makes me comparably nervous -- the Cowboys' David Buehler, who's even cheaper than Cundiff -- I don't much want to start the season with Cundiff on my roster. Remember that kicking points are their own category; when in doubt, it can pay (and often has in the past) to climb the salary lists a bit.

In POINTS GAMES, again, own the cheapest players from the best offenses, but here (a) you don't have to roster a backup if you think you can use the extra roster spot to play more matchups at another position and thus make up the 25-50 points you'll lose by eating your three starters' bye weeks (I wouldn't take this chance myself, but points are points are points, and there is no special need to have them scored by a kicker instead of anyone else); and (b) you also want to consider how good each kicker's defense is, as the 3 points you get per team win can do a lot to separate two roster candidates. And the bit about job security goes here, too.

With that in mind, these (mostly) affordable kickers will work with decent or better offenses:

Atlanta -- Matt Bryant

Baltimore -- Billy Cundiff

Cincinnati -- Mike Nugent

Dallas -- David Buehler

Denver -- Matt Prater

Houston -- Neil Rackers

New Orleans -- Garrett Hartley

New York Giants -- Lawrence Tynes

New York Jets -- Nick Folk

San Francisco -- Joe Nedney

Including the Broncos, Giants, Jets and 49ers on that list may be pushing it -- and including Prater and Folk may be pushing it two ways; neither is very good. Three others I might consider, only because I believe they are good:

Cleveland -- Phil Dawson

Kansas City -- Ryan Succop

Miami -- Dan Carpenter

DEFENSES

And if you think that wasn't helpful, you ain't seen nothing yet.

All I do to pick my defenses in the games that require us to own them is work my way up from the bottom of the salary lists, owning three of the first dozen remotely defensible choices I come to. I know I've written this time and again in the past, and I know a lot of you have disagreed with me, but I've always followed my own advice and it's rarely if ever hurt me: The events that score points in our games for defensive and special teams units are almost all random -- so you do yourself no good by spending money on a "good" one. Just own the best cheap ones, heavily favoring teams that should win a bunch of games, and use the savings at other positions.

(Frankly, I think defense should play no role in the challenges. I like fewer elements of chance involved, not more. That's the biggest reason why I play these games in the first place; I can't stand losing my season over an injury or two, as happens to someone in every office league every year.)

But with all of that said, this year there isn't a really cheap unit as good (judging by personnel) as San Francisco's was last year. So it might pay to creep up the salary lists at least slightly. I don't think I've ever owned a defense as expensive as this year's Jets, but I'm sure that will be the most common choice at the start of the season.

Working from the bottom of the lists up to the Jets (using the salaries from Fanball's points games), these are the choices I consider defensible:

Oakland ($1100) -- marginally better personnel than the likely won/lost record would indicate. Does that sound enthusiastic?

Miami ($1210) -- at least has the look of an 8-8 team.

Washington ($1300) -- stranger things have happened than a Mike Shanahan team randomly going 10-6 and sneaking into the playoffs.

Cleveland ($1530) -- did, as several readers pointed out, play much better at the end of the season in 2009; not as well as Cincinnati had played at the end of 2008, but still. The Browns seem likely to try to ugly things up, scratch out a 7-9 or 8-8 season by way of a bunch of low-scoring games. Also: Fewer of the events that score points for defensive and special teams units are truly random for units that feature Josh Cribbs.

Atlanta ($1680) -- has the look, says me, of a 10-6 team that could sneak up to 11-5 or even 12-4.

Houston ($1840) -- I say the Texans miss the playoffs again, which makes the Falcons a better play, but what do I know?

San Francisco ($2100) -- this is at least the second time I will write that Patrick Willis is an all-timer; won't be the last.

Cincinnati ($2150) -- kind of an anonymous bunch, but a bunch of maulers even so. Remember, Cincy won the division last year. Not Baltimore, not Pittsburgh.

Tennessee ($2170) -- same comment about 10-6 records and random playoff appearances for Jeff Fisher as for Mike Shanahan, but that is a bet I'd much rather make at $1300 than at $2170.

Baltimore ($2230) -- starting to look old, and downright bad at the corners. That may mean that the Ravens, as strange as this is to say, will be involved in some shootouts this season -- which has me coming around some on Joe Flacco. More on that next time; I'll be publishing a second challenges column this week, on Friday, to react to the cheat game and note a few ways my thinking has changed lately.

New York Jets ($2330) -- I don't think this unit can be historically great, so I probably won't join the crowd. Something tells me 10-6 or even 9-7 could win the AFC East this season, and the Wild Cards will come from elsewhere.

Back soon.

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