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First-round RBs -- safer than QBs?

Posted Mar. 06 at 09:58 AM

Yesterday, we posted a chart showing the high number of first-round quarterbacks who haven’t done much in the pros. So today, when I saw the numbers for running backs go across my desk, it caught my eye.

The below chart shows all tailbacks who’ve started at least 25 games over the last four years. They're ordered by fantasy production per start, based on the scoring system of 1 point for every 10 run/rec yards and 6 points for TDs.

As with quarterbacks, you can see that there are plenty who’ve been selected outside the first round who’ve had success. Unlike quarterbacks, however, the bottom of the list isn’t dominated by high pick washouts.

In the following chart, running backs selected in the first round appear in bold. There are eight second-rounders (Barber, Portis, Dillon, Jones-Drew, Jordan, J.Jones, Henry, Foster). There are seven third-rounders (Westbrook, Gore, Martin, Droughns, Green, Brown and Barlow). Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis-Williams-Mellencamp were selected in the fourth round, and Parker wasn’t drafted at all.

FPG
21.6 Larry Johnson
21.2 LaDainian Tomlinson
17.7 Tiki Barber
16.8 Brian Westbrook
16.7 Shaun Alexander
16.5 Domanick Davis (Domanick Williams)
16.1 Steven Jackson
14.9 Frank Gore
14.4 Clinton Portis
14.3 Edgerrin James
14.2 Corey Dillon (some RBBC)
14.1 Curtis Martin
13.6 Maurice Jones-Drew (backup)
13.0 Willie Parker
13.0 Rudi Johnson
12.8 Ronnie Brown
12.8 Willis McGahee
12.5 LaMont Jordan
12.2 Julius Jones (some RBBC)
12.2 Deuce McAllister
11.9 Jamal Lewis
11.8 Reuben Droughns
11.7 Reggie Bush (RBBC)
11.6 Ahman Green
11.5 Thomas Jones
11.3 Chris Brown
11.1 Fred Taylor
10.9 Kevin Jones
10.3 Warrick Dunn
10.3 Travis Henry
9.6 Cadillac Williams
9.4 Kevan Barlow
9.2 DeShaun Foster

--Ian Allan

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