Viva Murillo!

If you're a long-time fantasy owner, it's funny to look back at your old strategies and perceptions. It's amazing how silly and wrong we used to be, especially now that the game is all so much clearer. For example-- and this is kind of embarrassing-- there was a time when I thought Brandon Jackson was a great waiver wire pickup and Michael Vick wasn't worth a roster spot. I thought Larry Johnson was the man to have behind Clinton Portis, and Kareem Huggins was the backup to Cadillac Williams.

Ah, youth. The silly strategies of Week 1 are so amusing now, aren't they? Of course, now we're the greybeards of week 3, seasoned vets who know what's going on. I'm sure I have a good handle on the waiver wire now, right?

Nope. Not me. To paraphrase Dennis Green, the waiver wire is what I thought it was: Half goldmine, half landmine. Larry Johnson leads to Keiland Williams, who leads to Ryan Torain. And in the end, you might have a backup in a Mike Shanahan offense.

So what's the point? Michael Vick is the point. And Peyton Hillis. And Mark Clayton. Guys who can help you win games are out there; they just might not be the people you think they are. The popular pickup in week four could be back on the waiver wire in week 6. Perceptions change on a weekly basis, and what we "know" in week 4 will look silly a month from now.

Okay, you know all of this, and you're not going to stop using the waiver wire ... so what's the point? Well, I'd just like to remind you about the other side of the equation. If it's risky to pick up someone, and you have to make room for them on your bench, it's risky to drop someone as well. And that's where you can get into a lot of trouble.

I'm like a hoarder sometimes when it comes to my bench: I keep a lot of junk I might be able to use someday, but most of it should be thrown out. Well, I'm still haunted by a drop a made a few years ago, when DeAngelo Williams was doing nothing and stuck in a time-share with a younger (presumed better) runner. I got rid of him, and someone else picked him up and earned a ticket to the playoffs. My ticket! But I threw him away, and suffered for it.

You know the waiver wire has bad players and good players on it. But so does your bench. You're taking the same risk dropping someone as you are picking one up. It's easy to say that the waiver wire is like the lottery, and you can't win if you don't play. But it costs you to play, and the guy you drop could end up being what you wanted from the waiver wire. Please make sure the player you drop has less potential than the guy you pick up. What you think you know today might look awfully foolish tomorrow.

I've picked up Keiland Wiliams and Peyton Hillis, so I know all about his and miss. I've dropped a lot of junk (so far) as well. But you might have a better bench than I do, so take a good look at what you have before you throw it away. You might "get lucky" during the overnight waivers and end up downgrading your team. I've done it many times. Good luck this week, and may George Blanda (1927-2010) rest in peace.

You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@hotmail.com.

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