Ian Allan
Below is a ranking of the teams ranked 1 thru 32, but it’s a little different than what you see at other sites. I’m not ranking the teams based on their relative strengths; I’m just ranking based on how I think they’ll perform in their remaining games – so strength of schedule is factored into it.
Each team is credited with its existing wins through Week 4. Then, I assigned each team some part of a win for each of its games in the remaining 13 weeks. If I am essentially positive a team will win a game, I give a 95 percent grade (meaning it would win 19 of 20 meetings between the teams). If it’s a coin toss game, each team gets 50 percent (or a half win in the projected total).
Following this process for every team and every game, the Ravens, Saints, Falcons and Jets project to finish with the best records. I’ve got the Panthers, Bills and Lions as the teams with the best chance of winning fewer than five games. And I’ve got Seattle edging San Francisco to win the NFC Worst. I’ve got a close eye on those two teams, because if they can continue to struggle, that division could become the first ever to send a team to the playoffs with a losing record.
Under my projections (and please leave comments letting me know which games you think I’m way off on), it shakes out this way:
First round byes
Ravens, Saints, Jets, Packers
Other division winners
Chargers, Colts, Cowboys, Seahawks
Wild-card teams
Falcons, Vikings, Steelers, Patriots
PROJECTED WIN TOTALS FOR EACH TEAM
11.4 Baltimore
11.0 New Orleans
10.9 Atlanta
10.9 NY Jets
10.8 Pittsburgh
10.4 New England
9.9 Indianapolis
9.5 San Diego
9.4 Houston
9.3 Green Bay
9.3 Kansas City
8.9 Dallas
8.8 Minnesota
8.4 Miami
8.3 Cincinnati
8.1 NY Giants
8.0 Philadelphia
8.0 Seattle
7.8 Chicago
7.7 Washington
7.6 Denver
7.5 Tennessee
7.4 San Francisco
7.2 Tampa Bay
6.5 Jacksonville
6.0 Arizona
5.9 St. Louis
5.9 Oakland
5.2 Cleveland
3.8 Detroit
3.6 Buffalo
3.4 Carolina
GAME-BY-GAME PROJECTIONS FOR EACH TEAM
Arizona
win St. Louis (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Oakland (H)
loss San Diego (A)
20% New Orleans (H)
bye week
25% Seattle (A)
40% Tampa Bay (H)
10% Minnesota (A)
50% Seattle (H)
20% Kansas City (A)
45% San Francisco (H)
55% St. Louis (H)
45% Denver (H)
40% Carolina (A)
30% Dallas (H)
20% San Francisco (A)
Atlanta
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Arizona (H)
win New Orleans (A)
win San Francisco (H)
60% Cleveland (A)
45% Philadelphia (A)
65% Cincinnati (H)
bye week
85% Tampa Bay (H)
50% Baltimore (H)
80% St. Louis (A)
65% Green Bay (H)
60% Tampa Bay (A)
75% Carolina (A)
50% Seattle (A)
60% New Orleans (H)
95% Carolina (H)
Baltimore
win NY Jets (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
85% Denver (H)
50% New England (A)
95% Buffalo (H)
bye week
80% Miami (H)
50% Atlanta (A)
85% Carolina (A)
95% Tampa Bay (H)
55% Pittsburgh (H)
55% Houston (A)
60% New Orleans (H)
65% Cleveland (A)
60% Cincinnati (H)
Buffalo
loss Miami (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
loss New England (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
50% Jacksonville (H)
bye week
5% Baltimore (A)
25% Kansas City (A)
55% Chicago (H)
60% Detroit (H)
15% Cincinnati (A)
20% Pittsburgh (H)
10% Minnesota (A)
50% Cleveland (H)
20% Miami (A)
35% New England (H)
10% NY Jets (A)
Carolina
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
45% Chicago (H)
bye week
35% San Francisco (H)
45% St. Louis (A)
30% New Orleans (H)
30% Tampa Bay (A)
15% Baltimore (H)
20% Cleveland (A)
20% Seattle (A)
25% Atlanta (H)
60% Arizona (H)
5% Pittsburgh (A)
5% Atlanta (A)
Chicago
win Detroit (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Green Bay (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
55% Carolina (A)
55% Seattle (H)
50% Washington (H)
bye week
45% Buffalo (A)
45% Minnesota (H)
20% Miami (A)
45% Philadelphia (H)
40% Detroit (A)
40% New England (H)
20% Minnesota (A)
40% NY Jets (H)
25% Green Bay (A)
Cincinnati
loss New England (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Cleveland (A)
85% Tampa Bay (H)
bye week
35% Atlanta (A)
60% Miami (H)
50% Pittsburgh (H)
25% Indianapolis (A)
85% Buffalo (H)
25% NY Jets (A)
50% New Orleans (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
75% Cleveland (H)
55% San Diego (H)
40% Baltimore (A)
Cleveland
loss Tampa Bay (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
win Cincinnati (H)
40% Atlanta (H)
20% Pittsburgh (A)
15% New Orleans (A)
bye week
25% New England (H)
25% NY Jets (H)
40% Jacksonville (A)
80% Carolina (H)
25% Miami (A)
50% Buffalo (A)
25% Cincinnati (A)
35% Baltimore (H)
40% Pittsburgh (H)
Dallas
loss Washington (A)
loss Chicago (H)
win Houston (A)
bye week
65% Tennessee (H)
45% Minnesota (A)
70% NY Giants (H)
85% Jacksonville (H)
45% Green Bay (A)
45% NY Giants (A)
90% Detroit (H)
65% New Orleans (H)
30% Indianapolis (A)
65% Philadelphia (H)
65% Washington (H)
70% Arizona (A)
50% Philadelphia (A)
Denver
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Tennessee (A)
15% Baltimore (A)
40% NY Jets (H)
60% Oakland (H)
40% San Francisco (A)
bye week
60% Kansas City (H)
25% San Diego (A)
70% St. Louis (H)
45% Kansas City (A)
55% Arizona (A)
45% Oakland (A)
55% Houston (H)
50% San Diego (H)
Detroit
loss Chicago (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
50% St. Louis (H)
20% NY Giants (A)
bye week
45% Washington (H)
15% NY Jets (H)
40% Buffalo (A)
10% Dallas (A)
15% New England (H)
60% Chicago (H)
40% Green Bay (H)
25% Tampa Bay (A)
20% Miami (A)
40% Minnesota (H)
Green Bay
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss Chicago (A)
win Detroit (H)
53% Washington (A)
60% Miami (H)
60% Minnesota (H)
35% NY Jets (A)
55% Dallas (H)
bye week
25% Minnesota (A)
35% Atlanta (A)
70% San Francisco (H)
60% Detroit (A)
30% New England (A)
70% NY Giants (H)
75% Chicago (H)
Houston
win Indianapolis (H)
win Washington (A)
loss Dallas (H)
win Oakland (A)
55% NY Giants (H)
80% Kansas City (H)
bye week
30% Indianapolis (A)
55% San Diego (H)
55% Jacksonville (A)
35% NY Jets (A)
60% Tennessee (H)
45% Philadelphia (A)
45% Baltimore (H)
45% Tennessee (A)
45% Denver (A)
85% Jacksonville (H)
Indianapolis
loss Houston (A)
win NY Giants (H)
win Denver (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
80% Kansas City (H)
60% Washington (A)
bye week
70% Houston (H)
50% Philadelphia (A)
75% Cincinnati (H)
35% New England (A)
70% San Diego (H)
70% Dallas (H)
50% Tennessee (A)
85% Jacksonville (H)
70% Oakland (A)
75% Tennessee (H)
Jacksonville
win Denver (H)
loss San Diego (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
win Indianapolis (H)
50% Buffalo (A)
55% Tennessee (H)
25% Kansas City (A)
15% Dallas (A)
bye week
45% Houston (H)
60% Cleveland (H)
25% NY Giants (A)
25% Tennessee (A)
60% Oakland (H)
15% Indianapolis (A)
55% Washington (H)
15% Houston (A)
Kansas City
win San Diego (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win San Francisco (H)
bye week
20% Indianapolis (A)
20% Houston (A)
75% Jacksonville (H)
75% Buffalo (H)
40% Oakland (A)
40% Denver (A)
80% Arizona (H)
40% Seattle (A)
55% Denver (H)
25% San Diego (A)
50% St. Louis (A)
50% Tennessee (H)
55% Oakland (H)
Miami
win Buffalo (A)
win Minnesota (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss New England (H)
bye week
40% Green Bay (A)
45% Pittsburgh (H)
40% Cincinnati (A)
20% Baltimore (A)
60% Tennessee (H)
80% Chicago (H)
50% Oakland (A)
75% Cleveland (H)
35% NY Jets (A)
80% Buffalo (H)
80% Detroit (H)
35% New England (A)
Minnesota
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (H)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
35% NY Jets (A)
55% Dallas (H)
40% Green Bay (A)
35% New England (A)
90% Arizona (H)
55% Chicago (A)
75% Green Bay (H)
55% Washington (A)
90% Buffalo (H)
65% NY Giants (H)
80% Chicago (H)
40% Philadelphia (A)
60% Detroit (A)
New England
win Cincinnati (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Miami (A)
bye week
50% Baltimore (H)
45% San Diego (A)
65% Minnesota (H)
75% Cleveland (A)
35% Pittsburgh (A)
65% Indianapolis (H)
85% Detroit (A)
55% NY Jets (H)
60% Chicago (A)
70% Green Bay (H)
65% Buffalo (A)
65% Miami (H)
New Orleans
win Minnesota (H)
win San Francisco (A)
loss Atlanta (H)
win Carolina (H)
80% Arizona (A)
60% Tampa Bay (A)
85% Cleveland (H)
55% Pittsburgh (H)
70% Carolina (A)
bye week
95% Seattle (H)
35% Dallas (A)
50% Cincinnati (A)
95% St. Louis (H)
40% Baltimore (A)
40% Atlanta (A)
90% Tampa Bay (H)
NY Giants
win Carolina (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
win Chicago (H)
45% Houston (A)
80% Detroit (H)
30% Dallas (A)
bye week
45% Seattle (A)
55% Dallas (H)
40% Philadelphia (A)
75% Jacksonville (H)
70% Washington (H)
35% Minnesota (A)
60% Philadelphia (H)
30% Green Bay (A)
40% Washington (A)
NY Jets
loss Baltimore (H)
win New England (H)
win Miami (A)
win Buffalo (A)
65% Minnesota (H)
60% Denver (A)
bye week
65% Green Bay (H)
85% Detroit (A)
75% Cleveland (A)
65% Houston (H)
75% Cincinnati (H)
45% New England (A)
65% Miami (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
60% Chicago (A)
90% Buffalo (H)
Oakland
loss Tennessee (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss Houston (H)
40% San Diego (H)
25% San Francisco (A)
40% Denver (A)
60% Seattle (H)
60% Kansas City (H)
bye week
20% Pittsburgh (A)
50% Miami (H)
20% San Diego (A)
40% Jacksonville (A)
55% Denver (H)
30% Indianapolis (H)
45% Kansas City (A)
Philadelphia
loss Green Bay (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Washington (H)
45% San Francisco (A)
55% Atlanta (H)
50% Tennessee (A)
bye week
50% Indianapolis (H)
45% Washington (A)
60% NY Giants (H)
55% Chicago (A)
55% Houston (H)
35% Dallas (A)
40% NY Giants (A)
60% Minnesota (H)
50% Dallas (H)
Pittsburgh
win Atlanta (H)
win Tennessee (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
bye week
80% Cleveland (H)
55% Miami (A)
45% New Orleans (A)
50% Cincinnati (A)
65% New England (H)
80% Oakland (H)
80% Buffalo (A)
45% Baltimore (A)
60% Cincinnati (H)
60% NY Jets (H)
95% Carolina (H)
60% Cleveland (A)
San Diego
loss Kansas City (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win Arizona (H)
60% Oakland (A)
80% St. Louis (A)
55% New England (H)
75% Tennessee (H)
45% Houston (A)
bye week
75% Denver (H)
30% Indianapolis (A)
80% Oakland (H)
75% Kansas City (H)
75% San Francisco (H)
45% Cincinnati (A)
50% Denver (A)
San Francisco
loss Seattle (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
55% Philadelphia (H)
75% Oakland (H)
65% Carolina (A)
60% Denver (H)
bye week
80% St. Louis (H)
75% Tampa Bay (H)
55% Arizona (A)
30% Green Bay (A)
75% Seattle (H)
25% San Diego (A)
60% St. Louis (A)
80% Arizona (H)
Seattle
win San Francisco (H)
loss Denver (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss St. Louis (A)
bye week
45% Chicago (A)
75% Arizona (H)
40% Oakland (A)
55% NY Giants (H)
50% Arizona (A)
5% New Orleans (A)
60% Kansas City (H)
80% Carolina (H)
25% San Francisco (A)
50% Atlanta (H)
35% Tampa Bay (A)
80% St. Louis (H)
St. Louis
loss Arizona (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Washington (H)
win Seattle (H)
50% Detroit (A)
20% San Diego (H)
35% Tampa Bay (A)
55% Carolina (H)
bye week
20% San Francisco (A)
20% Atlanta (H)
30% Denver (A)
45% Arizona (A)
5% New Orleans (A)
50% Kansas City (H)
40% San Francisco (H)
20% Seattle (A)
Tampa Bay
win Cleveland (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
bye week
15% Cincinnati (A)
40% New Orleans (H)
65% St. Louis (H)
60% Arizona (A)
15% Atlanta (A)
70% Carolina (H)
25% San Francisco (A)
5% Baltimore (A)
40% Atlanta (H)
30% Washington (A)
75% Detroit (H)
65% Seattle (H)
10% New Orleans (A)
Tennessee
win Oakland (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
win NY Giants (A)
loss Denver (H)
35% Dallas (A)
45% Jacksonville (A)
50% Philadelphia (H)
25% San Diego (A)
bye week
40% Miami (A)
60% Washington (H)
40% Houston (A)
75% Jacksonville (H)
50% Indianapolis (H)
55% Houston (H)
50% Kansas City (A)
25% Indianapolis (A)
Washington
win Dallas (H)
loss Houston (H)
loss St. Louis (A)
win Philadelphia (A)
47% Green Bay (H)
40% Indianapolis (H)
50% Chicago (A)
55% Detroit (A)
bye week
55% Philadelphia (H)
40% Tennessee (A)
45% Minnesota (H)
30% NY Giants (A)
70% Tampa Bay (H)
35% Dallas (A)
45% Jacksonville (A)
60% NY Giants (H)
- Comments [0]
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
