Factoid
With the first draft of the Cleveland story done, I’m just starting to research one of the other teams that joined the NFL from the All-America Football Conference: the 49ers.
San Francisco is bringing Mike Martz aboard, who has a history of putting up big passing numbers everywhere he goes, but I don’t see him turning Alex Smith around. From what I’ve seen, I just don’t think that Smith can play. Doesn’t seem to have the necessary accuracy and decision-ability.
And when you play around with the numbers, they make Smith look pretty bad. Since the league went to a 16-game season in 1978 (also the year it liberalized the rules to encourage passing), 68 quarterbacks have been selected with first-round picks. However you arrange the stats from the first three years of those players’ careers, Smith comes out near the bottom – 54 percent completions, with a 19-31 ratio of TDs to interceptions. And Smith is 11-19 as a starter.
The following chart shows all of those quarterbacks (first rounders since 1978) who attempted at least 200 passes in their first three seasons. The guys are ordered by one of the key indicators – average gain per pass attempt.
Maybe the 49ers should just bag spending first-round picks on quarterbacks. This franchise has had three great quarterbacks in the last 30 years – Montana, Young and Garcia – but it’s gone 0-3 all-time with first-round picks, missing on Smith (apparently), Jim Druckenmiller and Steve Spurrier.
Average Per Att
8.3 Ben Roethlisberger (2004) Steelers
8.0 Dan Marino (1983) Dolphins
7.8 Daunte Culpepper (1999) Vikings
7.7 Chad Pennington (2000) Jets
7.7 Ken O’Brien (1983) Jets
7.5 Jim McMahon (1982) Bears
7.4 Jay Cutler (2006) Broncos
7.3 Peyton Manning (1998) Colts
7.3 Jim Everett (1986) Oilers
7.2 Bernie Kosar (1985) Browns
7.2 Philip Rivers (2004) Giants
7.2 Tony Eason (1983) Patriots
7.2 Dave Brown (1992) Giants
7.2 Carson Palmer (2003) Bengals
7.0 Timm Rosenbach (1989) Cardinals
6.9 Steve McNair (1995) Oilers
6.8 Michael Vick (2001) Falcons
6.8 Byron Leftwich (2003) Jaguars
6.8 David Carr (2002) Texans
6.7 Dave Wilson (1981) Saints
6.7 Troy Aikman (1989) Cowboys
6.7 Vinny Testaverde (1987) Buccaneers
6.7 J.P. Losman (2004) Bills
6.6 Todd Marinovich (1991) Raiders
6.6 John Elway (1983) Colts
6.5 Matt Leinart (2006) Cardinals
6.5 Tim Couch (1999) Browns
6.4 Steve Fuller (1979) Chiefs
6.4 Patrick Ramsey (2002) Redskins
6.4 Vince Young (2006) Titans
6.4 Jason Campbell (2005) Redskins
6.3 Chris Miller (1987) Falcons
6.3 Todd Blackledge (1983) Chiefs
6.3 Eli Manning (2004) Chargers
6.3 Doug Williams (1978) Buccaneers
6.3 Marc Wilson (1980) Raiders
6.2 Jeff George (1990) Colts
6.2 Jim Harbaugh (1987) Bears
6.2 Phil Simms (1979) Giants
6.2 Chuck Long (1986) Lions
6.2 Kerry Collins (1995) Panthers
6.2 Trent Dilfer (1994) Buccaneers
6.2 Heath Shuler (1994) Redskins
6.0 Cade McNown (1999) Bears
6.0 Drew Bledsoe (1993) Patriots
6.0 Rick Mirer (1993) Seahawks
5.9 Kelly Stouffer (1987) Cardinals
5.9 Donovan McNabb (1999) Eagles
5.8 Alex Smith (2005) 49ers
5.7 Kyle Boller (2003) Ravens
5.6 David Klinger (1992) Bengals
5.6 Jack Thompson (1979) Bengals
5.6 Ryan Leaf (1998) Chargers
5.6 Joey Harrington (2002) Lions
5.5 Steve Walsh (1989) Cowboys
4.9 Akili Smith (1999) Bengals
--Ian Allan
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