24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Dec. 10 at 09:32 PM
Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it. I forget whose joke that was, but it seems appropriate this week. You don't want to overrate it -- we've all seen quarterbacks and receivers come through with fine stats even in snowstorms -- but don't ignore it, either. Couple of years back the Browns and Bills played an 8-0 game in wintry conditions, and that was when the Browns at least had a pretty good offense. My feeling is, snow is one thing, but if you hear snow and high winds, well, passing games just don't work in those conditions. And speaking of....
Browns at Bills: Weather may be a factor here. Benjamin Watson has some appeal if you need a tight end, but I'll be checking the weather. I personally would limit myself to Hillis and maybe Fred Jackson, and that's about it. Wouldn't really want to do much with either passing game.
Falcons at Panthers: Michael Turner, and I don't think many will bench Matt Ryan or Roddy White. Jonathan Stewart, sure, but it's a tough matchup. Carolina passing game, no.
Packers at Lions: Bad week to be facing Aaron Rodgers in a playoff game. I would probably risk James Starks (I actually started Javarris James in a playoff game this week where I'd lost Frank Gore...I actually cheered when he scored his early touchdown. The 49 yards was just gravy.), and start pretty much any other starting Packer I had. I like Calvin Johnson, sort of, but I don't like Drew Stanton against the Packers defense.
Raiders at Jaguars: Weather shouldn't be a factor. Better running games than passing games should be. Maurice Jones-Drew owes me for costing me a title in Week 16 a year ago. The Raiders have a couple of nice running backs and little else. They're like the Panthers West. I guess I'd try Jacoby Ford if lacking a better option. Mike Sims-Walker and Zach Miller are receivers with ability who will play but I would not use. I would not, could not, in a boat. I would not, could not, in a moat. I ...
Giants at Vikings: Brett Favre's a gametime decision. I always assume he'll play, but I suppose anything is possible. I certainly wouldn't start the guy except in the league I named after him, where I obviously missed the playoffs. Percy Harvin is expected to miss the game, and my lineup will miss him. Giants will have Steve Smith active and maybe Hakeem Nicks. I wouldn't use either, but hey, they'll probably be an option.
Bengals at Steelers: Gotta start Carson Palmer. Don't want to, but last week I benched him (and Favre) for Chad Henne, and I'm not gonna do that again. Owens and The Ocho could be OK, Cedric Benson couldn't be. Steelers, well, I hear Ben Roethlisberger had his face rearranged this week. But, he'll start, and I like Pittsburgh's offense. Had we not decided to divide the suicide pool three ways (Yay us!), Pittsburgh would probably have been our pick, so naturally we're hoping they get upset.
Bucs at Washington: Washington's defense is terrible, so every Buc has value here. Santana Moss is fine for Washington, which doesn't have top cover corner Aqib Talib. Ryan Torain will likely start, but I wouldn't go near a Washington running back.
Rams at Saints: You can no longer assume the Saints will just steamroll opponents at home, because they haven't been. I'd use Steven Jackson and have to use Danny Amendola somewhere (unless I risk NY's Steve Smith). New Orleans has Pierre Thomas back, but Chris Ivory is the better option. And Saints wideouts look even better.
Seahawks at 49ers: There could be a three-way tie for first in the NFC West after this game. A wildcard team -- Giants, Eagles, Packers, Saints? -- will get to travel to this team's stadium in the first round and clobber them. Seattle might be without both starting wideouts, so I picked up Brandon Stokley in a "best lineup" league just in case. San Francisco goes back to Alex Smith at quarterback, which is the definition of six of one, half-dozen of the other, if you ask me.
Broncos at Cardinals: Choice matchup for Denver's offense, if you like defenses that can't stop either the run or the pass. There's the negative of the team's former running back coach calling the offensive plays, and who knows how that might go, but the playbook probably won't change much. Arizona starts a rookie who about a week ago Ken Whisenhunt appeared to show alarm at the idea of starting. I'm not using anyone, even though it's an equally favorable matchup for Arizona's offense.
Patriots at Bears: Snow, wind, frigid temperatures are in the forecast. For that reason, I am down on these passing games. I'd probably use Brady and Cutler anyway, but various receivers slip, and the matchup is tougher for various running backs. In short, an otherwise great fantasy matchup is ruined by weather worries. Should be a fun game to watch, though.
Dolphins at Jets: If you got burned by Jets players at New England, I don't blame you for not using them here. We all knew the Jets offense had no-show potential -- I mean, they've done it at least two other times this season -- so it shouldn't be that shocking, I guess. I actually opted for Javarris James over Shonn Greene this week, without regret. I suppose Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards have some small appeal; Edwards has a good history here. Miami, I don't want any part of them either. Weather not necessarily a factor here, but wind may be.
Kansas City at Chargers: Brodie Croyle in the house. Probably have to use Dwayne Bowe, and certainly Jamaal Charles, but I don't like Kansas City's offense otherwise. For San Diego, Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert may share the work at running back. Vincent Jackson should play, just in time to face me in the playoffs for the team I traded him to two months ago. Malcom Floyd to. Antonio Gates will likely limp around on his bum wheel, which answers the question of whether a one-legged Gates would be a better start than every other tight end (he is).
Eagles at Cowboys: Nice matchup for both offenses. Eagles may be without Asante Samuel, and Dallas' offense is playing well. Pass rush may bother Jon Kitna, but I'd consider him anyway. Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, the Eagles receivers; obviously great in this situation. I can't see Dallas sticking close for long. No Marion Barber, so Tashard Choice can be used, although Felix Jones will also play.
Ravens at Texans: If you're facing any Raven in a playoff game, don't get too excited about having a big lead entering Monday night. Houston really has nothing going on defense right now. Boldin, Mason, Rice, Flacco, maybe even McGahee and Houshmandzadeh (note I mentioned his name without dated Hooshyourmama reference). Baltimore's defense is tough, but I'd use Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson anyway. This game should help determine a lot of playoff matchups, and you can't beat that for edge of your seat entertainment (even though it otherwise carries minimal interest, Baltimore will be a wildcard and Houston won't).
Enjoy the games.
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Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 10 at 11:01 PM
Andy: Love the Dr. Suess reference. Takes me back to the good old days reading to my kids (before fantasy football and the internet). Lineup questions. TEAM 1: QB: Schaub vs. BAL or Garrard vs. OAK? Leaning toward Schaub because I don't believe Oakland has "fixed" its run D as some have said, and I think JAX exploits that all day. Starting Megatron and D-Jack @ WR (although I'm not expecting much from him having seen all 3 Dallas games last season) so my question is at FLEX. Torain (I'm not inclined to touch WAS backfield either until I see if it shakes out tomorrow), MoMo vs. GB, Floyd vs. KC (I'm not happy that V-Jax is playing either), M. Thomas vs. OAK, Gaffney @ AZ? TE: Keller vs. MIA or Shiancoe vs. NYG (Whoopee!)? D/ST: ATL @ CAR or TB @ WAS? TEAM 2: RB2/WR/FLEX (starting R. Rice-need 1 RB, 2 WR and 1 FLEX): Is Tashard the Choice vs. PHI or Lynch @ SF? Also have Torain and R. Brown. Leaning toward Choice. WR/FLEX: Megatron vs. GB, Fitz vs. DEN, S. Rice vs. NYG, Nicks @ MIN, Knox vs. NE (I've pretty much eliminated him due to effect of weather on deep passing game)? TE: Winslow @ WAS or Olsen vs. NE (Whoopee again!)? I have a connection to Fordham so I've seen Skelton play a few times and I really like his upside and he did look good in limited action last week, but I'm a little iffy on Fitz considering the situation. Thanks much for your help.
Posted by David Chaklai | Dec. 10 at 11:19 PM
Andy, I'm on a 4 game win streak (in large part thanks to snagging Vick of the waiver wire) which brought me from the depths to 6-7, and one win from a playoff spot. Still have major WR issues, have Wallace, but need to start another among, Knox (weather) Manningham & Nicks. (non-ppr) Your good advice would be appreciated. I was also set to start (along with MJD) the Law Firm over Choice & Matthews, assuming the Chicago weather would help an otherwise tough matchup, but your comments on the game seem to suggest otherwise, thoughts? Thanks
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 12:33 AM
Peter - Schaub should be fine. I'd use Floyd. Keller-Shiancoe, probably Keller. Think he scored twice against Miami last time? I like Atlanta's D more than Tampa's this week. team 2 I'd use choice. I wouldn't use Nicks or Knox, so go ahead with Calvin, Rice and Fitzgerald. At TE, Winslow. David - I'd chance manningham unless it's clear the weather won't be too awful for Knox. I just hate using guys like Nicks who have missed a lot of time to an injury and may be eased back in. At RB, Mathews would definitely be the last option. Chicago is very tough on opposing running backs, so I'd hesitate to use Law Firm. The need to use him is stronger for the Patriots, but it doesn't mean he'll do well. I like Choice a little better, personally. Although BJGE might be a better bet to score a short touchdown, Choice a better bet for total yards. Good luck.
Posted by Duane Stay | Dec. 11 at 01:40 AM
Andy, This weeks dilemma is...Ivory or Blount....Ivory or Tolbert....Eli Manning or Brady. That takes care of three leagues. Thanks
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 01:55 AM
Duane - blount....ivory....brady if conditions aren't horrible, eli if they are. I would be watching pregames. David - want to add, I don't like manningham much. If conditions aren't horrible, I would gamble on knox.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 11 at 02:20 AM
Andy: Thanks for the advice. As of now, Nicks is looking good to go. MOF, I'm hearing that he might play in two WR sets with Manningham with Smith playing in three WR sets in the slot. Barring a setback, a matchup with Asher Allen may be too good to pass up. If I hear anything tomorrow (as I have told you before, I have a family member who covers the Giants for a metro area paper and cable television outlet), I will pass on in this space.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 03:17 AM
Peter - I just worry about a guy coming off injury taking an early shot and being sidelined...you can't simulate that in practice.some owners are less wary of injured players than me. I just can't see nicks, off leg surgery, being fulltime.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 11 at 04:57 AM
Update: Giants plane unable to land @ MIN/SP airport due to blizzard conditions. Will have to land in Kansas City. Don't you just love December football?
Posted by Adam Bjork | Dec. 11 at 05:29 AM
The blizzard that has the Giants landing in Kansas City also caused the largest mall in America to close about 2 hours ago on one of the busiest shopping days of the year. According to the weather channel this storm system will be directly over Chicago come 3 pm. Worst blizzard in 20 years!
Posted by GREGORY KANTER | Dec. 11 at 08:54 AM
Got Welker maclin Tolbert holmes pick only 2 have flex option. Kicker Bryant or cundiff weather looks bad in carolina. Also mar cedes Lewis with a broken finger or Dixon to bust out Monday night. Thank you for all your help. You have my utmost respect and thanks.
Posted by Duane Stay | Dec. 11 at 09:48 AM
Since I'm a Minnesotan I can assure everyone that if this storm hits Chicago you better change your starters for the Chicago game.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 10:33 AM
Gregory - maclin is a definite, and I wouldn't use tolbert. I would probably make holmes my #2. On kicker, I'd use cundiff regardless. Since Heap is out I would willingly use Dickson...I thought he looked good in the preseason. Good luck to you.
Posted by GREGORY KANTER | Dec. 11 at 11:10 AM
I am sorry to be a bother but my brother likes Tolbert over holes bc of goal line carries. And he say marcedes Lewis is a beast. Is the weather the deciding factor bc I agree with you.
Posted by Michael Harloff | Dec. 11 at 11:31 AM
Andy, Would love a 2nd opinion here... I currently have E.Bennett as my flex in a yardage+TD league. If the weather is bad enough in CHI, would you suggest switching to any of: S.Greene, M.Thomas, D.Amendola, H.Nicks, or B.Watson. I give a slight edge to Thomas but am wondering if he'll draw Asamougha and fear they'll run MJD early + often. Sincerely, The Lorax
Posted by GREGORY KANTER | Dec. 11 at 02:29 PM
Ivory or Brandon Lloyd. Last question I promise.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 08:07 PM
I like lloyd a little more than ivory, arizona is that bad. Gregory, kc has a decent run D and mathews is healthy, just don't see tolbert as a safe bet for more than 10 carries. Lewis a better player (dunno about "beast") but houston has a much worse d. Lots of running in jax. I don't like thomas with sims-walker back, michael. Ian likes watson a lot this week, and given your options I might lean that way too. Evan moore definitely out.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 11 at 09:54 PM
weather.com has given the NE-CHI game a GWI of 1. An article on the site compared the conditions to a December, 2008 NE-BUF game where the wind gusts were so high that the goal posts were shaking (I remember it well). Doesn't sound good. Anybody in Chicagoland have an update on the conditions? Any chance of improvement by game time? Thanks
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Dec. 11 at 10:11 PM
Update on NYG-MIN: Metrodome roof collapsed. Game may not be played at all.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 11 at 11:50 PM
The game will be played somewhere, no later than Tuesday; it's too important to the NFL...they can't just play it in the middle of a week or Week 18. Personally though I'm benching anybody I have (except Adrian Peterson and I suppose Ahmad Bradshaw if I had him), because it might end up being played at an outdoor site and would certainly feature more running than passing. I'm using Jon Kitna and Matt Hasselbeck in a couple of leagues rather than Eli Manning and Carson Palmer (apparently likely to snow in Pittsburgh). I would no longer want to use any Giants receiver, probably no Vikings either.
Posted by GREGORY KANTER | Dec. 12 at 12:32 AM
Andy I just want to thank you for all your insight. Your help has propelled me to the playoffs. On the weather front which players will be most affected. Is forte still a 1. Or do want to stay away from this game altogether. For anyone reading this Andy is a great lifeline and deserves props for answering all these impossible questions. Hope I'm writing to you next week in the semi-finals.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 12 at 01:35 AM
Gregory, I wouldn't be worried about starting Forte
Posted by David Leonard | Dec. 12 at 02:42 AM
Nice call on Ryan Torain, Andy. Grrrr.... I benched him after reading that.