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Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

Bruce Taylor, my editor here at the Index, said he wanted something very soon. Changes to the website, something quick to test it out, even just a few paragraphs ...

So blame Bruce if you prefer my usual blathering to this shorter blast. I’m the help. I does what they says.

And with that: Welcome to our yearly rundown of the national challenge contests. Lots of weeks left until the season starts, but we have lots to cover, so we’re breaking the huddle early – with the quarterbacks.

In the interest of brevity, this week I’m focusing on Roto-style games that count passing average (i.e., yards per attempt) as a category. CDM’s Football Challenge is the standard here; I’ve already entered three (identical) teams. And why does focusing on games like the F.C. keep things brief?

It’s like this: For the most part these games count eight categories total: (1) passing yards; (2) passing average; (3) rushing yards; (4) rushing average; (5) receiving yards; (6) receiving average; (7) total scoring, with passing TDs counted as 3 points and almost every other scoring play (including kicker scoring but not safeties) counted the way it counts on the scoreboard; and (8) kicker scoring. Account for the fact that the league leaders throw 30+ TD passes but (most years, anyway) score more like 15 rushing or receiving TDs and this means that, per man, quarterbacks contribute almost exactly as much to your team’s overall numbers as running backs or receivers. But you generally get half as many of them: three starters at QB, six each at RB and WR.

So you can’t take many chances behind center, particularly not early in the year. Before some backup has swiped a job and caught fire, the stakes are too high to stray far from the ranks of the league’s top product endorsers.

Bottom line: Forget that there are 32 starting quarterbacks. From the sure-to-shift vantage point of early July, these are the only guys I’m considering for my Roto rosters to start the season (Football Challenge salaries – in 000s – in parentheses):

Peyton Manning, IND ($4100) Always nice when you can use the expression “you get what you pay for” with reference to the top of a price range instead of the bottom. Manning – no need for a first name; his brother will not appear below – is the big-ticket item I’m most likely to buy at the start of ’07. The receiving corps looks marginally better minus ever-gimpy Brandon Stokley and plus the comparably overachieving Anthony Gonzalez. The running game may have gained in star power when the team decided to full-time Joseph Addai, but Dominic Rhodes was clearly better than the remaining backups. And the defense, especially behind the line, is measurably worse now than on Super Bowl Sunday. Manning’s floor is 30 TDs and about 8.0 yds/att – we know that from the last two seasons – but now he’ll need 31+ points to win lots of weeks. He’ll have to get those the old-fashioned way ... which is to say, not by feeding Addai.

Drew Brees, NO ($3680) Listed, but maybe he shouldn’t be. I see Reggie Bush getting more of his work on the ground this year, which will actually help Brees’ average but will ding his yards for sure. Especially if the receivers take a collective step backward, which I count as a near certainty. Maybe Joe Horn’s star has been dimming for two years now. They’re still worse without him. Marques Colston’s superb rookie effort notwithstanding, they went from one dimming star to a lesser constellation.

Carson Palmer, CIN ($3250) He’s on my teams and on my board as something like 9-to-5 to have a better year statistically than Manning does. No way to say no.

Tom Brady, NE ($3180) The only sane way to cash in on the wide receiver additions to the Belichick Republic is by owning Brady. If the last few years are any indication, not even Randy Moss can have the ball often enough to be worth owning in this system. But Brady’s been piling up numbers with inferior receivers for half a decade now. There’s only one thing giving me pause: I like Larry Maroney better than Joe Addai, and I like the Pats’ D much better than the Colts’. Brady won’t need nearly as many hero Sundays as Manning will, which means the difference in their numbers could well exceed the difference in their salaries. Flip a coin; for now it comes up Manning.

Jon Kitna, DET ($2150) Note the big drop in salary; from Brady down to Kitna is a kind of morass, guys who are too long in the tooth (Trent Green, Brett Favre) or too short in the brain (Ben Roethlisberger – and I’m going solely by the helmet dodging there; I actually like Big Ben and think he’s due for a breakout, just not quite enough of one – Tony Romo, Mike Vick). But Kitna is automatic, more so even than Palmer. And that was true before they drafted Calvin Johnson. Until you see hard evidence to the contrary, you own Mike Martz’ quarterback without regard to who (you think) he is or what he’s done before.

Philip Rivers, SD ($2050) The aptest comparisons are the ones to Troy Aikman. Rivers is highly likely to appear in Pro Bowls and win Super Bowls – I’ll even count him as a Hall of Fame possibility – but he’s not a numbers guy now and may never become one. As such he’s well down this list, next to last on it (were I ranking by preference and not $$$) for the time being. Note, though: It’s a short list.

Vince Young, TEN ($1840) You know those so-easy-a-caveman-can-do-it commercials for Geico? There’s a pretty good chance Vince Young doesn’t understand them. I doubt I’m telling you anything you didn’t know (and V.Y. does throw a better ball than the Dog Fightin’ Man ever dreamed of), but the read-and-react stuff is a little lacking here. To me that means you leave him off of your roster to start. I always ran into trouble trying to spot-start Vick to boost my rushing average – one thing I always knew was that if I started him he’d end the game with three kneel-downs – but it can be done. In theory. Just make sure you get a headstart in the passing stats first, and then run at ... let’s see here ... maybe at Houston 10/21, vs. Oakland 10/28?

Matt Leinart, ARZ ($1670) Right now I think probably not; when I said Rivers was next to last here I meant he was ahead of Leinart. But that could change in a hurry. First, and most obviously, I have no real feel for how Ken Whisenhunt (The Whisenator?) will run his team. This developing consensus that the line will be much-improved cuts both ways: That’s no Emmitt Smith dancing into the sunset in the backfield; Edge James is just now 28 years old, 29 come Kickoff Weekend. But if Whisenhunt has them gunning and Leinart looks very comfortable say around the third week of the preseason, sure, I can see carrying him ...

Jay Cutler, DEN ($1560) ... just not ahead of Cutler. Not that he looked great during a half-cup of coffee late in 2006. It’s just that I trust Mike Shanahan, who (a) traded up to draft him, (b) played him as a rookie despite reasonable playoff chances, and (c) made no real run at backing him up with a dependable veteran in ’07. Shanahan is among the most firmly-entrenched head coaches, of course, so he need not fear for his job ... but on paper these Broncos would appear to have at least a small chance at real contention. It means something when a team like that puts its eggs in one basket. San Diego let Drew Brees walk for Philip Rivers. Now Denver casts its lot with Cutler. Besides, 80% of all Football Challenge teams will own him, so you don’t lose ground even if he stinks. My kinda flyer.

And that’s it, the whole list. Name anyone else and I’ll shoot him down quick-snap, as Mike Skinner says:

Marc Bulger? Offense transitioning to run-run-run first.

Donovan McNabb? Never healthy.

Matt Hasselbeck? Salary always a little higher than the numbers warrant.

Jeff Garcia as a veteran cheapo?

I think we’re done here.

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