24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Jan. 21 at 10:06 PM
The Saints were last year's feel-good story, and I was rooting for the Vikings for the past couple of seasons. But I'm far happier than I expected that both conference championship games will be played outside, and that one features the league's oldest rivalry and the other features two teams who at least have some old-school elements. It's great to see.
So who will win? Everyone has opinions, but by far the popular vote is going to Green Bay versus Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl. I'm not so sure I agree, so let's get to it....
Green Bay at Chicago: I go back and forth on this one. Yes, it's easier to have faith in Aaron Rodgers than Jay Cutler. Personnel-wise, I also like the Green Bay defense better, particularly in the secondary, and particularly with safety Chris Harris banged-up for Chicago. (That one worries me.) But I feel compelled to stick with my first thought, which was being stunned that the Packers opened as a field goal favorite at Chicago -- and the line continued to move in their favor. Why? Because they crushed an overrated Atlanta team? Big whoop. The teams split during the year. The Bears defense did a nice job on Green Bay's offense in both games. They're at home. My gut tells me that will be enough.
I will say this about the spread: I think if the game is close, Chicago will win; if it's lopsided, it will be because Cutler has a meltdown and the Packers win. So if you think Green Bay will win, go ahead and give the points. I'm not so sure. Fantasy-wise, I like Matt Forte and Greg Olsen and, yes, Jay Cutler in this game. I like Johnny Knox, and since Green Bay has some special teams problems and the Bears have great special teams, I like the Chicago D/ST. For Green Bay, I'll take Rodgers, Donald Driver, and yes, the Green Bay D. And I'll call it Chicago 20, Green Bay 17.
N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh: I'm a little surprised by how staunch the support of the Steelers is in this game. I consider Pittsburgh very fortunate to get by the Ravens last week -- those were mistakes the Ravens made to give up the 21-7 lead, not turnovers Pittsburgh forced. (A fine distinction, I realize.) The Jets won the regular season meeting, and although Pittsburgh was without Troy Polamalu in that game, their defense was fine -- it's not like it struggled or anything. On offense, they didn't have Heath Miller, but he's not a difference-maker. And the Jets are playing better right now than they were then, on both sides of the ball. I see Pittsburgh struggling to move the ball on offense, and the Jets having a special teams advantage.
New York should also struggle to move the ball. They won't run it well, and Pittsburgh can certainly bring some heat on Mark Sanchez. But he can scramble, he can make short throws to LaDainian Tomlinson, and he can be relatively careful with the football. Points will be scored in this game, somehow, and the Jets have as many offensive playmakers as Pittsburgh does. Fantasy-wise, my season-long endorsement of Dustin Keller will return for one more week. Santonio Holmes should come through with a big play. And I just don't like Pittsburgh's offense at all -- nobody, none of the receivers against this Jets secondary that has given up basically one big pass play to a wide receiver in two playoff games. I dunno, there's just something about this Jets team. I can't see them beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady the last two weeks and proceeding to stumble here. I'll go with Jets 17, Steelers 13.
Enjoy the games.
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Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Jan. 22 at 12:12 AM
i say you have them both wrong,rogers has to many weapons,jennings,jones, nelson, driver,quarless,lee,swain,crabtree ect. GB 27 chicago 17 Same with pittsburg,Sanders and Brown will step up when Wallace and ward are covered.Ben is way more experienced than cutler and has better protection.We all know the steelers def! GREENBAY PITTSBURGH SUPERBOWL
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jan. 22 at 12:31 AM
Chicago might be my heart talking, but I really feel pretty good about the Jets this week. I realize I'm in the distinct minority, but its rare both of these games go the way the majority think.
Posted by DAVID STONER | Jan. 22 at 09:54 PM
Well Andy, I don't think you looked at the 1st game at all. Jets had the opening KO returned for a TD. They 4 or 5 punts downed inside the 10, 2 of those inside the the 5. One of those turned into a safety. No Troy, no Miller. We out-gained them severely in yardage and nearly pulled it out at the end. Miller's replacement, Spaeth, knocked down the winning pass. Do you really think all that good stuff will happen again ? Really ? Reaaly?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jan. 22 at 10:41 PM
I watched all of the earlier game. Overrating it, though, is why everyone assumed the Patriots would crush the Jets. Sure New York had some breaks in that one. But they're playing better right now. And if you want to look closely at that game, you see Pittsburgh was fortunate to recover two of their own fumbles, and that more than half of their yardage edge came on that final drive with the Jets in more of a soft defensive front. That game could have gone either way. So could this one.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Jan. 22 at 10:44 PM
Andy: My question in the comments section of Ian's earlier column was not whether PIT D was the best defense out of the four to buy as Ian had opined (I firmly believe it is), but whether it pays to buy a defense as opposed to a WR or TE from the Steelers. Since you do not think that the Steelers will win the game (I respectfully disagree), I doubt you would advise me to buy any Steelers under a scoring system where an addl. 3 points get added to a players score for a team victory. Maybe I'll just wait until before the Super Bowl to use the three buys I have left since I also do not have a great feel for either of the games today.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jan. 23 at 12:19 AM
I think it's reasonable to say the steelers are the likeliest of the four teams to win. But I thought the saints and patriots were the likeliest to win the first two playoff weeks, so....
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Jan. 23 at 01:17 AM
Agreed. In a year where both one seeds were soundly shown the door in their first game and it's quite likely that two 6 seeds will play in the Super Bowl, who knows what might happen today. Your advice to just enjoy the games is probably the best way to go.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jan. 23 at 10:51 AM
And.....I'm 0 for 2.
Posted by BEN HOGEVOLL | Jan. 24 at 12:30 AM
You may be o-2 for yesterday but you also had the steelers beat by the ravens last week.Do you want to know who the superbowl winner will be?I tell you anyway pittsburgh steelers. 27- 24