24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Feb. 04 at 09:19 PM
Super Bowl tomorrow, and the general consensus is that it should be a classic. Maybe that's a bad thing, as a lot of the best games have been ones where one team was favored by double-digits -- Giants-Bills, Packers-Broncos and Patriots-Rams spring to mind.
About all I can say for myself in this year's playoffs -- and I picked both conference championship games wrong -- is that at the very start I said the NFC's Super Bowl representative might come out of the Packers-Eagles game. I thought those were the conference's two best teams, even though I felt (hoped?) the Bears would beat Green Bay last week. I definitely didn't think the Steelers would make it back to the Super Bowl. So take my prediction for what it's worth; I haven't made many great calls over the past month.
Quarterbacks: Roethlisberger has the experience and playmaking edge; we've seen him do it in enough playoff games to know he will hang in there and make big plays. But Rodgers has the better matchup -- more vulnerable secondary -- and is more apt to take off and run for 10 yards on third and 8. I think both guys will be pretty good and this could be a fairly high-scoring game. The over-under, last I checked, was 45, and I'd take the over.
Running backs: Rashard Mendenhall was better than expected against the Jets; he should be pretty good again this week. Green Bay's defense looked vulnerable to Michael Turner early in that game, before things got out of hand. They haven't really faced a lot of top running backs this season. I think he could be OK here. James Starks won't do anything against the Steelers, obviously.
Wide receivers: Big edge to Green Bay. I like Mike Wallace, and Hines Ward is a tough guy, but Greg Jennings is as talented as Wallace and has the softer matchup, and Donald Driver, banged-up and all, should bring his best game after finally getting to a Super Bowl. I like Green Bay's three and four guys better than Pittsburgh's, too.
Tight ends: Green Bay will use warm bodies at the position who might catch a short touchdown flip around the goal line. Pittsburgh has Heath Miller, who could be very good in this matchup. I thought the Packers had some trouble against tight ends this year, but that didn't happen against Chicago with Greg Olsen. Still, I like Miller to have a good game.
Kickers: I don't trust either of these guys in the clutch. Shaun Suisham has been deservedly cut multiple times. Mason Crosby hangs around because of his leg strength, not his accuracy. I guess I'd be more confident in Crosby lining up a game-winner if it comes down to that (which it might).
Defenses: Two great pass rushes, two playmaking secondaries. Steelers have the better run defense and the more dynamic safety, and the better overall linebacking corps; Packers have the more dynamic pass rusher and opportunistic cornerback tandem. Both quarterbacks are plenty capable of frustrating these defenses, but Roethlisberger and the Steelers have been doing this for so long that I have to give them the edge.
Prediction: I see Green Bay getting off to a fast start; Rodgers and his receiving corps is better than what the Steelers have seen in a while. But the Steelers will hang around and hang around, and seem like a better bet to come up with a big defensive play -- and some big offensive plays late. I will join the masses in predicting a great game, perhaps decided on a late field goal. I'm going slightly higher-scoring than my Ask the Experts prediction a week and a half ago, but with the same outcome:
Pittsburgh 27, Green Bay 24.
- Comments [4]
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Feb. 05 at 12:18 AM
Andy: I'm considering entering a contest where you start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 3 IDP's. Scoring is 6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 20 rush/rec yds, 1 pt per 50 pass yds, 3 pts per FG, 1 pt per XP and 1 pt per tackle for defensive players. What players do you like under this format? Sounds like you like GB to post slightly better passing numbers and PIT to be quite a bit more effective running the ball. I think this contest will come down to who picks the IDP's with the most tackles. Since I have never played in leagues that include IDP's and I greatly trust your expertise in evaluating fantasy defenses, I would appreciate your opinion on which defensive players you feel will be the leading tacklers in the game. Thanks much.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Feb. 05 at 03:12 AM
Do IDPs only get points for tackles? No sacks, interceptions, etc.? If that's the case, I wouldn't stray too far from the regular- and post-season statistics to this point. If you ranked players strictly in terms of postseason tackles (adjusting for the fact Green Bay has played one more game than Pittsburgh), the top 10 IDPs would be Lawrence Timmons, James Harrison, Desmond Bishop, James Farrior, Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, Charlie Peprah, A.J. Hawk, Sam Shields and Ryan Clark. The inside linebackers (Timmons, Bishop, Farrior and Hawk) should be the top 4 tacklers. When you start scoring other stats, Harrison and Matthews move up -- better possibility of sacks, turnovers, defensive touchdowns. As for the other lineup choices, Ian's article from yesterday has some pretty detailed rankings. I'd probably go with a lineup of something like Rodgers (since GB won't run it at all), Mendenhall, I guess Starks, Jennings-Wallace-Driver, Miller, Suisham, with an emphasis on linebackers at IDP, and Woodson the defensive back to consider first. Good luck.
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Feb. 05 at 10:44 PM
Thanks Andy as always, for your help. Yes, IDPs only get points for tackles. I agree with the starting 8 for the most part, but I'm worried about Driver's health. I know it's hard to pick a 3rd WR from two teams that use so many multiple receiver sets and I realize that nobody is really healthy at this time of year, but I think it makes sense to pick someone who did not miss the final two practices before the game (I know he participated in the walkthrough yesterday). Assuming that Taylor covers Jennings, I think GB receivers matched up against McFadden and Gay have a real advantage, so I may have to go with JJ or Nelson.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Feb. 05 at 10:50 PM
Peter - given the non-PPR scoring, and the point per 20 receiving yards, and the fact that Jones seems more likely to score than Driver, I agree that he should get an edge over Driver.