Fantasy News
In placing players on our draft board, part of the process involves the forecast for the actual team. We decide on the passing yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns, and then the individual forecasts flow from those numbers. Randy Moss is projected to catch 40 percent of New England's touchdown passes, for example.
The Patriots set the all-time scoring record last year, so I took an extra close look at them. That's definitely a team that you want to get right.
Below are a few supporting numbers that you might find use. The first chart shows how other teams that have thrown 40-plus touchdowns have fared in their followup seasons. Almost all have suffered sharp statistical drops.
The second chart shows passing yards. The 10 teams that (like New England) averaged over 300 passing yards. The differences aren't nearly as pronounced here. Half of the teams went over 300 yards again the following year. The other half finished between 253 and 280. Average: 290 yards per game.
There's also a third chart that isn't listed. It shows the 16 teams that have averaged over 30 points per game (and by points, I mean actual real-life NFL points). In that one, only three teams went over 30 points again. On average, those 16 teams fell by 6 points per game.
These are just numbers, of course. They don't guarantee anything. Some of those teams were affected by injuries, holdouts, retirements and new offensive systems. The Patriots have all of their key offensive guys back, and they've got a very solid offensive line to keep Tom Brady from getting hit too often.
TEAMS FINISHING WITH 40+ TD PASSES IN 1978-2007
(how they fared the following season)
TD passes
37 Rams (2000) 42 TD passes in 1999
35 San Francisco (1988) 44 TD passes in 1987
32 Vikings (1999) 41 TD passes in 1998
31 Colts (2005) 51 TD passes in 2004
31 Dolphins (1985) 49 TD passes in 1984
29 Dolphins (1987) 46 TD passes in 1986
14 San Francisco (1999) 41 TD passes in 1998
TEAMS AVERAGING 300+ PASSING YARDS IN 1978-2007
(how they fared the following season)
Yards Per Game
335 Chargers (1982) 305 YPG in 1981
323 Chargers (1985) 308 YPG in 1984
308 Chargers (1984) 306 YPG in 1983
306 Rams (2001) 343 YPG in 2000
300 Oilers (1991) 317 YPG in 1990
280 Rams (2002) 306 YPG in 2001
267 Dolphins (1985) 322 YPG in 1984
265 Dolphins (1987) 306 YPG in 1986
264 Oilers (1992) 300 YPG in 1991a
253 Chargers (1986) 323 YPG in 1985
--Ian Allan
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