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Andy Richardson

If you’re like most people, it’s not enough to have one fantasy league -- you have two. Or five. This sometimes causes problems on draft day, since unless the scoring systems are radically different from league to league, you have only one draft board, and often your turn to pick will come up and the same players will be sitting there.

When this happens -- when you’re in the middle rounds, or if you’ve drawn the same draft position in two drafts -- you can go one of two ways. Take the same players again, or mix things up a bit. Most owners seem to favor mixing things up a bit, which is why I’m here to say: Don’t. Or at the very least, consider that by going off your draft board just to avoid putting all your eggs in one basket, you risk committing the cardinal sin in fantasy football, which is beating yourself.

Mix it up, or stick to your board? Different situations call for different approaches. A few examples:

1. The No. 1 pick. It can be hard to land the top pick in your league -- or undesirable, if you had to finish last a year ago to do it. But sometimes things happen in bunches, which is why you might find yourself with the top pick in more than one league. The question is, do you take consensus No. 1 LaDainian Tomlinson both times, or opt for the younger, lower-mileage franchise back Steven Jackson in one of them?

A year ago I had a similar dilemma, with Larry Johnson ranked No. 1 on my board, Tomlinson 2nd, and Shaun Alexander a distant 3rd, regardless of format. I worried about Alexander’s production coming off a record-setting season and fat new contract, and my fears were justified. However, after drawing the top spot in one league, and taking Johnson, I then drew the No. 2 slot in another, and when Tomlinson went No. 1, I elected not to take LJ a second time. I grudgingly took Alexander, who struggled, got hurt, and only salvaged his season with a late run after mine was long since over.

Lesson learned: I should have taken LJ twice. If you’ve got one guy clearly ahead of the next player, you take him both times. Fast-forward to this year, where I personally have LT at No. 1 and Jackson just a tick behind at 1A. None of the worries I had about Alexander a year ago apply to Jackson, so if I draw the top spot twice I’ll probably mix it up. And if I draw the 2nd spot twice, I’ll take Jackson, and Jackson, easily. If You’ve got Tomlinson well ahead of Jackson, stick with it -- as many times as you’re fortunate enough to have the opportunity.

2. Your No. 2 and 3 running backs. The running-back-by-committee situations around the league make very few running backs outside the top 12 or so anything close to sure things. It was the same last year, where Keeping up with the Joneses -- Thomas, Julius, Kevin -- was next to impossible, with each being ranked within a few picks of each other on most boards. This year, which Williams will be better: DeAngelo or Cadillac? Which runner from the top of 2005’s NFL draft, Cedric Benson or Ronnie Brown? The questions don’t get any easier a round or two later: Vernand Morency or Brandon Jackson? Kevin Jones or Tatum Bell? LaMont Jordan or Dominic Rhodes?

These are situations where mixing it up is not only a good idea, it’s almost required. Putting all your eggs in one basket with Tomlinson is a whole lot different than doing so with Julius Jones, or as some did last year with Mike Bell. Draft the same guy over and over to fill this slot and you’re as likely to get rotten eggs as an omelet. Don’t be shy about taking Morency one time and Jackson the next (assuming your draft is too early to be sure who the likely starter is). And as an aside, if you’re that unsure who the starter is, plan to take several other running backs just in case … or opt for comparative sure things at another position, and hope you can find gold with late-rounders like Sammy Morris.

3. Your starting quarterback. In a way, ranking quarterbacks is tricky, because it’s not just how to rank them, but when it’s OK to take them. This varies more from draft to draft than the other key positions -- even a top guy like Peyton Manning can go anywhere from 5th to 20th, or later, depending on the league.

But with that said, ranking quarterbacks has fewer intangibles than the other positions do. Very few of them enter training camp fighting for their starting job. They don’t get hurt as often as running backs, and their stats aren’t as erratic as most wide receivers’ numbers. And the league has yet to institute a quarterback by committee approach, although I guess anything is possible. Remember Broncos coach Dan Reeves alternating series between Tommy Maddox and Shawn Moore briefly in the early ‘90s, when John Elway was hurt? Reeves, of course, was fired at the end of the season.

As hard as it is to rank running backs, then, it’s comparatively easy to rank quarterbacks. Which is why your rankings should be relatively stable and you will end up with the same quarterback more than once, only “mixing it up” when they go earlier or later than expected (likely) or other players fall forcing you to go quarterback later (equally likely). If you drop down and take Drew Brees ahead of Carson Palmer just because you’ve got Palmer in another league, you’ll probably regret it. Like me and Shaun Alexander a year ago.

Ralph Waldo Emerson said “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds,” and although he wasn’t talking about fantasy football, you get the idea he’d have been all over the map on draft day, taking Tomlinson in one league, Steven Jackson in another, and Larry Johnson in a third, were he lucky enough to draw the top pick in each.

That may be fine for some people, but I learned my lesson a year ago. It’s one thing to mix it up with players you rank equally. It’s another to do so just for the sake of doing so. If you’re going to take B before A, you’d better be doing it because you’ve got them ranked almost equally on your draft board -- not because you’re trying to outsmart the law of averages. Because ultimately you’ll only be outsmarting, and beating, yourself.

Send Andy an email at andy@fantasyindex.com.

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