Ian Allan
Teams are coming out against the proposed changes to the kickoff rules, and I’m not surprised. It dramatically changes a portion of the game, which would greatly benefit teams that struggle in that area.
In case you missed it, the NFL is considering radically re-working kickoffs. They could be moved to the 35-yard line and wedges could be outlawed completely. Both changes would make it much harder to return those kicks for touchdowns. So no surprise that the Bears (with Devin Hester) and New England (where Bill Belichick always puts together good kick return units) have already chimed in against the new rules.
Kickoffs, recall, used to be at the 35. They were moved back to the 30 in 1994. So we have some indication of what kind of impact to expect from this kind of move.
In the 1992 and 1993 seasons, the entire league combined scored on only 10 kickoff returns. There were 6 in 1992 and 4 in 1993.
In the last two years, on the other hand, there have been 41 touchdowns scored on kickoff returns (18 in 2009 and 23 last year). So almost four times as many of those touchdowns (when you account for there being only 28 teams in the early ‘90s).
Some of the difference can be accounted for in simply the number of returns. With lots of touchbacks, teams averaged fewer than 50 kickoff returns in those final two years with the ball at the 35. That’s 22 fewer than what we’ve seen the last two years. For reasons I can’t explain, teams were also more effective covering kicks back then (19.4 on average, 3 yards less than what teams have averaged the last two years).
If this rule goes through, I think you’ll see a big drop in touchdowns on kickoff returns. Probably about a third as many, in my opinion. Back in the 1992-1993 seasons, there was a 2 percent chance you would see a kickoff return touchdown in any given game. The last two years, that figure has jumped to 8 percent.
This kickoff proposal will be soften by a couple of additional rules alterations. Touchbacks would be spotted at the 25. I think that will encourage some teams to avoid touchbacks, figuring that a high kickoff landing at the 5 will give them a better chance to maybe stop the return inside the 20. Also, the kicking won’t be allowed to line up inside its own 30 – giving just kickers and coverage guys only a 5-yard run (slowing them down and maybe taking just a little distance off the kick).
But these rules definitely would be a strike against the elite kick returners. My expectation is that the teams that tend to excel in that area will vote against the proposal. To pass, the rule needs a 75 percent majority, so if nine teams want to leave the rules as is, they will not be changed. I don’t think there’s any way that these new rules will be adopted as they are drawn up right now.
—Ian Allan
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