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Looking at red zone effectiveness

Posted Jul. 03 at 09:10 AM

Do you know who had the best offense in the red zone last year? It might surprise you. It was not an offense directed by a franchise quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick or Drew Brees.

No, it was whichever team was playing against the Eagles.

Teams playing against Philadelphia, remarkably, scored touchdowns on 33 of 43 possessions inside the red zone. As well as Vick played last year, the quarterbacks going against him were even better (at least in that part of the field).

Another defense – Kansas City – was also worse than any other offense’s best. It allowed touchdowns on 26 of 37 possessions.

The following chart shows a mixture of offenses and defenses, and they’re ranked slightly differently than you might expect. Normally, you see percentage figures on this kind of deal – teams scoring touchdowns on 70 percent of their possessions or whatever.

I’m presenting it in points – average points per drive. If a team allowed a touchdown on every possession in the red zone, that would be 7.0 points, on average (I’m just awarding the PAT and leaving out 2-point conversions). So the scores tend to range from 3.0 (if you kicked a field goal every possession) to 7.0.

OFFENSES/DEFENSES AVERAGING 5 PTS PER RED ZONE POSSESSION
  No   TD   FG   Pts   
   43   33    9    6.0   Philadelphia defense
   37   26   10   5.7   Kansas City defense
   56   38   16   5.6   Indianapolis offense
   59   40   13   5.4   Houston defense
   53   33   18   5.4   Houston offense
   53   35   12   5.3   Dallas defense
   45   29   11   5.2   Detroit offense
   67   42   19   5.2   New England offense
   54   33   15   5.1   Buffalo defense
   43   27   11   5.1   San Diego defense
   52   32   14   5.1   Denver defense
   58   35   16   5.1   Atlanta offense
   46   29   10   5.1   Jacksonville offense
   43   25   13   5.0   Tennessee offense

—Ian Allan


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