Ian Allan
Let me dip back into Adrian Peterson, since he is an important player.
FIRST TEN GAMES
184 carries, 1,197 yards, 11 TDs
He averaged 6.5 yards per attempt in these games.
FINAL FOUR GAMES
54 carries, 144 yards, 2 TDs
He averaged only 2.7 yards per attempt in these games.
How much of the dropoff do we attribute to the knee injury that sidelined him for two weeks in November? He probably wasn’t quite his usual explosive self, but he was healthy enough that he was on the field. And the knee didn’t seem to bother him in week 11, when he ran for 116 yards and 2 TDs against Detroit.
More realistically, Peterson’s production was held down by defenses doing a better job of keying on him. How else to explain him running for 3 yards on 14 attempts at San Francisco? That’s something he’ll see more of in 2008, no doubt about that. Every defense the Vikings play will try to make Tarvaris Jackson beat them. So I don’t think it’s realistic to hope for Peterson to average 6 yards per carry. At least some defenses are going to do a good job of containing him down.
Another big factor with Peterson, when comparing him against the other top running backs, is his lack of production as a receiver. He’s dangerous as a receiver, no doubt. He scored on a 60-yard catch-and-run in his first game as a pro. But he’s not very good in pass protection, so the Vikings pulled him on most passing downs last year. He caught only 11 passes in his final 11 games last year. If he’s not used more in that capacity this year – maybe he’ll be better on blitz pickups, we’ll see – then it will be a major strike against him when he’s compared to LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook.
Finally, durability. A lot of Peterson’s carries are virtual trainwrecks. He runs high, and he takes a lot of punishment. So he’s far more likely to miss a bunch of games than Tomlinson, Jackson or Westbrook.
Bottom line: fantasy leaguers are left with a tough choice at the top of their draft boards. Do they go with the high-risk Peterson, who has more big-play potential than anyone and is the back most likely to run for 2,000 yards? Or do they go with the safer route, selecting Tomlinson, Jackson or Westbrook?
—Ian Allan
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