Viva Murillo!
In week 15 last year, Carson Palmer faced the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football. He entered the game with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the year, and those numbers didn't change after the game. Palmer, in what was likely a playoff game in most leagues, threw for 176 yards in his worst statistical performance since week 1.
Carson Palmer, I grant you amnesty.
That same week, Larry Johnson faced the San Diego Chargers and failed to reach 100 yards rushing for the only time in December. It was one of just two games all year where Johnson didn't get 100 yards or a touchdown.
Larry Johnson, I grant you amnesty.
Joey Galloway had an up-and-down season, but his owners were pretty down in week 16 (Super Bowl week for many leagues) when he came up with just two catches for 34 yards--in a victory against Cleveland.
Joey, you get amnesty, too.
If you owned those guys last year and they burned you, let it go. If your running back got injured, let bygones be bygones. If you passed up on Tomlinson for...well, anybody, it's time to move on.
The worst thing you can do is enter 2007 still fighting battles from 2006. You can't punish a player who hurt your team. They don't know anything about your fantasy team and wouldn't care if they did. In any case, you won't help your cause by ignoring talented players at your draft or auction because of a year-old chip on your shoulder.
Fantasy football is a game of statistics and trends. Unfortunately, there aren't any new statistics and we have very few trends to follow since the end of last season. We have free agency, a draft and a lot of spin. That's it. The decisions you make now will be heavily dependent on your experiences last year or your emotional connection to a player.
I suggest you start your preparations for the coming year by granting amnesty to every player who played poorly, cost you a title, stopped playing hard or generally annoyed you for whatever reason.
On the other side of the coin, don't give too much credit to the guys who defeated you last year, either. If you find yourself mentally replaying the games that beat you down--Maurice Jones-Drew running for 131 yards, two scores and catching six passes in your fantasy Super Bowl, or Ron Dayne trampling the Colts for 153 yards and two scores in week 16--you need to let that go, too. Your rankings shouldn't give additional weight to guys who stopped your playoff run or gave someone else a championship. That's adding present insult to past injury. Just grant them all amnesty and start fresh.
You're not going to have your final cheat sheet ready tomorrow, but you will start forming the foundations of your draft strategy in the coming weeks. Right now, the best you can do is to avoid the common pitfalls that derail a good plan before it ever gets developed. Think about the guys that you remember from last year--the catches, the fumbles, the scores and the spitting--and remove that emotional aspect from your thoughts. Just look at them as potential prospects for your team based on what they can do for you this year, and what liabilities they have this year. Don't remember the bad times when it's draft time, or you're likely to repeat them.
Michael Murillo is trying really hard not to punish Steve Smith for catching a total of five passes for 56 yards (with no scores) in weeks 15 and 16 last year. You can reach him at vivamurillo@hotmail.com.
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