Andy Richardson
If there were any benefits to the lockout -- and maybe there weren't -- one is probably that our annual experts draft and auction happened in August (the last two nights, in fact) rather than May. And so did the experts drafts I'm in, including one occurring right now.
That latter draft, sponsored by JunkyardJake.com, can be followed along with at this link right here. We're just three rounds into the extended-format draft. It's a PPR league with 6-point TD passes, yet quarterbacks don't go as early as our numbers say they should. Picking 4th, I started off with Jamaal Charles; grabbed Hakeem Nicks in the second, and with Drew Brees still on the board in the 3rd, happily grabbed him. Pretty good top-of-the-lineup guys, I think.
The Experts Draft and Auction are supplements to the electronic magazine; if you purchased that (available from this very site), you will also receive them and the Experts Poll. It's a plus to have these things conducted in August rather than May, I guess, although there are still many questions -- lots of running back and quarterback situations up in the air, very little information to go on with the rookies. Just as is the case in May.
Among the tidbits I've found interesting in the results thus far:
People are afraid of Chris Johnson and Peyton Manning. I myself passed on Johnson at No. 4, but I wouldn't have let him fall to No. 8, as he did in the linked draft. That thing is going to get resolved. I think. As for Manning, I'm guilty of avoiding him myself, but I think that's because there are enough other top options. I'm not really worried about him missing any games or his play suffering too greatly.
Nobody knows what to do with the Washington runners. Isn't Mike Shanahan great? Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain and Roy Helu have all taken turns being the most coveted running back in drafts I've seen or been in. Naturally this means Evan Royster is the one who should be selected.
Surprisingly little interest in potential difference-maker fantasy quarterbacks. Cam Newton and especially Tim Tebow are poor bets to start 16 games; certainly Tebow is no lock to start any. But both of these guys, if they are in the lineup, will be valuable fantasy commodities. Weird to me that they're going so late, or so cheaply, in these drafts and auctions.
I'll update the above-linked draft every so often, and you'll get to see the results of the Index draft and auction by the end of the week. Feel free to weigh in with what you view as the biggest surprises -- reaches, steals, whatever -- when you've had a chance to review them.
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Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Aug. 15 at 11:13 PM
I'm in a 14 team 30 round (ten hour time limit for each pick) league. WE start 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1FLEX(RB,WR,TE)1K, 1DST. The computer picks your best players. I picked Tebow with the second pick in round 16, figuring that he had a huge upside. And, judging by a few of the picks that came off of the board since your Monday update, at least a couple other players subscribe to FI.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 16 at 04:27 AM
Hoped to get Blount at 4.09, but to my mild surprise he went two picks before. Settled for Shonn Greene. There's nothing wrong with Greene, but I can't shake the memory of him getting a quick hook a year ago after fumbling in the opener. But two of the three guys who would pick twice before my next pick had only one running back in the first three rounds, so I knew he and several other runners would have been gone in the next six picks.
Posted by Richard Weber | Aug. 16 at 08:01 AM
Andy, it's "weird" to you that Newton is "going so late, or so cheaply"? Why? He's a rookie QB (which is already a strike against him) who couldn't participate in any offseason workouts. He's also a one-year college starter who played in an offense that was nowhere near pro-style. On top of that, some fantasy owners don't even draft a backup QB, preferring to stock up on RB/WR depth.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 16 at 08:23 AM
It's weird to me because of the nature of fantasy leagues which so handsomely reward quarterback rushing production. A guy who puts up well below-average passing numbers will still be a great fantasy player by rushing for 60 yards and a TD. The vast upside is greater than most of the players being selected a round earlier than him. In the Index experts draft, Newton was a 14th-round selection. Guys selected ahead of him (I'm just glancing at it) include Donald Brown, Anthony Dixon, Jason Snelling, that kind of player. Realistically, none of those guys will do much this year to help fantasy teams. Newton may not either, but his odds seem better to me, just because of the nature of scoring in most leagues. I just think the upside potential seems higher than where he's being selected, even if (as you say) he's just a rookie QB who will likely struggle running an offense.
Posted by Richard Weber | Aug. 16 at 08:30 AM
Newton might not even start. And we're almost positive that Tebow won't. So why would we draft them now? Even if both of them end up starting, they're not QB1 material. They're only starting for our fantasy team when our QB1 isn't. If either one of them appears to be making headway, we can always jump on them on the waiver wire.
Posted by BILL REHOR | Aug. 16 at 08:44 AM
Richard, I think you're misunderstanding what Andy is talking about here. These drafts/auctions he's doing now are "best ball, draft-and-hold" leagues - there is no waiver wire. So obviously you can't "jump on them" later. Further, in Best Ball you get to start them whenever they have a big game, and both those guys will likely have a few over the course of the year. They're not guys I have any interest in in a normal league, but I completely agree with him that they have legit value in this format.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 16 at 09:26 AM
Yeah, Richard, I probably should have mentioned these are no-transaction leagues; no waiver adds all season. As for whether Newton will start or not, I don't think it should take too long for Clausen to be in and out of the lineup.