Ask the Experts

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:

Have the poor seasons by some contract-year players caused you to consider avoiding such players in the future?

CORY BONINI

It is a case-by-case situation for me. I don't like to ever simply write off a player, because everyone has value at the right price. The poster boy for this year has to be Chris Johnson, but a deeper look prior to the start of the season would have led owners to the conclusion that Chris Palmer's offense is so different than what Johnson had previously found success in with the Titans that CJ2K could struggle. Palmer's system calls for the running back to make a read on the fly, whereas Johnson was used to rushing to a predetermined hole. That should have been a red flag for owners during the fantasy draft season, but the holdout didn't help his cause any.

Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Now 100 percent free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com has provided content to USA Today, Yahoo! Sports, and FOXSports.com among many other organizations.

MIKE NAZAREK

I think it depends upon the situation. Certainly, in the first few rounds, I'd try to avoid players with contract situations like Chris Johnson or DeSean Jackson and play it safe with guys like LeSean McCoy and Mike Wallace. But if they slide several rounds in my draft, it would be tough to keep passing on them.

Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy drafting programs including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at miken@ffmastermind.com

PRETZEL MAY

I don't think they should necessarily be avoided but it does need to be factored in. You need to look at the situation surrounding the player and the team as well. Are there other young players behind the holdout chomping at the bit that could fill the void adequately? Has there been a coaching change and therefore a new playbook they need to learn? Has there been a big personnel change like a quarterback that they my need to develop chemistry with? These are not the only factors to consider when drafting but they should definitely be looked at. This year I think everyone suffered from the lockout so contract talks could not even begin until late in the year and since every negotiation takes time the holdouts were that much further behind.

The May brothers have more than 16 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. The cornerstone of FDM is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary on football happenings as well as recommendations on waiver wire pickups, line up submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info, visit www.fantasydraftmaster.com or email us at info@fantasydraftmaster.com.

SAM HENDRICKS

Avoid...never; downgrade in your rankings...by all means. I never dismiss a player out of hand simply because of a holdout or contract dispute. I do expect them to have issues getting back to speed. I do expect them to have a greater chance of injury depending on their own workouts and duration of the holdout. But I adjust my rankings/projections to account for this fact. Then if they are a value play due to the position I can draft them, I may draft them. But I never cross anyone off my draft rankings before draft day unless they are out for the season. I have never met a player I would not draft in the right spot.

Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

IAN ALLAN

No, not really. It seems like Peyton Hillis and DeSean Jackson have been distracted by their contract situations. Normally, the tendency is to believe that guys play harder in that final year of a contract. These guys have played worse. But I don’t believe there’s any rule that fantasy leaguers should carry into their drafts. I don’t think that we should now try to avoid players in contract years.

Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.

K.C. PAYNE

I think every situation is unique and until there is a big enough sample size to generalize each situation, it needs to be looked at as a case-by-case scenario. Maybe Chris Johnson would have been better if he had been in camp since the get-go or maybe getting the money took away some of his drive. Sometimes players have career year in sports when they're in a contract year, others do too much or try and play through an injury to land the big money, costing them production. At the end of the day, it's hard to ascertain what is exactly going on without having any inside information.

RotoWire.com is a fantasy sports news site that focuses on MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, auto racing (mostly NASCAR), golf, college football, college basketball and soccer. The web site features player news, draft kits, mock-draft software, in-season tools, feature stories and statistical data to help fantasy players in each sport. RotoWire hosts a three-hour daily radio show on Sirius-XM, XM 147, Sirius 211 11 AM - 2PM ET, has partnerships with Yahoo! Sports, ESPN, NFL.com and FoxSports, among others. To sign-up for a free-trial to RotoWire.com, go to RotoWire.com/trial..

JARED SMOLA

We're talking about 2 different situations here. I actually like targeting players with "contract situations" -- guys who are looking for new deals. Money is a great motivator. But if that situation spills over into training camp, it's officially time to worry. I never flat-out avoid players, but guys who miss the majority of camp need to be downgraded on draft boards.

Smola is the Senior Editor of DraftSharks.com. DraftSharks has been providing fantasy football analysis since 1999. The site provides its members with feature articles, daily email updates, in-depth player profiles and projections, its exclusive MVP Draft Board, and much more. This past year, Draft Sharks took home the Fantasy Sports Trade Association's award for most accurate preseason projections.

SCOTT SACHS

As a Browns fan, I'll focus on the Madden '12 Cover Boy [no jinx there!], Peyton Hillis. There is no doubt that his contract situation befuddled all those concerned; the player, the agent[s], the President, GM, the rookie coach, all Browns fans--but most importantly, the fantasy footballers. I advised against taking him as a #1 fantasy RB, instead recommending him as a better #2 due to the Browns suddenly injured and crappy O-Line, but even that cautionary advice failed. While I recognize that Hillis had a good game this past weekend, this has been a season to forget. The dollars offered him at the beginning of this season to extend his contract are mind-blowing in comparison to what his market worth is today. There is no way to explain the incredibly stupid actions of his agents--we were told he went through 4 of them! First, he turned down the big money, then he had a couple of decent games, pulled a hammie, had strep throat, agent said he told Hillis to sit out, Hillis denied it, then missed more games, got married secretly on a Tuesday and missed treatment, blew off a bunch of kids at an autograph session--sheesh! Most players that are playing for a new contract typically excel, but not so much this year. So my tip to fellow fantasy owners is: "If the player's acting a bit daft, avoid taking them in your draft!"

Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, live talk and advice, and has 23 years of fantasy football league experience, including his league’s only perfect season. "The Coach" offers a free Chalk Talk Blog, plus subscriber options at his website: perfectseasonffb.com. Email questions or info requests to perfectseasonffbquestions@gmail.com, and follow him on Twitter at http://twitter.com/#!/ffbcoach.

JEFFREY KAMYS

I don't think you have to avoid those types of players altogether, but I think it is smart to manage how many high risk type players you draft, the same concept would be true, with injured or players coming back from injury. Make sure you have some sure things to balance out that high risk.

Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to webmaster@docstats.com.

ANDY RICHARDSON

I think it's a factor, and it depends on the player. With DeSean Jackson, for example, there were signs his attitude might be a problem as far back as last year. To an extent, we knew the Chris Johnson thing might also get ugly. I think there were enough players of similar value at each stage of the draft that you can look away from guys who you think might be problems in the upcoming season due to contract squabbles. I wouldn't not draft such a guy, but it is the kind of thing that will give me pause in the future, sure.

Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past ten years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.

New this season! We'll post the weekly question on Facebook, and the best reader answer will get included in the column. Here is this week's reader winner:

SEAN SULLIVAN

Yes and no. Sometimes players in "contract years" come up with huge seasons trying to get that huge contract...ie Michael Vick last season. Maybe it's better to avoid the player after they get the huge contract...e.g. Michael Vick this season.

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